Super Volcano Will Challenge Civilization, Geologists Warn

SPACE.com ^ | March 8, 2005 | Robert Roy Britt

[AntiGuv]

The eruption of a super volcano "sooner or later" will chill the planet and threaten human civilization, British scientists warned Tuesday.

And now the bad news: There's not much anyone can do about it.

Several volcanoes around the world are capable of gigantic eruptions unlike anything witnessed in recorded history, based on geologic evidence of past events, the scientists said. Such eruptions would dwarf those of Mount St. Helens, Krakatoa, Pinatubo and anything else going back dozens of millennia.

"Super-eruptions are up to hundreds of times larger than these," said Stephen Self of the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) Open University.

"An area the size of North America can be devastated, and pronounced deterioration of global climate would be expected for a few years following the eruption," Self said. "They could result in the devastation of world agriculture, severe disruption of food supplies, and mass starvation. These effects could be sufficiently severe to threaten the fabric of civilization."

Self and his colleagues at the Geological Society of London presented their report to the U.K. Government's Natural Hazard Working Group.

"Although very rare these events are inevitable, and at some point in the future humans will be faced with dealing with and surviving a super eruption," Stephen Sparks of the University of Bristol told LiveScience in advance of Tuesday's announcement.

Supporting evidence

The warning is not new. Geologists in the United States detailed a similar scenario in 2001, when they found evidence suggesting volcanic activity in Yellowstone National Park will eventually lead to a colossal eruption. Half the United States will be covered in ash up to 3 feet (1 meter) deep, according to a study published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

Explosions of this magnitude "happen about every 600,000 years at Yellowstone," says Chuck Wicks of the U.S. Geological Survey, who has studied the possibilities in separate work. "And it's been about 620,000 years since the last super explosive eruption there."

Past volcanic catastrophes at Yellowstone and elsewhere remain evident as giant collapsed basins called calderas.

A super eruption is a scaled up version of a typical volcanic outburst, Sparks explained. Each is caused by a rising and growing chamber of hot molten rock known as magma.

"In super eruptions the magma chamber is huge," Sparks said. The eruption is rapid, occurring in a matter of days. "When the magma erupts the overlying rocks collapse into the chamber, which has reduced its pressure due to the eruption. The collapse forms the huge crater."

The eruption pumps dust and chemicals into the atmosphere for years, screening the Sun and cooling the planet. Earth is plunged into a perpetual winter, some models predict, causing plant and animal species disappear forever.

"The whole of a continent might be covered by ash, which might take many years -- possibly decades -- to erode away and for vegetation to recover," Sparks said.

Yellowstone may be winding down geologically, experts say. But they believe it harbors at least one final punch. Globally, there are still plenty of possibilities for super volcano eruptions, even as Earth quiets down over the long haul of its 4.5-billion-year existence.

"The Earth is of course losing energy, but at a very slow rate, and the effects are only really noticeable over billions rather than millions of years," Sparks said.

Human impact

The odds of a globally destructive volcano explosion in any given century are extremely low, and no scientist can say when the next one will occur. But the chances are five to 10 times greater than a globally destructive asteroid impact, according to the new British report.

The next super eruption, whenever it occurs, might not be the first one humans have dealt with.

About 74,000 years ago, in what is now Sumatra, a volcano called Toba blew with a force estimated at 10,000 times that of Mount St. Helens. Ash darkened the sky all around the planet. Temperatures plummeted by up to 21 degrees at higher latitudes, according to research by Michael Rampino, a biologist and geologist at New York University.

Rampino has estimated three-quarters of the plant species in the Northern Hemisphere perished.

Stanley Ambrose, an anthropologist at the University of Illinois, suggested in 1998 that Rampino's work might explain a curious bottleneck in human evolution: The blueprints of life for all humans -- DNA -- are remarkably similar given that our species branched off from the rest of the primate family tree a few million years ago.

Ambrose has said early humans were perhaps pushed to the edge of extinction after the Toba eruption -- around the same time folks got serious about art and tool making. Perhaps only a few thousand survived. Humans today would all be descended from these few, and in terms of the genetic code, not a whole lot would change in 74,000 years.

Sitting ducks

Based on the latest evidence, eruptions the size of the giant Yellowstone and Toba events occur at least every 100,000 years, Sparks said, "and it could be as high as every 50,000 years. There are smaller but nevertheless huge eruptions which would have continental to global consequences every 5,000 years or so."

Unlike other threats to mankind -- asteroids, nuclear attacks and global warming to name a few -- there's little to be done about a super volcano.

