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HOW WE WOULD FIGHT CHINA
LA NUEVA CUBA ^ | June 2005 | Robert D. Kaplan

Posted on 05/10/2005 6:11:01 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer

The Middle East is just a blip. The American military contest with China in the Pacific will define the twenty-first century. And China will be a more formidable adversary than Russia ever was

For some time now no navy or air force has posed a threat to the United States. Our only competition has been armies, whether conventional forces or guerrilla insurgencies. This will soon change. The Chinese navy is poised to push out into the Pacific—and when it does, it will very quickly encounter a U.S. Navy and Air Force unwilling to budge from the coastal shelf of the Asian mainland. It's not hard to imagine the result: a replay of the decades-long Cold War, with a center of gravity not in the heart of Europe but, rather, among Pacific atolls that were last in the news when the Marines stormed them in World War II. In the coming decades China will play an asymmetric back-and-forth game with us in the Pacific, taking advantage not only of its vast coastline but also of its rear base—stretching far back into Central Asia—from which it may eventually be able to lob missiles accurately at moving ships in the Pacific. In any naval encounter China will have distinct advantages over the United States, even if it lags in technological military prowess. It has the benefit, for one thing, of sheer proximity. Its military is an avid student of the competition, and a fast learner. It has growing increments of "soft" power that demonstrate a particular gift for adaptation. While stateless terrorists fill security vacuums, the Chinese fill economic ones. All over the globe, in such disparate places as the troubled Pacific Island states of Oceania, the Panama Canal zone, and out-of-the-way African nations, the Chinese are becoming masters of indirect influence—by establishing business communities and diplomatic outposts, by negotiating construction and trade agreements. Pulsing with consumer and martial energy, and boasting a peasantry that, unlike others in history, is overwhelmingly literate, China constitutes the principal conventional threat to America's liberal imperium.

How should the United States prepare to respond to challenges in the Pacific? To understand the dynamics of this second Cold War—which will link China and the United States in a future that may stretch over several generations—it is essential to understand certain things about the first Cold War, and about the current predicament of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the institution set up to fight that conflict. This is a story about military strategy and tactics, with some counterintuitive twists and turns.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; chinarussiaalliance; chinesecommies; coldwar; commies; communism; destroagain; internationalism; interventionism; militaryspending; miltarycapacity; neoconservative; putin; russia; socialism; southeastasia; un; unamerican; ussr; zeming
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To: hedgetrimmer
...the effect of a single Chinese cruise missile's hitting a U.S. carrier, even if it did not sink the ship, would be politically and psychologically catastrophic, akin to al-Qaeda's attacks on the Twin Towers.

And with similar payback for the offending party I would suggest. Why would anyone even imagine that we would not annihilate an enemy who did this? We could live with China as an enemy, a ton more easily than they could live with us as an enemy.

101 posted on 05/10/2005 7:41:28 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse

In WW2 we won over Japan due to the overwheming threat of the atomic bomb ( thank God it saved untold numbers of American military lives)---we also had a far better chance to develop a larger economy due to the population size difference (by far on our side)---last, but by no means least, our nation stood together (since we were attacked)and the caliber of those of us who had just come thru a 'depression'---I have many doubts that our soft, decadent society of today would ever stand together as America of the '40's---that doas not even take into account the leftist media, international corporations, and untold numbers of infiltrators we have allowed into our Country---hope I am wrong, time will tell-


102 posted on 05/10/2005 7:43:06 PM PDT by cmotormac44
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To: hedgetrimmer

COMMUNIST CHINESE CROWD TURNS ON YAO, STARTS ROOTING FOR BRAD MILLER
After watching Sacramento Kings’ center Brad Miller outplay the highly favored Houston Rockets’ center Yao Ming by shooting 7-12 from the field and 5-6 from the line Thursday morning, the Communist crowd at Shanghai’s city gymnasium turned its back on Ming and began rooting for the American. Miller, who repeatedly bloodied the face of the tall intimidating Chinaman with a series of elbows in the third quarter, brought the capacity crowd to its feet and had the Communist chanting “Mil-ler, Mil-ler” as time ran down in the fourth quarter. Vice President Zeng Qinghong and Premier WEN Jiabao even convinced a reluctant Chief of State President Hu Jintao to stand and applaud by standing and clapping themselves.

A sweaty and bruised Miller, draped in an American flag, addressed the crowd as his wife ran onto the basketball court, saying, “If I can change, and you can change, everyone can change!” in reference to the lack of Chinese players in the NBA. As Survivor’s “Eye of the Tiger” blasted throughout the gym, Miller and Yao, once bitter rivals, fell into each other’s arms in exhaustion and hugged. "Coming over here, we had two objectives," said Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy. "One was to convince the Chinese that we'd like to see more of them in the NBA. And two, we wanted to sell our Levis for $250 on the street. I think we succeeded."


