Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[silentknight]

Some new images here

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthread.php?s=&postid=452217#post452217

[LA Woman3]

Where is the shelter in Prairieville?

[TomGuy]

[Crawdad]

Key words: "...up to..."

[spunkets]

I think Cajun GIrl is in MO somewhere.

[spectre]

I hear ya, DG. We've been doing these Hurricane threads for years, and I am sick to my stomach today.

The bumper to bumper traffic is a big concern with me.."huge Lake Pontchartrain, crossed by the world's longest bridge, the 23½ mile long Greater New Orleans Causeway". ALL those cars. I can anticipate problems with that :(

sw

[Dad yer funny]

yup , 273 ft high , roof area is almost 10 acres , MASSIVE

[Howlin]

Is that what it looks like now? That's a real satellite picture, not a graphic?

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

I only know it from M*A*S*H. Whenever they had to move the hospital on very short notice, everyone would be crying "Bugout!"

An interesting side note to this, is that Dr Micheal DeBakey, the Houston heart surgeon, who is credited with inventing the MASH concept, was born in Louisiana.

[rang1995]

no superdome left if NO is in the NE quadrent of a cat5+++

[My Favorite Headache]

I was on Hallandale Beach as the eye crossed the other night...I have been in a dozen cane's including Andrew...I can tell you all right now that Katrina felt like a Cat 2 crossing than a Cat 1.

My best friend left for the Mississippi coastline at 3 am this morning for rescue and recovery operations from Georgia. He is a paramedic and nurse.

I told him he better have his will made out. We are truly witnessing an act of God's hand here.

[Carolinamom]

Thanks for that info, spunkets.

[bwteim]

Your images post faster than my TV ;)

[Sprite518]

Oh you know between that loon and the Environmentalist will be coming out soon too. The standard BS in other words..

[rickylc]

Thanks

Will a slight move eastward also reduce the storm surge enough to decrease the possibility of catastrophic flooding?

I'm praying the answer is yes.

[Diddle E. Squat]

The LSU guy who did the studies on how much the city could handle before the levee was breached speculated that the eye of a Cat 5 passing within approx. 30 miles of New Orleans would cause the catastrophic flooding. A bit more on the east side, because the rotation of the winds would drive water north and west into Lake Pontchartrain, then more to the southwest into the spillway west of the city, and the west side levee is apparently the weakest link. It also would eventually drive that water south as the wind came from the north, which might also breach the city's north shore levees.

The worst case scenario is an overtopping of the levee where not only the below sea-level bowl the city is in fills up, but storm surge and waves come in on top of that ending up above the roof of some homes. The next worst case scenario is a levee breach where the bowl fills, but not as deep. If the storm is far enough away that the levee holds against storm surge, then there could be flooding and wind damage, but not as totally devastating and nowhere near the loss of life. As long as the levees hold and aren't overtopped, the pumps should continue to work.

Hence the importance of where the eye path ends up, and why if the path shifts further east to Gulfport, it could make a huge difference.

BTW, the new official forecast track at 10:00 shifted a few miles east again. Of course that is just an estimate, and a pinpoint track doesn't tell the whole story, but it has been slowly trending that way for several updates now.

[Laurita]

Thanks. Deadly.

[LA Woman3]

I haven't heard of any problems on I-49. Callers earlier today said they were able to travel the speed limit. I-59 is smooth sailing per another caller.

[oceanview]

the Mayor on CNN now - saying buses are running to take people to the superdome. How many people do they think they can put in that superdome? I mean, I know it holds alot of people, but not to evacuate any percentage of a city.

[rwfromkansas]

It is pretty bad when the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES HAS TO CALL AND *TELL* YOU to order the evac.