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***FINAL*** CAMEC - COMPUTER ANALYSIS MODEL OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE ***FINAL*** 10/31
10-31-04 | Josh in PA

Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

........Bush    	Kerry   	Nader	Others	Bush %	Kerry %	BUSH EV	KERRY EV
AL      1,081,230 	671,538 	14,250 	14,250 	60.7%	37.7%	9	
AK	214,668 	128,358 	17,705 	8,115 	58.2%	34.8%	3	
AZ	984,376 	828,949 	N/A	37,007 	53.2%	44.8%	10	
AR	604,025 	521,502 	10,315 	10,315 	52.7%	45.5%	6	
CA	5,340,714 	6,342,098 	N/A	238,425	44.8%	53.2%		55
CO	1,098,165 	975,669 	45,130 	30,087 	51.1%	45.4%	9	
CT	705,326 	881,658 	28,705 	24,604 	43.0%	53.8%		7
DE	178,960 	219,633 	5,084 	3,050 	44.0%	54.0%		3
DC	33,531 	        216,664 	5,159 	2,579 	13.0%	84.0%		3
FL	3,508,207 	3,202,259 	54,391 	33,994 	51.6%	47.1%	27	
GA	1,606,182 	1,179,187 	N/A	42,417 	56.8%	41.7%	15	
HI	247,879 	244,345 	N/A	12,621 	49.1%	48.4%	4	
ID	362,351 	166,987 	N/A	16,371 	66.4%	30.6%	4	
IL	2,323,137 	2,833,602 	N/A	52,088 	44.6%	54.4%		21
IN	1,540,899 	1,103,327 	N/A	40,267 	57.4%	41.1%	11	
IA      840,978 	807,271 	20,224 	16,853 	49.9%	47.9%	7	
KS	749,881 	481,248 	22,917 	19,097 	58.9%	37.8%	6	
KY	1,086,136 	742,069 	16,738 	14,879 	58.4%	39.9%	8	
LA	1,117,209 	887,256 	14,245 	16,280 	54.9%	43.6%	9	
ME	364,288 	393,337 	19,628 	7,851 	46.4%	50.1%	1	3
MD      990,427 	1,261,588 	27,576 	18,384 	43.1%	54.9%		10
MA	1,136,961 	1,780,242 	N/A	74,800 	38.0%	59.5%		12
MI	2,302,668 	2,354,679 	37,826 	33,098 	48.7%	49.8%		17
MN	1,343,268 	1,323,920 	55,279 	41,459 	48.6%	47.9%	10	
MS	693,712 	470,733 	7,079 	8,258 	58.8%	39.9%	6	
MO	1,394,513 	1,270,676 	N/A	26,921 	51.8%	47.2%	11	
MT	313,797 	184,004 	13,031 	10,425 	60.2%	35.3%	3	
NE	524,723 	278,425 	12,356 	8,237 	63.7%	33.8%	5	
NV      405,026 	367,773 	11,889 	7,926 	51.1%	46.4%	5	
NH	302,590 	308,228 	9,397 	6,265 	48.3%	49.2%		4
NJ	1,584,417 	1,751,378 	44,296 	27,259 	46.5%	51.4%		15
NM	397,722 	367,128 	11,767 	7,845 	50.7%	46.8%	5	
NY 	3,072,429 	4,198,490 	111,860 74,574 	41.2%	56.3%		31
NC	1,860,069 	1,575,506 	N/A	34,703 	53.6%	45.4%	15	
ND	211,063 	119,914 	6,931 	8,664 	60.9%	34.6%	3	
OH	2,904,354 	2,743,956 	N/A	80,199 	50.7%	47.9%	20	
OK	869,148 	512,002 	N/A	13,951 	62.3%	36.7%	7	
OR      800,537 	854,582 	N/A	33,778 	47.4%	50.6%		7
PA	2,636,463 	2,679,419 	N/A	53,696 	49.1%	49.9%		21
RI      209,236 	307,165 	13,378 	5,351 	39.1%	57.4%		4
SC	958,439 	660,879 	13,152 	11,508 	58.3%	40.2%	8	
SD	217,057 	147,183 	4,460 	2,973 	58.4%	39.6%	3	
TN	1,327,809 	1,004,126 	16,539 	14,176 	56.2%	42.5%	11	
TX	4,569,221 	2,822,166 	N/A	74,660 	61.2%	37.8%	34	
UT	614,659 	255,056 	18,025 	13,519 	68.2%	28.3%	5	
VT	135,032 	174,215 	9,715 	4,857 	41.7%	53.8%		3
VA	1,693,700 	1,481,988 	N/A	32,078 	52.8%	46.2%	13	
WA	1,258,821 	1,399,302 	41,318 	55,091 	45.7%	50.8%		11
WV	394,177 	342,568 	6,732 	4,488 	52.7%	45.8%	5	
WI	1,500,290 	1,431,138 	45,099 	30,066 	49.9%	47.6%	10	
WY	129,249 	67,079 	        3,068 	5,113 	63.2%	32.8%	3	

TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227

50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%



TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: avanitynotapoll; awholelottanuthin; baloneyvanity; bogussource; bush; camec; camecisjustmylaptop; camecmeansvanity; election; electoralcollege; electoralvotes; enviouscrabs; freepersripafreeper; frforselfpublishing; ijustmadeitallup; jealousyinfreepers; kerry; lotsofwastedtime; nosource; polls; prediction; pulledoutofmyass; purplestates; sourcelessvanity; votes; wishesinastatformat
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To: Josh in PA

" Should I vote for Kerry after I didn't vote for Kerry"?

141 posted on 10/31/2004 8:23:27 PM PST by jetson (throne)
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To: Kahuna
As a Hawaiian and watching football and non stop 527 (Soros) commercials today I tend to agree that we may come up about 4 points short.

Trust me, I wanna be wrong. Just don't count on Hawaii and make it happen on the mainland so I can get some rest early on 11/2.

I certainly haven't given up on the president carrying your beautiful state. It's great to see it competitive.

Though Hawaii has been leaning (or, more accurately, lunging) to the left in recent Presidential elections, there is hope: military retirees; the large and influential Japanese population (possible move toward Bush as a reflection of Japan's status as a supporter of the war on terrorism); backers of strong defense in general, as a location which has been attacked before; and your Governor, proof that the Hawaii GOP is alive and kicking.

A Bush upset win in Hawaii would be great fun. I'm not as surprised as some seem to be by the polls showing the race tight. If the race is going well on the mainland, perhaps enough Hawaiian Bush supporters will make a late decision to go vote to tip the state.

142 posted on 10/31/2004 8:25:56 PM PST by southernnorthcarolina (I support tax cuts for the rich... and I VOTE!)
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To: jetson

Hey Moe!

I voted for free lunch!

whew whew whew

MV


143 posted on 10/31/2004 8:26:01 PM PST by madvlad
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To: Texas Songwriter
Because Bush is honest and Republicans are not known to lie and cheat like the Democrats. Over 60% of the Republicans are faithful church goers while less than 40% of the Dems go to church faithfully, which says a lot right there. They don't have the same moral standards and convictions as the Republicans do. Another words the Democrats are evil and the Republicans are un-evil. Next question? :-]
144 posted on 10/31/2004 8:26:26 PM PST by dmw
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To: madvlad


No, my projected popular vote total is just over 120 million, not 140 million.


145 posted on 10/31/2004 8:27:11 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: madvlad

It shows the importance of this election to americans.


146 posted on 10/31/2004 8:29:40 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: Josh in PA

Yep, sorry. My calculator is saying its time to log
off and watch "Cheers".

Does anybody think that Sam Malone looks like
Skerry? Or is it just me.

MV


147 posted on 10/31/2004 8:30:09 PM PST by madvlad
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To: Josh in PA

ping


148 posted on 10/31/2004 8:31:45 PM PST by granite (IT IS UP TO US NOW.)
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To: Josh in PA

Lovely. Perhaps irrelevant, but a lovely way to end the night, nonetheless.


149 posted on 10/31/2004 8:33:36 PM PST by MHT
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To: TNCMAXQ
How is it possible Gallup could have Mr Bush up by 8 in FL just 6 days ago while today they say he is down by 3??

Because the polls suck. Ignore them. My prediction of a Dubya win is based on three things:

1. Where the candidates are--2/3 of the stops for BOTH are in blue states. That means Dubya's on offense big time.

2. The nature of candidate rallies--Dubya is filling stadiums in minority heavy Dem strongholds (Detroit and Cincy) and is specifically asking Dems for their votes when he makes blue state appearances. Kerry's appearances are also in Dem strongholds (Philly, Madison, WI), he never strays from the big cities even in the blue states, and to get a big crowd he has to bring along a rock star (Springsteen, Clinton) and/or bus people in. Half the folks at the Philly rally were city workers.

