Posted on 05/10/2005 6:11:01 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
The Middle East is just a blip. The American military contest with China in the Pacific will define the twenty-first century. And China will be a more formidable adversary than Russia ever was
For some time now no navy or air force has posed a threat to the United States. Our only competition has been armies, whether conventional forces or guerrilla insurgencies. This will soon change. The Chinese navy is poised to push out into the Pacific—and when it does, it will very quickly encounter a U.S. Navy and Air Force unwilling to budge from the coastal shelf of the Asian mainland. It's not hard to imagine the result: a replay of the decades-long Cold War, with a center of gravity not in the heart of Europe but, rather, among Pacific atolls that were last in the news when the Marines stormed them in World War II. In the coming decades China will play an asymmetric back-and-forth game with us in the Pacific, taking advantage not only of its vast coastline but also of its rear base—stretching far back into Central Asia—from which it may eventually be able to lob missiles accurately at moving ships in the Pacific. In any naval encounter China will have distinct advantages over the United States, even if it lags in technological military prowess. It has the benefit, for one thing, of sheer proximity. Its military is an avid student of the competition, and a fast learner. It has growing increments of "soft" power that demonstrate a particular gift for adaptation. While stateless terrorists fill security vacuums, the Chinese fill economic ones. All over the globe, in such disparate places as the troubled Pacific Island states of Oceania, the Panama Canal zone, and out-of-the-way African nations, the Chinese are becoming masters of indirect influence—by establishing business communities and diplomatic outposts, by negotiating construction and trade agreements. Pulsing with consumer and martial energy, and boasting a peasantry that, unlike others in history, is overwhelmingly literate, China constitutes the principal conventional threat to America's liberal imperium.
How should the United States prepare to respond to challenges in the Pacific? To understand the dynamics of this second Cold War—which will link China and the United States in a future that may stretch over several generations—it is essential to understand certain things about the first Cold War, and about the current predicament of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the institution set up to fight that conflict. This is a story about military strategy and tactics, with some counterintuitive twists and turns.
"...the effect of a single Chinese cruise missile's hitting a U.S. carrier, even if it did not sink the ship, would be politically and psychologically catastrophic, akin to al-Qaeda's attacks on the Twin Towers."
ridiculous comment...a US aircraft carrier is a ship of war filled with men who are warriors. As tragic as the loss of life might be (and our military capability reduced as a result),from the ChiComs taking one out, it is NOT the same thing as attacking a couple of commercial buildings filled with civilians.
I suspect the actual result would be a US military response against China the likes of which the ChiComs would only lament in their last moments of life on earth.
7.) Persuade the Russians to avoid building a pipeline into China. Pressure the Kazakhs to do likewise and fund our own pipelines out of Central Asia to draw off those oil supplies.
8.) Keep the dollar weak, to make oil all the more costly in Yuan.
9.) Keep tanker rates inordinately high.
10.) Sop up surplus oil on the market with massive "strategic" stockpiling, and prod the rest of the world to do the same.
11.) When people like Saddam start doing equity oil deals with the Chinese, overthrow their regimes (Venezuela), occupy their countries (Iraq) or bleed them to death with rebellions and guerrilla war (Sudan).
You will see we are already five years into this economic war. It will last another decade, or until China cracks.
Tell me where you see me saying anything like that?
If you read my posts, you will see that I stated more than once that if China does anything to provoke or attack us or our assets, we should (and can) anihilate them. Quickly.
I just don't agree with your theory, and was trying to express that with a little friendly humor. Maybe you need to get out more, or something.
The answer is in the movie "Deterrence".
I strongly agree.
All communists use the swarm tactic. That is because the more soldiers killed during such an action, the less that communist dictators have to worry about their own military overthrowing them.
No less than the fact that we can destroy China's infrastructure in less then one day, if we chose to.
My point is that we should be pursuing China as our ally, while simultaneously supporting their capitalist direction and weakening their Chicom govt. Everything else after that is total speculation, except for the fact that we can anihilate them if need be.
That is pretty much fact as supported by most others on this thread.
THey care a lot more about their pride than they do 100's of millions of lives or the money.
I dont see that happening right off. I see it from within first then that later. They cut off the Panama Canal which they can NOW do and then what? Ship everything across the country on rail? They damage the rail system and then what? The electrical grid and then what? The air system and on and on?
What did the partisans do during WW2 in Europe? All questions that need to be asked and answered. All it would take is 8 years of a weak kneed democrat in office..like Hilliary.
Good points.
But won't happen.
Thanks for the ping!
Unlike Japan, which is a homogenous, well disciplined society...China is a multi-cultural, widely dispersed society that has no/little history of nationalism.
The so-called "nationalism" in China is nothing more than a facde. Uee a vical minority to cover the fact that the vast majority wants the ChiCom government gone.
Use a vocal minority I meant.
I am always on the look out for fishing and fishy stories:-)
But now who controls the country over there? Do the capitalists control it? Hell they dont even control Russia now do they? Your theory isnt holding up. Ask Japan.
BTW. we could shoot every friggan missile in our arsenal and still not destroy Red China completely. Take a look at the geography of the place. If they are here, are we gonna drop one on ourselves?
It shocked me to read on FR recently
that Bush has still not corrected--supposedly--Billdo's withdrawing our nukes from our planes and ships and subs.
I think it's outrageous that our nukes are not on all our carriers and subs every minute of every day.
In any case, China will attack us. China will invade the west coast and through Mexico. Russia will attack the East coast and take Alaska. Too many reliable people have had too many dreams and visions of such.
The reason America has the most powerful military is that our economy can support it.
America's economy is in decline (reasons too numerous to go into here), while China's is rising. China is no longer a communist country. They are facsist.
Eventually, China's economy (and eventually its military) will surpass ours if things continue on the present course.
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