Post-GOP Convention, CAMEC (Computer Analysis Model of Electoral College)

9/11/04 | Josh in PA

[Josh in PA]

The 9/10 CAMEC Results. CAMEC (Computere Analysis Model of Electoral College) is based on a formula I've devised that takes in in all available polling data, past election results, registration trends, and other indicators, and then spits out a number of how things would turn out if the election were held today.

Last Analysis was completed on 8/28 the weekend before the RNC Convention, and gave Bush a 284-254 victory.

9/10 Analysis

9 EV - Alabama - Bush +21
3 EV - Alaska - Bush +25
10 EV - Arizona - Bush +13
6 EV - Arkansas - Bush +8
55 EV - California - Kerry +6
9 EV - Colorado - Bush +8
7 EV - Connecticut - Kerry +7
3 EV - Delaware - Kerry +6
3 EV - District Of Columbia - Kerry +71
27 EV - Florida - Bush +7
15 EV - Georgia - Bush +17
4 EV - Hawaii - Kerry +8
4 EV - Idaho - Bush +33
21 EV - Illinois - Kerry +8
11 EV - Indiana - Bush +17
7 EV - Iowa - Bush +3
6 EV - Kansas - Bush +21
8 EV - Kentucky - Bush +18
9 EV - Louisiana - Bush +13
4 EV - Maine - Kerry +1
10 EV - Maryland - Kerry +7
12 EV - Massachusetts - Kerry +21
17 EV - Michigan - Kerry +1
10 EV - Minnesota - Bush +3
6 EV - Mississippi - Bush +22
11 EV - Missouri - Bush +8
3 EV - Montana - Bush +23
5 EV - Nebraska - Bush +27
5 EV - Nevada - Bush +7
4 EV - New Hampshire - Bush +5
15 EV - New Jersey - Kerry +5
5 EV - New Mexico - Bush +4
31 EV - New York - Kerry +16
15 EV - North Carolina - Bush +9
3 EV - North Dakota - Bush +26
20 EV - Ohio - Bush +8
7 EV - Oklahoma - Bush +26
7 EV - Oregon - Bush +3
21 EV - Pennsylvania - Bush +1
4 EV - Rhode Island - Kerry +21
8 EV - South Carolina - Bush +15
3 EV - South Dakota - Bush +17
11 EV - Tennessee - Bush +9
34 EV - Texas - Bush +22
5 EV - Utah - Bush +41
3 EV - Vermont - Kerry +12
13 EV - Virginia - Bush +9
11 EV - Washington - Kerry +1
5 EV - West Virginia - Bush +7
10 EV - Wisconsin - Bush +4
3 EV - Wyoming - Bush +40

Bush 338 / Kerry 200

New Bush States: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21)

[Jet Jaguar]

Interesting. Please ping me the next time you run the numbers.

[AmericaUnited]

If you want to be happy, choose to live in a +15 or greater Bush state.

[ninonitti]

Add Maine, Michigan and Washington (Kerry Up only 1 in each)and we're talking hugh landslide!

[Always Right]

Showing Bush plus 7 in Florida is wishful thinking. Most polls show the race is much closer.

[xtinct]

Josh...

Thanks a bunch...

I'm going to match the +15 states with my list of best states in which to live.

I moving soon. Living and working among the libs is painful.

Common sense is foreign word here.

[StAnDeliver]

Even so, this new electoral realignment means that Florida is not a linchpin this time. If Bush holds his entire 2000 base and also makes deep inroads into Rust Belt and wins states like WI, MI, etc., there's no electoral math that can save Kerry.

[Josh in PA]

And Most polls are wrong too.

Where did they have Jeb in 02?


Bush is up 7 in Florida.

[2-in-Texas]

I'm surprised by your number for Texas. I would think Bush will carry more than 22 of 34. I don't remember---what was the number in 2000?

[Josh in PA]

Texas was 21 in 2000.

[skaterboy]

I said it earlier and ill say it again.If Rasmussen doesn't show Bush breaking 50 over the next couple of days then he is worthless.Rather and now 9/11 has to push Bush over 50.I dont have much respect for Rasmussen but he is dead if 50 doesn't happen

[Arkie2]

I saw a poll yesterday that said Oregon was pretty much in the bag for Kerry.

[martin_fierro]

CAMEC (Computere Analysis Model of Electoral College) is based on a formula I've devised that takes in in all available polling data

Does your computere have a spell-checkere? < |:)~

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Glad to see Iowa has moved to the Bush column. Hope we can hold off cheating enough to deliver.

[Future Useless Eater]

Great job! Very believable. Are you factoring in anything
for the two BATTLEGROUND states that have MARRIAGE AMENDMENTS
on their ballot?

OREGON and MICHIGAN

[Future Useless Eater]

If you're starting a list, ping me next time too please.

[Future Useless Eater]

>>saw a poll yesterday that said Oregon was pretty much in the bag for Kerry.

No doubt one of the junk Zogby polls

[sharktrager]

22% is his lead, not 22 of 34.

[TimPatriot]

I sadly live in Massachusetts, but there is no f'ing way John F'ing Kerry is going to win by 25pts in Massachusetts!!! Kerry is simply not popular, we have a Republican governor in Mitt Romney who won easily two years ago. I went to that Sox/Yankees game during the DNC week, and there were way many more boos when Kerry came out to bounce and roll the first pitch. I know that is anecdotal, but I believe their is real political change occuring in this state. AM Talk radio, and an FM talk station that has mostly conservative hosts (though not all) has been devastating to the dems here I believe.

[philo]

If Bush wins the socialist state of Washington. I'll personally eat an IBM selectric typewriter.