3. The Ohio and Florida GOP-GOTV efforts are fantastic and undecides always either split down the middle or swing overwhelmingly toward the incumbent in presidential races.

Now, add in the polls (which look good for Bush overall) and the Bin Laden tape (sure to help Bush) and we're looking pretty darn good.

150 posted on 10/31/2004 8:34:19 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Two days left to be a Bush goon! Freepmail me to get on your state's Kerrytrack list today!)
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To: Kahuna

Back, back, back, back, back, back!

He could go all the way!

MV


151 posted on 10/31/2004 8:34:37 PM PST by madvlad
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To: Josh in PA

10-4. Do what you can, and keep your priorities (i.e., this one should be pretty low on the list). Sleep tight, soldier.


152 posted on 10/31/2004 8:36:39 PM PST by brewcrew
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To: pbrown

I can't find the orginal post.

For what its worth, the NE Pats 21-game win
streak was napped by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The weekend reeked of upsets w/ Miami and
FLA State going down to sucky UNC and MD,
respectively.

MV


153 posted on 10/31/2004 8:38:47 PM PST by madvlad
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To: Josh in PA

I like your numbers. i'll want to look at this on wed.


154 posted on 10/31/2004 8:42:58 PM PST by CPT Clay (57 in '04)
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To: Josh in PA

My brain thinks Bush will do even better than this.


155 posted on 10/31/2004 8:43:13 PM PST by SamAdams76 (Red Sox Win The World Series...And Bush Wins Re-election in 45 hours!)
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To: Josh in PA

Thanks for the work and posting.

This seems logical and possible. Too gad you can't factor in last minute media distortion.


156 posted on 10/31/2004 8:46:38 PM PST by rightinthemiddle (Tell Fox News You Want the Truth, Not "Fair & Balanced.")
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To: TNCMAXQ

By using a 4% higher democrat sample!!


157 posted on 10/31/2004 8:46:57 PM PST by CyberAnt (Election 2004: This election is for the SOUL OF AMERICA)
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To: Josh in PA
Search CAMEC on FR for older projections from earlier this year and for more information.

CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well.

From a search of Free Republic for "CAMEC":

***FINAL***
CAMEC - COMPUTER ANALYSIS MODEL OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE
***FINAL*** 10/31

  Posted by Josh in PA
On News/Activism 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST · 156 replies · 6,163+ views


10-31-04 | Josh in PA
 

CAMEC 9-19-04
  Posted by Josh in PA
On News/Activism 09/19/2004 7:45:52 AM PDT · 4 replies · 278+ views


9-19-04 | Josh in PA
 

Post-GOP Convention, CAMEC
(Computer Analysis Model of Electoral College)

  Posted by Josh in PA
On News/Activism 09/11/2004 4:13:30 AM PDT · 32 replies · 1,191+ views


9/11/04 | Josh in PA

158 posted on 10/31/2004 8:56:36 PM PST by RonDog
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To: Josh in PA

Thanks!


159 posted on 10/31/2004 9:15:35 PM PST by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
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To: Jewels1091
My son is 26, NEVER cared about politics at all, neither has my husband...they always said it didn't matter. THIS YEAR THEY ARE VOTING FOR THE FIRST TIME!!!

My 93 year old mother is in poor health and has been housebound for the past few years. She was registered as a Democrat the last time she voted, but she has moved here from FL since then. After Kerry was nominated she had me register her by mail as a Republican, and I also requested a mail-in ballot for her.

Last week she cast her first vote since 1984, and it was a straight Republican ballot. I guess that after 44 years of me trying to convince her that the Democrat party is no longer the party of Truman and FDR my legendary powers of persuasion finally won her over.

Or maybe it was because she thinks Kerry is a dorky looking Frenchman, and I haven't quite gotten around to telling her the truth yet. The truth about Kerry not being French I mean, she's right about him looking like a dork. Especially when he wears camo hunting garb and totes a shotgun, a gun which I'm sure he hates and would love to wrap around the nearest tree if no photographer was around.

160 posted on 10/31/2004 9:28:54 PM PST by epow
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