China Rapidly Expands Military Capability

Honolulu Advertiser (email newsletter) ^ | February 6, 2005 | By Richard Halloran

[investigateworld]

"China would become..."
Not really, the $19.95 DVD player crowd would never let that happen. Notice Wal-marts popularity in the 'Bible Belt', even though it is common knowledge that China persecutes Christians.

[Dat Mon]

You said..."..on the bright side, I don't think China has much to gain from mashing Taiwan into the ground."

You would think so logically. However, how do you explain China's increasingly belligerent stance towards Taiwan?

It may be that the popular consensus goal in China is for Taiwan to become part of China. So perhaps there is the nationalistic urge which has to be satisfied by the government in order to retain control.

[johnd01]

IMHO, China has been making squeaks and farts over Taiwan for well over 10 years now. If China really wanted Taiwan back, they would have quietly rolled over it just like they did every other dissident movement prior to Tianneman Square. I could very well be wrong, but it's my bet that quite a few in the Chinese gov't sees the folly of alienating the sino-motherland and polarizing the world just for a few square miles of an economy they eventually want for themselves.

[Dat Mon]

"If China really wanted Taiwan back, they would have quietly rolled over it just like they did every other dissident movement prior to Tianneman Square."

Perhaps...but China IMO is not ready for this adventure ...just yet. My guess is that it will not happen for another 5-10 years.

If it happens sooner than that, it will be while we are preoccupied with our own problems, such as God forbid...a WMD attack within the US.

[Purple GOPer]

The current US policy is a hodge podge of excuses and convent double talk. Unfortunately it is also reality.

The way I understand it is that the US acknowledges that Taiwan and China are negotiating in order to merge together under "one China", however the US will defend Taiwan if (when) China attacks militarily.

Can someone here with more knowledge on the subject give me a better one sentence answer?

[Dat Mon]

I'm as stumped as you are.

Also now introduce Bush's doctrine of promoting and supporting freedom across the globe, as articulated in his recent speech.

How does that factor into the Taiwan equation. Was it a veiled warning to China?

[El Gato]

A military Chinese action would ruin thier economy, as no other nation would dare trade with them again (except maybe for the "neo-comm" Russians).

You seem to be forgetting all the nations trading with Iraq, in spite of a UN embargo, most notably the French and Germans. With China there would be no embargo, not the least because they have a veto in the UN.

[monkeywrench]

The chicoms are communists. When they embrace freedom, perhaps the "one china" thing can happen, until then we support the concept of a free "one china".

[BroncosFan]

". . . quietly roll[ing] over" a body of water such as the Taiwan Strait is unadviseable.

[RightWhale]

Nothing would be more demoralizing

So the Chicom would have us think.

[Fee]

The air power part of the PRC does not match up to her so call super power capability. Today the PLAAF has only 95 Su-27's and 50 Su-30's which have all weather beyond visual range capabilities which the US aircrafts have. By 2005 at the earliest the PRC will start to produce and field the JF-10 fighter (F-16 equivalent). She just tested her first prototype AWAC aircraft. The rest of her airforce is J-8 and MiG-21 type fighters with limited weather capability and visual range engagement only. I think 2015+ the PRC will have a reasonable capability to challenge US/Japan/Taiwan, but not in 2006. Without air cover, ground invasion of Taiwan is not possible.

[rodguy911]

Not I, just out of curiosity where will Russia stand when China invades Taiwan? Are the Russians the Chinese secret weapon with over 5,000 nucs on their turf.

[sukhoi-30mki]

You are forgetting that Taiwan won't be able to get help from the French for upgrades for their Mirage-2005s.That will leave upto 50 of their best fighters susceptible to breakdowns.What about the EU plan to lift their arms embargo on China(supported by the UK).That would enable China not only to finetune their frontline systems like SU-27/30 & J-10s,but also give much needed electronics upgrades to the J-7 & J-8.India & Poland are 2 examples of nations which have upgraded their Mig-21s to carry BVRAAMs like the Israeli Derby & the AA-12 Adder.So there is no reason why the PLAAF can't do the same & bring their older jets up to standard with Taiwan's F-5s.China will probably recieve it's first A-50 AWACS from Russia this year,while continuing development of an indegnious platform.

You also have to factor in the PLA's ballistic missile strength,which they have deployed for use against the ROCAF & C4I facilities.

[RetiredArmy]

Right. One carrier and 50 jets. If the Reds attack, there is not enough time to send a bunch of carriers there. Most carriers are in port or are in the middle eastern areas. I live in Bremerton, WA. The Stennis just put in here from California after the Reagan came down there. Stennis is undergoing repairs for several months, thus is not ready for sea. Like I said, short of nukes, IF THE RED CHINESE want to attack, they will. We don't have enough ships to form a blockade of that entire area.

[RetiredArmy]

The United States abandoned Tawian when it did not veto the change in the wonderful UN to de-recognize Tawian and recognize the communist Red Chinese as the one and only voice of China. WE LET TAWIAN DOWN.

[Fee]

Missiles is the PRC's main advantage. After they disable the island they probably can airlift and sealift troops to occupy portions of it, but without air cover, the US can cut those troops off and kill them one by one like we did in Gulf War One. China's air force will be no match to the arriving US forces in 2006. They do not have enough first generation all weather fighters (200 to 300 at best). After 2015 will be another story.

[Paul_Denton]

One of these days, Red China is going to attack and invade Taiwan. Thousands will die. The UN will whine and complain. No one will be able to do a damned thing about it. We will all sit on our hands and watch a free country, a free people, be overwhelmed by the huge PLA and kill thousands. We have no ability short of nukes to stop it. We will not use nukes. One day, maybe soon, Red China is going to attack. Taiwan, no matter how hard they fight, will die. They will be overcome, and ruled by the communists.

Not unless Taiwan has a nuclear arsenal. If they feel the sh!t is going to hit the fan they will go nuclear, even if the price paid is losing US support.

[Paul_Denton]

If the navy blockades Taiwan after a China invasion, they leave themselves with a lot of ships getting shot at from both sides of a very small body of water. Nothing would be more demoralizing than losing 2 carriers and 11,000 sailors in a week.

Which would only strengthen our thirst for vengance. Nothing is more demoralizing to the enemy than a US with all the stops pulled out.