" Should I vote for Kerry after I didn't vote for Kerry"?
Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA
CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EVAL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182 1,179,187 N/A 42,417 56.8% 41.7% 15 HI 247,879 244,345 N/A 12,621 49.1% 48.4% 4 ID 362,351 166,987 N/A 16,371 66.4% 30.6% 4 IL 2,323,137 2,833,602 N/A 52,088 44.6% 54.4% 21 IN 1,540,899 1,103,327 N/A 40,267 57.4% 41.1% 11 IA 840,978 807,271 20,224 16,853 49.9% 47.9% 7 KS 749,881 481,248 22,917 19,097 58.9% 37.8% 6 KY 1,086,136 742,069 16,738 14,879 58.4% 39.9% 8 LA 1,117,209 887,256 14,245 16,280 54.9% 43.6% 9 ME 364,288 393,337 19,628 7,851 46.4% 50.1% 1 3 MD 990,427 1,261,588 27,576 18,384 43.1% 54.9% 10 MA 1,136,961 1,780,242 N/A 74,800 38.0% 59.5% 12 MI 2,302,668 2,354,679 37,826 33,098 48.7% 49.8% 17 MN 1,343,268 1,323,920 55,279 41,459 48.6% 47.9% 10 MS 693,712 470,733 7,079 8,258 58.8% 39.9% 6 MO 1,394,513 1,270,676 N/A 26,921 51.8% 47.2% 11 MT 313,797 184,004 13,031 10,425 60.2% 35.3% 3 NE 524,723 278,425 12,356 8,237 63.7% 33.8% 5 NV 405,026 367,773 11,889 7,926 51.1% 46.4% 5 NH 302,590 308,228 9,397 6,265 48.3% 49.2% 4 NJ 1,584,417 1,751,378 44,296 27,259 46.5% 51.4% 15 NM 397,722 367,128 11,767 7,845 50.7% 46.8% 5 NY 3,072,429 4,198,490 111,860 74,574 41.2% 56.3% 31 NC 1,860,069 1,575,506 N/A 34,703 53.6% 45.4% 15 ND 211,063 119,914 6,931 8,664 60.9% 34.6% 3 OH 2,904,354 2,743,956 N/A 80,199 50.7% 47.9% 20 OK 869,148 512,002 N/A 13,951 62.3% 36.7% 7 OR 800,537 854,582 N/A 33,778 47.4% 50.6% 7 PA 2,636,463 2,679,419 N/A 53,696 49.1% 49.9% 21 RI 209,236 307,165 13,378 5,351 39.1% 57.4% 4 SC 958,439 660,879 13,152 11,508 58.3% 40.2% 8 SD 217,057 147,183 4,460 2,973 58.4% 39.6% 3 TN 1,327,809 1,004,126 16,539 14,176 56.2% 42.5% 11 TX 4,569,221 2,822,166 N/A 74,660 61.2% 37.8% 34 UT 614,659 255,056 18,025 13,519 68.2% 28.3% 5 VT 135,032 174,215 9,715 4,857 41.7% 53.8% 3 VA 1,693,700 1,481,988 N/A 32,078 52.8% 46.2% 13 WA 1,258,821 1,399,302 41,318 55,091 45.7% 50.8% 11 WV 394,177 342,568 6,732 4,488 52.7% 45.8% 5 WI 1,500,290 1,431,138 45,099 30,066 49.9% 47.6% 10 WY 129,249 67,079 3,068 5,113 63.2% 32.8% 3TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227
50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%
" Should I vote for Kerry after I didn't vote for Kerry"?
Trust me, I wanna be wrong. Just don't count on Hawaii and make it happen on the mainland so I can get some rest early on 11/2.
I certainly haven't given up on the president carrying your beautiful state. It's great to see it competitive.
Though Hawaii has been leaning (or, more accurately, lunging) to the left in recent Presidential elections, there is hope: military retirees; the large and influential Japanese population (possible move toward Bush as a reflection of Japan's status as a supporter of the war on terrorism); backers of strong defense in general, as a location which has been attacked before; and your Governor, proof that the Hawaii GOP is alive and kicking.
