Posted on 02/07/2005 2:10:42 PM PST by Calpernia
China is modernizing its military forces faster than anyone expected, escalating the potential danger to the island of Taiwan, to American forces and bases in Asia, and to the overall balance of power in the region. "China adheres to the military strategy of active defense and works to speed up the revolution of military affairs (RMA) with Chinese characteristics," says the white paper Beijing issued in December. It points to "leapfrog development" in high-tech weapons for its missile units, navy, and air force. Where many American and Asian analysts said before that China would be able to mount a credible threat between 2010 and 2015, now they are saying it will come earlier, perhaps by 2006 and certainly by 2012.
China seems driven by perceptions that Taiwan, over which Beijing claims sovereignty, is drifting toward formal independence, that the United States is becoming a greater menace as it realigns and strengthens its forces in Asia, and that, more distantly, Japan has begun to assert itself militarily. Behind this military progress has been the rapid growth of the Chinese economy that pays for the military power. China's defense budget is estimated to have ballooned to $80 billion, the world's third largest after the United States and Russia, and almost double that of Japan, which has Asia's second largest defense budget.
The Chinese, who had insisted on self-sufficiency, have bought weapons and technology from abroad, notably from Russia. China could afford those purchases because Beijing's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, rose to $610 billion by the end of 2004, more than 10 times their holdings of $53 billion 10 years ago. To buy even more, the Chinese have been urging the European Union to lift the arms embargo imposed after the uprising in Beijing's Tienanmen Square in 1989 in which unknown hundreds of advocates of democracy were killed by Chinese soldiers.
The United States and Taiwan adamantly oppose easing the restriction.The Chinese, ironically, have learned much from the U.S. armed forces, having intensely studied the lessons learned in the Persian Gulf War of 1991, U.S. deployments to the Balkans in the late 1990s, and most recently by the swift destruction of Saddam Hussein's forces in Iraq. Even so, American military officers contend that the United States has sufficient combat power, notably at sea, in the sky, and with nuclear weapons, to defeat China if hostilities should break out. Said one, however, "it sure complicates our planning."
This assessment of Chinese military power was drawn from the Chinese white paper, a recent defense report published in Taiwan, a Pentagon report to Congress, and conversations with American and Asian analysts with access to intelligence reports. The vanguard of China's military advance has been hardware.Military education and training have been improved as have logistics. But integrating the forces to invade Taiwan or to challenge the United States has lagged. China's missile force, called the Second Artillery, had been deploying 50 to 75 short-range missiles a year; that has increased to more than 100 and in 2006 Second Artillery will have 800 aimed at Taiwan. Accuracy has been doubled so that most missiles would hit within 60 to 90 feet of their targets. Moreover, the missiles have been made mobile to make them less of a target.
In a training drill, a brigade moved 360 miles and was ready to fire in two days. Land-based and air-launched cruise missiles, which are flying torpedoes with stubby wings and advanced navigational devices, have been added to the Chinese inventory to add to their ability to stand off and fire at targets on Taiwan or at U.S. warships at sea. In the Chinese navy, long the stepchild of the People's Liberation Army, submarines are leading the way. In the event of hostilities, they would be tasked with gaining control of the Taiwan Strait between the island and the mainland, and fending off the U.S. Navy. China has bought eight Kilo diesel-electric submarines from Russia and is planning to buy four more.Beijing is also building its own Song class of diesel-electric boats.
Although they lack the range of nuclear-powered submarines, they are quieter and more effective close to shore. For long-range operations, China is building several nuclear-powered attack submarines. China, which has become the world's third largest shipbuilder, has produced about 100 amphibious ships, and four tank landing ships are under construction. That appears to have obliterated a U.S. Navy joke that, because the Chinese lacked amphibious ships, the only way they could invade Taiwan was by swimming. Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia.
You seem to be forgetting all the nations trading with Iraq, in spite of a UN embargo, most notably the French and Germans. With China there would be no embargo, not the least because they have a veto in the UN.
The chicoms are communists. When they embrace freedom, perhaps the "one china" thing can happen, until then we support the concept of a free "one china".
So the Chicom would have us think.
The air power part of the PRC does not match up to her so call super power capability. Today the PLAAF has only 95 Su-27's and 50 Su-30's which have all weather beyond visual range capabilities which the US aircrafts have. By 2005 at the earliest the PRC will start to produce and field the JF-10 fighter (F-16 equivalent). She just tested her first prototype AWAC aircraft. The rest of her airforce is J-8 and MiG-21 type fighters with limited weather capability and visual range engagement only. I think 2015+ the PRC will have a reasonable capability to challenge US/Japan/Taiwan, but not in 2006. Without air cover, ground invasion of Taiwan is not possible.
You are forgetting that Taiwan won't be able to get help from the French for upgrades for their Mirage-2005s.That will leave upto 50 of their best fighters susceptible to breakdowns.What about the EU plan to lift their arms embargo on China(supported by the UK).That would enable China not only to finetune their frontline systems like SU-27/30 & J-10s,but also give much needed electronics upgrades to the J-7 & J-8.India & Poland are 2 examples of nations which have upgraded their Mig-21s to carry BVRAAMs like the Israeli Derby & the AA-12 Adder.So there is no reason why the PLAAF can't do the same & bring their older jets up to standard with Taiwan's F-5s.China will probably recieve it's first A-50 AWACS from Russia this year,while continuing development of an indegnious platform.
You also have to factor in the PLA's ballistic missile strength,which they have deployed for use against the ROCAF & C4I facilities.
Missiles is the PRC's main advantage. After they disable the island they probably can airlift and sealift troops to occupy portions of it, but without air cover, the US can cut those troops off and kill them one by one like we did in Gulf War One. China's air force will be no match to the arriving US forces in 2006. They do not have enough first generation all weather fighters (200 to 300 at best). After 2015 will be another story.
Not unless Taiwan has a nuclear arsenal. If they feel the sh!t is going to hit the fan they will go nuclear, even if the price paid is losing US support.
Which would only strengthen our thirst for vengance. Nothing is more demoralizing to the enemy than a US with all the stops pulled out.
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