Harris Poll Internal - 24% of LIKELY VOTERS have voted! BUSH AHEAD 50-44!!!!

Harris Interactive ^ | 11/1 | Harris Interactive (TELEPHONE survey)

[JingoJim]

"Who did you vote for?" Base: All likely voters(1) who have already voted (Approximately 24 percent of all "Likely Voters")

% George W. Bush 50 John Kerry 44 Ralph Nader 1 Michael Badnarik 1 Other * Not sure/Refused 4

Based on combined online and telephone survey data. (1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. Note: This base includes ONLY those likely voters who have already voted in this election.

[Paleo Conservative]

MSNBC already talking about a hypothetical Kerry loss and the aftermath.

I am against this kind of media speculation about elections in which voting has not completed. While I am excited about watching Kerry make an concession speech acknowledging that he will never reach his life's goal, I would be very upset if this kind of speculation were being made about a Republican candidate.

[Paleo Conservative]

Looks like their numbers of early voting match up nicely with the final numbers.

Yes, but I wish they would keep their results private till after the polls close. Also, just because predictions about early voting have been made does not negate the necessity of getting those who have not voted to the polls today. Results like this could make some people complacent.

[line drive to right]

Those vote numbers on Ohio Sec. of State seem funny: no large margin for either guy anywhere; vote counts such as Bush 10,000 and Kerry 10,000; a county or more where write-ins have more than both Bush and Kerry; etc. I'm guessing that they're just running some tests, figuring nobody is paying attention at 3 a.m.

[backhoe]

...and over the last 30 years or so, Harris has
generally been the most accurate poll...  http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

[MeekOneGOP]

..... Texas like other states with early voting has had phenomenal turnout this year. We had 30% of the registered voters turn out! .....

Yep! Some local areas had as high as > 41% turnout!

I already cast my vote for Dubya !!

Early voting begins in Texas today 10-18-2004
BUSY polling place this morning!

Here is an interesting site that tracks Early Voting in Texas.

---

Early Voting - October 29, 2004

November 2, 2004
Early Voting
Cumulative Totals
Thru Close of Business
October 29, 2004

County	Reg Voters	# In Person On Oct. 29	Cum. In- Person Voters	Cum. % In- Person	Cum. By Mail Voters	Cum. In- Person And Mail Voters	Cum. Percent Early Voting
Harris	1,937,072	67,155	412,129	21.28%	24,767	436,896	22.55%
Dallas	1,231,291	47,303	322,738	26.21%	23,991	346,729	28.16%
Tarrant	918,656	43,622	290,746	31.65%	14,920	305,666	33.27%
Bexar	908,466	35,162	256,531	28.24%	18,255	274,786	30.25%
Travis	584,949	30,171	207,839	35.53%	9,589	217,428	37.17%
El Paso	371,856	12,165	92,115	24.77%	4,305	96,420	25.93%
Collin	369,412	20,815	150,001	40.61%	3,565	153,566	41.57%
Denton	321,700	16,297	113,792	35.37%	2,840	116,632	36.25%
Hidalgo	269,811	11,834	58,952	21.85%	2,838	61,790	22.90%
Fort Bend	254,364	13,882	78,519	30.87%	5,446	83,965	33.01%
Montgomery	214,098	9,079	67,080	31.33%	2,943	70,023	32.71%
Nueces	201,707	7,411	50,699	25.13%	2,332	53,031	26.29%
Williamson	200,344	11,801	75,494	37.68%	1,648	77,142	38.50%
Galveston	185,911	10,748	59,833	32.18%	4,881	64,714	34.81%
Jefferson	165,174	9,137	51,751	31.33%	2,413	54,164	32.79%
Total	8,134,811	346,582	2,288,219	28.13%	124,733	2,412,952	29.66%

[goldstategop]

Bush is up in OH by a razor-thin margin. Time to crank up the state's GOTV drive today.

[MeekOneGOP]

Mornin'! See post #85 .....

[BunnySlippers]

How do you get this? This is not what the link says.

[MeekOneGOP]

% George W. Bush 50 John Kerry 44 Ralph Nader 1
Michael Badnarik 1 Other * Not sure/Refused 4

[BunnySlippers]

It would be nice if the poster included the information on the link he provided. Which, BTW, was not to Harris but to the PR news wire. Although I think Bush will win the link had mixed numbers.

[Luke21]

My state (Arizona) may not pay for the return of the ballot without postage but my county does. My wife and I didn't have to pay for a stamp for our mail in ballots.

[goldstategop]

Looks like the final numbers will have Bush up by six. That's an excellent sign!

[HitmanLV]

I been saying Bush 50 to Kerry 45, or Bush 51 to Kerry 46, for a while now. Nice to see it supported in a poll!

[hchutch]

A good sign so far... 50-44 with 4 percent refusing to answer?

That's a 51-47 race assuming that the undecideds do 3-1 for Kerry. Good news - it confirms the earlier CBS/New York Times results.

[backhoe]

It would be nice if the poster included the information on the link he provided. Which, BTW, was not to Harris but to the PR news wire

If you will examine the table in the link provided, it shows zero margin of error for Harris. There is no better standard.

[rotundusmaximus]

Amen!

[rotundusmaximus]

Here is the 2000 final polls including Harris

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
2000-Preliminary

	Gore	Bush	Nader	Un- decided	Other	Gore- Bush	Margin Error Poll - Elect	Candidate Error
Election Result	48%	48%	3%		1%	0%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1.0%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%	1%	1%	0.5%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%	-2%	2%	1.0%
IBD/CSM/Tipp	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%	-3%	3%	1.5%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%	-3%	3%	1.5%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%	-5%	5%	2.5%
					Avg. Error		2.2%	1.1%

 

[Constantine XIII]

I agree, he's a loser, but not to worry. I'd bet that most of those votes come from blood red states.

Those guys are wacky, but they (most of em anyway) aren't suicidal.

[backhoe]

Thanks- good clarification.

[Stentor]

Just saw Ed Goeas on CNBC. He said that movement was toward Bush in the "target" states. FWIW.