Posted on 02/07/2005 2:10:42 PM PST by Calpernia
China is modernizing its military forces faster than anyone expected, escalating the potential danger to the island of Taiwan, to American forces and bases in Asia, and to the overall balance of power in the region. "China adheres to the military strategy of active defense and works to speed up the revolution of military affairs (RMA) with Chinese characteristics," says the white paper Beijing issued in December. It points to "leapfrog development" in high-tech weapons for its missile units, navy, and air force. Where many American and Asian analysts said before that China would be able to mount a credible threat between 2010 and 2015, now they are saying it will come earlier, perhaps by 2006 and certainly by 2012.
China seems driven by perceptions that Taiwan, over which Beijing claims sovereignty, is drifting toward formal independence, that the United States is becoming a greater menace as it realigns and strengthens its forces in Asia, and that, more distantly, Japan has begun to assert itself militarily. Behind this military progress has been the rapid growth of the Chinese economy that pays for the military power. China's defense budget is estimated to have ballooned to $80 billion, the world's third largest after the United States and Russia, and almost double that of Japan, which has Asia's second largest defense budget.
The Chinese, who had insisted on self-sufficiency, have bought weapons and technology from abroad, notably from Russia. China could afford those purchases because Beijing's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, rose to $610 billion by the end of 2004, more than 10 times their holdings of $53 billion 10 years ago. To buy even more, the Chinese have been urging the European Union to lift the arms embargo imposed after the uprising in Beijing's Tienanmen Square in 1989 in which unknown hundreds of advocates of democracy were killed by Chinese soldiers.
The United States and Taiwan adamantly oppose easing the restriction.The Chinese, ironically, have learned much from the U.S. armed forces, having intensely studied the lessons learned in the Persian Gulf War of 1991, U.S. deployments to the Balkans in the late 1990s, and most recently by the swift destruction of Saddam Hussein's forces in Iraq. Even so, American military officers contend that the United States has sufficient combat power, notably at sea, in the sky, and with nuclear weapons, to defeat China if hostilities should break out. Said one, however, "it sure complicates our planning."
This assessment of Chinese military power was drawn from the Chinese white paper, a recent defense report published in Taiwan, a Pentagon report to Congress, and conversations with American and Asian analysts with access to intelligence reports. The vanguard of China's military advance has been hardware.Military education and training have been improved as have logistics. But integrating the forces to invade Taiwan or to challenge the United States has lagged. China's missile force, called the Second Artillery, had been deploying 50 to 75 short-range missiles a year; that has increased to more than 100 and in 2006 Second Artillery will have 800 aimed at Taiwan. Accuracy has been doubled so that most missiles would hit within 60 to 90 feet of their targets. Moreover, the missiles have been made mobile to make them less of a target.
In a training drill, a brigade moved 360 miles and was ready to fire in two days. Land-based and air-launched cruise missiles, which are flying torpedoes with stubby wings and advanced navigational devices, have been added to the Chinese inventory to add to their ability to stand off and fire at targets on Taiwan or at U.S. warships at sea. In the Chinese navy, long the stepchild of the People's Liberation Army, submarines are leading the way. In the event of hostilities, they would be tasked with gaining control of the Taiwan Strait between the island and the mainland, and fending off the U.S. Navy. China has bought eight Kilo diesel-electric submarines from Russia and is planning to buy four more.Beijing is also building its own Song class of diesel-electric boats.
Although they lack the range of nuclear-powered submarines, they are quieter and more effective close to shore. For long-range operations, China is building several nuclear-powered attack submarines. China, which has become the world's third largest shipbuilder, has produced about 100 amphibious ships, and four tank landing ships are under construction. That appears to have obliterated a U.S. Navy joke that, because the Chinese lacked amphibious ships, the only way they could invade Taiwan was by swimming. Richard Halloran is a Honolulu-based journalist and former New York Times correspondent in Asia.
ping
Capitalism + Totalitarianism - 5 Year Plans = China
All of the sudden, one day this past November, they unveiled a missile that looked to have been codeveloped along with the Russian SS-X-26 Iskander. Given all the joint development the PRC already do with engineers in other countries, in the commercial realm, I cannot discount the possibility that the same thing is happening in the miltary realm. Of particular note - consider how such a development model, coupled with PRC serial production, might be used by the Russians to circumvent the INF. Students of history will recognize this trick, which has been used quite successfully before.
The Rummy quote pops into my mind with every one of these articles: "We don't know what we don't know." The PRC is a big place. The military budget numbers they publish are a joke. And we are "looking" elsewhere with a lot of our assets right now.
After a huge fight and big losses China takes over what is left of Taiwan. You Army guys always forget about the Navy. We'll blockade their sorry ass.
If the navy blockades Taiwan after a China invasion, they leave themselves with a lot of ships getting shot at from both sides of a very small body of water. Nothing would be more demoralizing than losing 2 carriers and 11,000 sailors in a week.
Yes, that's the way it's shaping up. I want to be an optimist on this one, but it is perhaps the one place in the world that I feel most pessimistic.
I think we are going to settle Iran's hash here soon; Afghanistan and Iraq have had free elections; even Kim Jong-il's rule may be becoming a bit rocky (though I don't discount disinformation on the part of the North Koreans, especially after we just caught 15 on our southern border.)
But Taiwan I feel is going to be abandoned. I have seen a few things from the U.S. and Japan that are encouraging, but the public statements from Mr. Armitage and Mr. Powell were not strategic ambiguity in my opinion -- they were "One China" all the way.
I can't help thinking we ourselves may be buying China a powerful military with the $s from our huge importation of consumer products from them.
If our senior leadership has the b@lls, your United States Navy has the ships and men to defeat the chicoms. The sooner the better.
All part of Bent Bills unfolding damage and legacy.
You may be right, but history will not look kindly on the US or the President that abandons a democratic Taiwan to the murderous commies.
I think I saw that posted here today.
For all the Communist china-lovers BTTT
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