103 posted on 05/10/2005 7:43:59 PM PDT by philetus (What goes around comes around)
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To: Blueflag; hedgetrimmer
First off...thanks for the ping hedge

Blueflag said..."The greatest threat is the diesel subs. They might get off one lucky snap shot before they died."

JMHO, but to me its a highly asymmetrical game of poker / bluffing or perhaps 'chicken'...and it probably involves diesel subs...and conceivably some state of the art torpedoes the Chinese acquired from Russia.

However this applies if carriers are deployed within the operating range of the diesel subs...which is limited. Activities around Taiwan would fall within that range. Further out in the Pacific..probably not...without some refueling bases. Our satellites would know if those bases were operational.

Its highly asymmetrical because China could afford to lose all of their diesel subs...the cost is negligible...would a US president risk losing even one carrier....the loss of lives and cost would be greater than 9/11 right there. What would our recourse be.... a first strike nuclear attack? Or would we stay conventional?

We could have other aces up our sleeves though...all highly classified ...

We can if need be for all intents and purposes annihilate China with just a couple Trident subs parked right off the coast.

I sure wish, however, that Clinton and his lovable little sock stuffer / plea copper Sandy Berger hadn't stood by while China stole that MIRV technology...
104 posted on 05/10/2005 7:45:03 PM PDT by Dat Mon (will work for clever tagline)
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To: Swiss

Swiss,

No need to wait....Show them (The world) that the US will NOT wait to be attacked... Get rid of Iran and N.K.

Once this is done, you arm Japan with nukes and Taiwan...

China's cards will be?

You can't afford 100 x 911.


105 posted on 05/10/2005 7:48:57 PM PDT by forYourChildrenVote4Bush (Thank you America)
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To: hedgetrimmer

Thanks for the ping bud.

Check out Patrick Robinson's book, Nimitz Class. It's thankfully fiction. Let's keep it that way.

Ping me on any ChiCom .mil developments and any weapons upgrades/developments you come across.

On an unrelated item, if you see any articles about Russian military activity in the Pankisi Gorge (Georgia) in the coming days, weeks, or months, pls ping w/that info., articles, news, etc.


106 posted on 05/10/2005 7:51:41 PM PDT by Bald Eagle777 (Property tax is eternal rent. You can never own your own land. Why?)
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To: Dat Mon
We can if need be for all intents and purposes annihilate China with just a couple Trident subs parked right off the coast.

True, and they know that.

107 posted on 05/10/2005 7:52:16 PM PDT by NewLand (Faith in The Lord trumps all!)
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To: Jeff Head

Nice plus for freerepublic on your web site. You may wish to mention that to the anti-Jeff Head guys.

"With special thanks to many members of the FreeRepublic Web Site and Forum"

BTW, trusting your all healed up, a-OK. Take care man, God Bless


108 posted on 05/10/2005 7:53:46 PM PDT by Bald Eagle777 (Property tax is eternal rent. You can never own your own land. Why?)
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To: Paul_Denton
It was the Shimonesky Treaty that allowed Japan to have Taiwan.

Yes. The Shimonoseki Treaty was the peace treaty for the First Sino-Japanese War in which Japan had soundly defeated China. It also granted Japan Port Arthur, but then the Triple Intervention of France, Russia, and Germany caused Japan to give Port Arthur over to the Russians, and that was a significant initial step leading to the Russo-Japanese War.

109 posted on 05/10/2005 7:54:15 PM PDT by snowsislander
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To: CBart95

I agree. I always get a chuckle reading these We-Are-Doomed or We-Must-Go-MAD posts. Who in their right mind would want a war between China and US. Maybe the enemies of US and China?

Let see, the Chinese want to destroy their number one buyer of their stuff and destroy their economy. The Americans want to destroy all their investments in China, thus sending inflation through the roof and destroying the economy.

Oh yes, I do enjoy the entertainment.


110 posted on 05/10/2005 7:54:34 PM PDT by Fishing-guy
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To: xcamel
How quickly people forget that they've been at it for roughly 4000 years.

How quickly people forget that a scant fifty years ago they were eating grass and afterbirths in the midst of the worst famine in their history, after totally aborting their entire agricultural sector.

China is a mile wide and an inch deep. The trouble in the past was that would be conquerors had a half-mile worth of fuel.

We have no such useless ambitions as to occupy China, and so will not make the mistakes of imperialists in history. China's nascent infrastructure is fragile and marginal, and could basically be crippled by judicious use of irregular forces and airpower. No highways, no gas to the coast. No Three Gorges Dam,. no electricity. No power and no gas to the coast, Chinese boats and airplanes all sitting ducks, full of soon to be dead troops.

111 posted on 05/10/2005 7:57:53 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: hedgetrimmer

Here is how it goes.