"While it may in future be possible to deflect asteroids or somehow avoid their impact, even science fiction cannot produce a credible mechanism for averting a super eruption," the new report states. "No strategies can be envisaged for reducing the power of major volcanic eruptions."

The Geological Society of London has issued similar warnings going back to 2000. The scientists this week called for more funding to investigate further the history of super eruptions and their likely effects on the planet and on modern society.

"Sooner or later a super eruption will happen on Earth and this issue also demands serious attention," the report concludes.

[Strategerist]

Volcanic eruptions frequently eject debris with such force that prevailing air currents have little initial bearing on the distribution pattern. In particular if the volcanic eruption is asymmetrical (as Mount St. Helens was, by example) then the resulting ash zone can easily end up extending completely against the wind direction.

If you're talking about airborne ash, the above is absolute, complete nonsense.

The surface pyroclastic flow (mud, boulders, etc.) of St. Helens extended to the North, as the lateral blast was to the north.

But the Ash fall of St. Helens from the fine ash directed upwards was completely controlled by wind direction at the time of the eruption, as it is for every single volcano in the world.

[massgopguy]

OH MY GOD! THERE'S A BIG BALL OF FIRE IN THE SKY AND IT'S NUCLEAR! ARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHH!

[Loud Mime]

I have many friends who live in Cody, just a few miles downwind from the Volcano. They all know that they are goners if that thing ever pops; the remote risk of that eruption is a small price to pay for living in such a beautiful area.

[bert]

I opened my motel room door one morning in Cody and there was a fox in the adjacent field. beautiful sight

[Mr. Lucky]

The scientists this week called for more funding...

One has to labor all the way to the penulitmate paragraph to discover the real purpose to the story.

[AntiGuv]

Well, I was actually talking about all of it, but my impression was that heavier particulates fell out of the plume swiftly more or less in the direction that they were blasted, while lighter particulates billowed into a vertical plume then subject to wind currents. Perhaps I'm wrong.

[AaronInCarolina]

I once saw Mighty Mouse fly around Krakatoa, creating a knot with his contrails and tying up the exploding volcano. So don't tell me there's nothing we can do about it.

Here I am to save the day!!!!

(If you are not familiar with Mighty Mouse, you will not understand the above!!)

[AntiGuv]

Hey, I found a link that outlines Tephra Fallout and Ash Cloud Mechanics far more accurately than my vague recall of Geology 101.

[monday]

"Cept build nuke power plants and warm your toes on an electric heater next to your hydroponic vegetables."

I expect it would affect us less than the doomsters predict too, although it certainly wouldn't be business as usual.

[OB1kNOb]

I wonder of I should I still make plans to go to Floriduh for Spring Break? The map shows this not affecting them.

[Iscool]

The eruption of a super volcano "sooner or later" will chill the planet and threaten human civilization, British scientists warned Tuesday.

When the sun burns out, which it will "sooner or later", there could be a serious shortage of flashlight batteries...(Now where do I go to get my paycheck for enlightening the world of this impending disaster?)

[AaronInCarolina]

...and there was a fox in the adjacent field.

Just how attractive was this young lady???

[ex-Texan]

More Reports on the Yellowstone Supervolcano

Hit the graphic image:

Many believe that cycical Sun activity and geomagnetic storms may be triggering earthquakes, volcanic activity and magma unrest deep in our planet. The weather may be changing but it is folly to believe that driving cars to work is causing global warming and/or global cooling. Our Sun may release more energy in fifteen minutes that all the motor vehicles on earth do in a year. Want proof? Just walk outside on a sunny day.

But nobody listens to me anyway. I'm just an old geezer living in The Peoples' Republic of Oregon.

[monday]

"That's settled. On to the next story."

Well you could stockpile food and supplies in a shelter if you wanted to. Can't stop it but you could make sure you survive it.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

I opened my motel room door one morning in Cody and there was a fox in the adjacent field. beautiful sight

I shot an elephant in my pajamas. How he got into my pajamas I'll never know.

[saminfl]

"And now the bad news: There's not much anyone can do about it."

We humans can cause the ozone hole and global warming. therefore, we can surely do something about it. /sarcasm

[Kretek]

I think this particular announcment may have more to do with the upcoming BBC docudrama about such a supervolcano explosion in Yellowstone actually taking place. It was supposed to have aired already, but they delayed it because they thought the Tsunami coverage would make their movie look fake.

Do you know what it's called, and whether it'll be shown on BBC America or something else (maybe PBS) here in the States?

[Nick Danger]

Half the United States will be covered in ash up to 3 feet deep

This will happen the day after president Hillary announces the nationwide smoking ban.

[Carry_Okie]

Thanks!

[bert]

for those of you who came in late.... see #63