Is a Cat. 5 even possible that far north? The water needed to fuel such just doesn't get warm enough near Delaware, and I'm guessing that Ches. Bay isn't wide enough to sustain a 5.
The Atlantic is heating up, which is what is fueling all of these hurricanes with more frequency and strength, with the potential to stray farther north. It may be cyclical, it may be fossil fuel global warming, stay tuned.
Probably not. Not only is it the warmth of the water but the hurricane draws in energy from all sides. That's why they tend to weaken as they approach land. Almost half the fuel for the storm is cut off. Also an approach perpendicular to land and fast would provide less weakening. As a hurricane went up along the coast it would have a much longer time of having less fuel i.e. heat and moisture.
That's a good question. The bays aren't wide enough to sustain a 5, but it doesn't have to be a 5 to do damage. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have seen its share of hurricanes. There was a cat 1 or 2 hurricane in the 1970s that hit the Susquehanna River valley, and flooded Wilkes-Barre, PA, and many other communities along the banks, killing a bunch of people.
I'm in that area and I work with electric utilities in the region who obviously do a lot of planning for these sorts of things. A Cat 5 is very unlikely but with the huge amount of growth of Bayfront development, a Cat 4 would be just as bad.
The atlantic is about 86 up here right now.......as is the Chesapeake - I don't know the temp of the Delaware, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the 80s as well.
Could it sustain a Cat5? I have no idea. But even a minimal 1 coming up either Bay would do horrendous damage, not just on the shores, but inland because of all the tributasries and rivers off of both bays.
The Great Hurricane of '38 that hit New England nicknamed "The Long Island Express" brought winds of over 180 mph to New England due to the great forward speed of the hurricane, estimated at 70 mph (the fastest known forward speed of a hurricane in history) Over 600 people died in the storm, mostly due to flooding in the storm surge, the storm pushed a great wall of water of up to 25 feet in parts ahead of it. Providence, RI was under 20 feet of water. This is the great danger of hurricanes moving up the east coast, the water temps are not as warm as near Florida or the Gulf of Mexico but they accelerate in forward speed when they get squeezed between the Bermuda High in the east and approaching frontal systems from the west.