They get as many into this nation as they can get to raise hell from within. How many did it take to do that on 911? Then they get as many into Panama as they can. How many are there right now? Who controls the ends of the canal? Then they install a port on one or both ends of the canal as well as in the Caribean and Cuba. They slip in as much military hardware as they can into these ports...small arms, shoulder fired missiles etc. They then install as many advisors into eastern Africa as they can...how many are there now?

They let N Korea start it out by attacking S Korea. While we react to that, they stir things up real well in the Mid east with the help of their advisors from the African nations. While we react to that also, they take a swipe at someone in their own nieghborhood. While we react to that, they start it out in this country up from Panama through Mexico. Keep an eye on the South American countries..lots of Oil comes here from that area and lots of problems down that way and one could bet that most of it is backed by the Chicoms.

How many would it take in the Americas to upset this nation while we react to the problems over seas? I would not be shocked if they have in excess of 500 thousand to 1 million undercover people salted away throughout our region-South America, Central America, The USA, Canada. Keep in mind that these all do not have to be Chinese, the Islamic nut cases would gladly join in the fray. How many commies within our own boarder would join in? How many Europeans would jump in if given the chance and see that the battle was not going good for us? One million people is a heck of a bunch. A small handfull did a huge amount of damage on 911 and we have our backs kind of turned away from the Chicoms at this time and our attention is mostly centered on the Mid East. Lets say that just before they send off, they get 2 million or so into Cuba, Panama, South America, Canada and a few into Mexico. Count every country and divide the total into 2 million. Ten countries would make it just 200 thousand into each country. 20=100 grand. Would you notice one hundred thousand scatered across this country over one year? Heck we cant even stop the Mexicans from jumping the border. I bet we'd even welcome them with open arms if they came as tourists.



George Washingtons Vision? Maybe it isnt so far fetched as some think.


112 posted on 05/10/2005 8:01:37 PM PDT by crz
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To: forYourChildrenVote4Bush
No need to wait....Show them (The world) that the US will NOT wait to be attacked... Get rid of Iran and N.K. Once this is done, you arm Japan with nukes and Taiwan...

I agree. Poliferation works both ways. China and Russia gives nukes to islamic states, it is only a matter of time before Japan and Taiwan get nukes (both could have nukes literally overnight. Japan uses plutonium reactors and Taiwan buys those plutonium reactors from Japan).

113 posted on 05/10/2005 8:02:54 PM PDT by Paul_Denton (Get the U.N. out of the U.S. and U.S. out of the U.N.!)
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To: hedgetrimmer
Complete the task of creating a Nuclear shield, develop energy supplies to reduce our oil consumption to domestic production, Then we ban all Chinese products, sit back with a bowl of popcorn and watch them implode.
114 posted on 05/10/2005 8:10:27 PM PDT by TheForceOfOne (Laura is wonderful so get off her back pinheads!)
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To: Fishing-guy

Maybe they would want it ALL?


115 posted on 05/10/2005 8:13:22 PM PDT by crz
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To: Fishing-guy
I always get a chuckle reading these We-Are-Doomed or We-Must-Go-MAD posts. Who in their right mind would want a war between China and US?

Let see, the Chinese want to destroy their number one buyer of their stuff and destroy their economy. The Americans want to destroy all their investments in China, thus sending inflation through the roof and destroying the economy.

Your cool grasp of reality throws cold water on the wild eyed among us. Have you heard one too many fish stories?

116 posted on 05/10/2005 8:16:51 PM PDT by GOPJ (Liberals haven't had a new idea in 40 years.)
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To: crz

WOW! Quite an imagination you have there...must be that good fresh air in the UP... :-)


117 posted on 05/10/2005 8:17:57 PM PDT by NewLand (Faith in The Lord trumps all!)
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To: NewLand

Yup..and they didnt think Hitler would do what he did either.

I always say, the worst enemy is within us, I.E. those who would say it will never happen.

What the hell, you could just do as Ol Nevil Chamberlin did and wave a paper and say "Peace in our time".


118 posted on 05/10/2005 8:28:05 PM PDT by crz
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To: NewLand
What happens when China eventually gets the capability to do likewise...assuming we don't also have some comprehensive missile defense that is... (Space based Brilliant Pebbles / Laser would be nice IMO)

Will this current crop of leaders in Beijing play MAD the way we played it with the Russians...or do they have some upstart ego driven young military guys...just like Japan had in the precursor to Pearl Harbor?

Why not mention NATIONALISM...an innate powerful force...
119 posted on 05/10/2005 8:31:43 PM PDT by Dat Mon (will work for clever tagline)
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To: NewLand

Maybe you should try reading some of the information that is public knowledge on the matter? Lots of factual stuff on the net, and yes some really wacked out crap. But it is factual that Whampoa owns BOTH ends of the Panama canal. It is factual that they have a very large port in the Carribean. It is a fact that there are in excess of thousands in East Africa-some estimates have it at least 350+ thousand.

Not much imagination in that now is there?


120 posted on 05/10/2005 8:34:06 PM PDT by crz
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