A Bush upset win in Hawaii would be great fun. I'm not as surprised as some seem to be by the polls showing the race tight. If the race is going well on the mainland, perhaps enough Hawaiian Bush supporters will make a late decision to go vote to tip the state.
Hey Moe!
I voted for free lunch!
whew whew whew
MV
No, my projected popular vote total is just over 120 million, not 140 million.
It shows the importance of this election to americans.
Yep, sorry. My calculator is saying its time to log
off and watch "Cheers".
Does anybody think that Sam Malone looks like
Skerry? Or is it just me.
MV
ping
Lovely. Perhaps irrelevant, but a lovely way to end the night, nonetheless.
Because the polls suck. Ignore them. My prediction of a Dubya win is based on three things:
1. Where the candidates are--2/3 of the stops for BOTH are in blue states. That means Dubya's on offense big time.
2. The nature of candidate rallies--Dubya is filling stadiums in minority heavy Dem strongholds (Detroit and Cincy) and is specifically asking Dems for their votes when he makes blue state appearances. Kerry's appearances are also in Dem strongholds (Philly, Madison, WI), he never strays from the big cities even in the blue states, and to get a big crowd he has to bring along a rock star (Springsteen, Clinton) and/or bus people in. Half the folks at the Philly rally were city workers.
3. The Ohio and Florida GOP-GOTV efforts are fantastic and undecides always either split down the middle or swing overwhelmingly toward the incumbent in presidential races.
Now, add in the polls (which look good for Bush overall) and the Bin Laden tape (sure to help Bush) and we're looking pretty darn good.
Back, back, back, back, back, back!
He could go all the way!
MV
10-4. Do what you can, and keep your priorities (i.e., this one should be pretty low on the list). Sleep tight, soldier.
I can't find the orginal post.
For what its worth, the NE Pats 21-game win
streak was napped by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The weekend reeked of upsets w/ Miami and
FLA State going down to sucky UNC and MD,
respectively.
MV
I like your numbers. i'll want to look at this on wed.
My brain thinks Bush will do even better than this.
Thanks for the work and posting.
This seems logical and possible. Too gad you can't factor in last minute media distortion.
By using a 4% higher democrat sample!!
Search CAMEC on FR for older projections from earlier this year and for more information.From a search of Free Republic for "CAMEC":CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well.
***FINAL***
CAMEC - COMPUTER ANALYSIS MODEL OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE
***FINAL*** 10/31
Posted by Josh in PA
On News/Activism 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST · 156 replies · 6,163+ views
10-31-04 | Josh in PA
CAMEC 9-19-04
Posted by Josh in PA
On News/Activism 09/19/2004 7:45:52 AM PDT · 4 replies · 278+ views
9-19-04 | Josh in PA
Post-GOP Convention, CAMEC
(Computer Analysis Model of Electoral College)
Posted by Josh in PA
On News/Activism 09/11/2004 4:13:30 AM PDT · 32 replies · 1,191+ views
9/11/04 | Josh in PA
Thanks!
My 93 year old mother is in poor health and has been housebound for the past few years. She was registered as a Democrat the last time she voted, but she has moved here from FL since then. After Kerry was nominated she had me register her by mail as a Republican, and I also requested a mail-in ballot for her.
Last week she cast her first vote since 1984, and it was a straight Republican ballot. I guess that after 44 years of me trying to convince her that the Democrat party is no longer the party of Truman and FDR my legendary powers of persuasion finally won her over.
Or maybe it was because she thinks Kerry is a dorky looking Frenchman, and I haven't quite gotten around to telling her the truth yet. The truth about Kerry not being French I mean, she's right about him looking like a dork. Especially when he wears camo hunting garb and totes a shotgun, a gun which I'm sure he hates and would love to wrap around the nearest tree if no photographer was around.
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