Katrina Rapidly Intensifying, Heads For Shore Posted: 12:50 AM 28 August 2005
This evening, Katrina has completed an eyewall replacement cycle and is currently intensifying at a rapid pace, with its appearance on satellite imagery growing more impressive by the hour and pressures falling at a fairly substantial rate within the center of the storm, currently at 936mb. Normally, this would support a storm near category 4 intensity; however, the maximum flight level winds found within the storm so far this evening have been 114kt, equating to a weak category 3 at the surface. This has been the trend so far with the storm -- to have lower wind speeds than the pressures would normally support -- but whether or not this continues remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, as the storm nears the diurnal convective max, moves further away from the eyewall replacement cycle, and hits the outer fringes of the Loop Current, the storm should continue to intensify through the overnight hours, potentially reaching beyond category 4 intensity by late morning Sunday.
Another eyewall replacement cycle is likely before landfall, but trying to predict the timing of such an event is beyond our capabilities at this point in time. First, the intensity forecast. Microwave data from around 8p ET suggest a very-well organized system with a developing eye (confirmed by recon) and a solid CDO feature. Buoys and satellite data indicate that sea surface temperatures ahead of the storm are slightly warmer than those it has just passed. As an aside, the intensity of the storm as it passed near the Dry Tortugas can be seen in the buoy data from that location earlier today, where the SST dropped from 85.5F to 82F over the course of a 24hr span. Nevertheless, SSTs ahead of the storm are around 90F, with sub-surface temperatures well into the mid 80s (as supported by a 89ft measurement of 88F at a reporting station about 100mi south of the projected landfall point).
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It is not out of the question for this storm to reach category 5 intensity sometime between now and then; given inner-core fluctuations, however, I do not believe that the storm would landfall at quite that intensity. Nevertheless, winds of 145-150mph are possible with this storm as it makes landfall.
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There is good agreement on landfall occurring early in the afternoon on Monday, though conditions will begin to deteriorate through the evening hours on Sunday. Given the agreement in the model guidance and how the steering flow is currently playing out, I feel reasonably confident in projecting a landfall along the SE coast of Louisiana between 10a-4p CT on Monday afternoon. This would take the storm slightly east of New Orleans -- a dangerous surge and flooding scenario for the city, to say the least -- and inland near the mouth of the Pearl River.
This track would also send high waves and surge well to the east of the storm, potentially flooding the coastline from Mississippi eastward to Escambia Bay, FL. Heavy rain will also be a concern with the storm, but given its intensity and track is not the greatest threat at this time.
I cannot emphasize enough the danger to the entire northern Gulf coast with the forecast track of this storm -- whether mine or the NHC's, which are in large agreement. Note that a track over SE Louisiana would result in very little weakening of the storm by the time it approached New Orleans given the marshy conditions of the lowlands near the Gulf shore.
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There is still some uncertainty as to where this landfall point will be, meaning that those in the warning area (as of the 11p NHC advisory) should seriously consider leaving for higher ground and rushing to completion all precuations to protect life and property.
To put it bluntly, get out now while you still have a chance. This has the potential to be a once-in-a-lifetime catastrophe at this point in time. Find a shelter, find relatives outside of the warning area, or simply find a hotel -- just do not hesitate to leave until it may be too late -- i.e. Sunday night.
Rest at link. ==================================
Lethal and dire predictions everywhere for those poor folks .. tomorrow's going to be harrowing for those who are elderly, disabled, without resources and vehicles and those attempting this last-minute lifesaving exercise. More prayers.
Folks on the Mississppi Gulf Coast should remember Camille.
I was there....all of 11.
I have a nosy question... if some of these people are caught without funds, between paydays- whatever the reason.. are there funds to allow them a tank of gas and the price of a motel room down the road? I'm just curious as I've never had the misfortune of facing a natural disaster (Thank God).