All of these pollsters can take their polls and shove them where the air is rare.
Posted on 10/30/2004 3:45:49 PM PDT by okstate
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush nationally and had the edge in six key battleground states in a tight White House race, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Saturday.
Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.
The bitter rivals face a frantic sprint to the finish, hunting for votes in about 10 swing states that hold the key to a win on Tuesday. Neither candidate has been able to establish a clear advantage or break the 50 percent barrier since the tracking poll began on Oct. 7.
"Bush continues to hold on to solid support among Republicans, investors, married voters and born-again Christians," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry expands his lead among young voters, African Americans and Hispanics."
Kerry reclaimed small leads in Michigan and Iowa, and also led Bush in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Bush had the edge in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and expanded his lead in the showdown state of Ohio from one to five points.
Most of the leads in the 10 state polls were within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The biggest lead in any state was Bush's nine-point advantage in New Mexico.
Kerry is still getting the support of only 84 percent of black voters, short of the more than 90 percent claimed by Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and enough of a shortfall to make a difference in a few critical states in such a tight election.
The Massachusetts senator had a 48-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by four points in the daily tracking poll.
The national poll of 1,209 likely voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.8 percent.
The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Wednesday through Saturday.
The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 50-45 percent; Florida, Kerry 49-47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 47-46 percent; Michigan, Kerry 48-47 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-46 percent; New Mexico, Bush 52-43 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-46 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 52-44 percent.
Zogby did not have it any more accurate in 2000 on the final weekend. The only reason his "final" poll released was any more accurate is because he released figures he polled AFTER everyone else had completed their final release. Thus, he was the only one of the pollsters to completely and accurately include the DUI story effects. Any of the others would have been more accurate, too, had they made a similar adjustment of a couple percent to their figures, but they chose not to release what appeared to them incomplete figures. Zogby consequently had somewhat more recent numbers than anybody else, and those numbers mattered in 2000 due to the DUI change.
Only thing: ARG is biased +5 to Kerry, so the real results are Bush +5.
These polls are meant to energize the Democrat's base and demoralize the Republicans. Polls should be banned two weeks prior to any presidential election except for internal polls which shouldn't be made public.
All of these pollsters can take their polls and shove them where the air is rare.
As long as they're leaked to Drudge or National Review.
I would like Zogby to explain how there was an 11 point swing in Colorado in less than a week.
Zogby is the only pollster that includes democrat fraud as part of the equation (the special sauce :).
Posted elsewhere as its won thread, but relevant here:
BREATHE DEEP: 2000 POLLS WERE RIGHT ON BUSH, JUST WRONG ON NADER
It's good that Republican supporters stay a little nervous before election day, so that we are motivated to do what we can to help our guys win. But I'm sensing a level of anxiety among some Republicans that is counter-productive, so I'm sharing this with y'all:
Bush is ahead in the polls. This is good news. But many Republicans are fearful that he was also ahead in the polls in 2000, and lost the popular vote. Actually, take comfort: The polls in 2000 were VERY accurate about Bush's level of support. What they could not measure, although some suspected, was that Nader's liberals supporters would abandon ship at the last moment for Gore.
Take Gallup for instance. Their final poll was actually amzingly accurate measuring George Bush. They came within 1/10th of 1 percent. But Gallup figured Nader would garner about 4%. That's the norm for all pollsters: Nader would get 4%. Some had 3% (NBC, ABC); others had as high as 5%. Nader wound up with only 1.4 percent, losing 2.6%, or 2/3rds of his total, to Gore.
Zogby has gained a lot of accolade for correctly calling that Gore would win or tie against Bush in 2000, but he actually was about the worst at measuring Nader and Bush. Whereas the end result had Nader plus Gore beating Bush by less than 2% -- a result which Gallup nailed -- Zogby had Nader plus Gore beating Bush by SEVEN percent, way outside the margin or error. (Only Rasmussen, which had Bush beating Gore plus Nader by 5, was as bad.)
In the end, according to a Gallup post-election survey (which, admittedly, raises credibility issues on the part of the respondents) nearly half of the Nader voters were conservative (or Bush-leading.)
In this years' polls, Naders totals have been around one percent. In many polls, Bush does BETTER when Nader isn't an option. So there seems to be little danger of a massive defection of Nader voters for Gore at the very end.
So before anyone panics, keep this in mind: In 2000, Gallup correctly predicted that Gore and Nader would receive 50% of the vote to Bush's 48%. In 2004, Gallup (so far) has Bush leading by 5 percent. That amount may shrink with the release of today's poll, but I would very definitely be surprised if the lead disappeared.
Also, please note: There is a false notion that an "October Surprise" relevation that Bush had been arrested for DUI kept many moralizing conservatives home. There is fear of another attempted October Surprise. The truth is that although some conservatives apparently sat out 2000, this was apparently over earlier accusations of drinking and drugging. Tracking polls did not show a last-minute collaps in Bush support, except for Zogby. Voters don't make up their mind based on journalistic hit-pieces revealed the weekend before an election.
I think the data's wrong, I think bush will get wisconsin, minnesota, iowa, florida. I'm not sure about ohio I'll have to see tomorrow's and monday's polls.
zogby's a joke....i get his email poll and every time i just pick a swing state and become an ultra-liberal union, veteran, female minority that is voting for bush
The Cocoon is still fully in effect. Expect most of the current polls to be as accurate as they were in 2002(8-11pts to low). 54% Bush
Please! You JUST DON'T GET IT!!!!!
Kerry is up by 10 billion percent. Every state, except TX will vote overwhelmingly for Kerry. France will immediately do what a new President Kerry wants done. All will be right with the liberal world.
Or, one could wise up. Even if the polls seem to go your way, that doesn't change this fact:
What matters is who votes, where they vote, and for who they vote.
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