----Bush-Kerry race tightens in state Bush 48% - Kerry 45%----
"Tightens"? Tightens? Bush is up three points from an almost perfect tie and the race is "tightening"?
-Dan
Posted on 10/30/2004 6:20:28 AM PDT by crushelits
Ohio voters are nearly split over their choice for president, according to a new Plain Dealer poll that shows President Bush's lead over John Kerry has shrunk to 3 percentage points, making the race statistically too close to call.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over his Democratic challenger, 48 percent to 45 percent, down from a Plain Dealer poll of the same size conducted in mid-September, when the president held an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. Five percent of voters in the new poll say they are undecided, down from 6 percent in September.
The new poll, taken after Kerry's strong performances in the three presidential debates, suggests that voters have begun to embrace the Massachusetts Democrat as a presidential candidate.
Though a majority of Democratic voters surveyed 56 percent still cite their dislike of Bush as their top reason for backing Kerry, Democratic voters gave Kerry improved marks for his character and integrity.
Among those who say they are planning to vote for Bush, 50 percent cite his character and integrity as the top reason, followed by his leadership in the war on terror. The president's marks in both categories, however, are slightly lower than those in the previous poll.
The survey of 1,500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 26-28 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, meaning that either candidate's support could be 2.6 percentage points higher or lower.
Two percent of those interviewed for the new poll favor neither Bush nor Kerry and responded "other," though no specific alternatives were offered. Ralph Nader, who attracted 2 percent in the last Plain Dealer poll, was not in cluded in the new poll because he has been dropped from the ballot for failing to properly collect petitions.
The Bush and Kerry campaigns responded cautiously to the poll numbers Friday, though both claimed that the numbers favor them and that their voter mobilization efforts will bring them a victory.
"This shows what we know that this race is tied and very close in Ohio," said Brendon Cull, a spokesman for the Ohio Democratic coordinated campaign. "What is going to be most important this year is the ground game, and our 170,000 volunteers are working hard talking to undecided voters and reminding people to vote on Election Day."
Cull attributed the improved numbers to Kerry's performance in the debates and to Kerry and John Edwards' frequent visits to Ohio in the first three weeks of October. Bush, on the other hand, did not campaign in the state for nearly three weeks in October.
"We certainly have the momentum in what was always expected to be a close race," Bush campaign spokesman Kevin Madden said.
Referring to Bush's three consecutive days of campaigning in the state this week, Madden said, "President Bush has used these last few hours of the campaign to make a very strong, very direct appeal to all Ohio voters. Couple that with our extensive grassroots organization that has every inch of the state covered, and it's fair to say we would much rather be in our position than theirs."
When compared with the September Plain Dealer poll, the new survey shows that Kerry has made more headway in pumping up his base and reaching into Bush's strongholds than Bush has in building on his base and swinging voters his way.
Kerry expanded his lead in Northeast Ohio, a Democratic stronghold, while cutting into Bush's lead in Republican stronghold southwest Ohio, where Bush's margin narrowed from 27 percentage points to 18.
Kerry gained ground in central Ohio and dramatically narrowed Bush's lead in socially conservative southeast Ohio, from 21 percentage points to just 4 percentage points, when compared with the September poll.
Cull said that's a reflection of Kerry and Edwards' recent campaigning in the southern and southeastern sections of the state, traditionally Republican country.
Bush improved on his lead over Kerry only in northwest Ohio, which includes Toledo and the state's farm belt. There, Bush improved his lead from 5 per centage points to 16 percentage points.
Some national polls conducted this week show voters slightly favor Bush, while others show voters prefer Kerry. The polls, however, show that neither candidate holds a lead much beyond the margin of error. And all of the polls suggest that Kerry has closed in on Bush when compared with polls taken last month.
Ohio voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percentage points. With 20 electoral votes up for grabs and most polls showing the race locked in the state, Ohio has remained the top priority of both campaigns. And in the last three days before the election, neither campaign will concede defeat.
Seeing other polls have the Pres. down in Ohio, I'll take it. BIG TIME
Bush will win OH.
"Tightens"? Tightens? Bush is up three points from an almost perfect tie and the race is "tightening"?
-Dan
And this does not count the "OBL Factor"
He means tightened compared to a month ago when they took their last poll. Of course, if they had looked at last week, the headline would read, "widened," as Bush has increased his lead. Fact is, it's a bigger gap than three. Try five.
The only real poll that counts is Tuesday. The evil one's(who ever it was) tape yesterday changes everything.
Ohio polls numbers are off this year and for one good reason -- the Amish, Mennonites, and Dunkard Brethren have registered to vote so they can vote for President Bush. The Amish and Dunkard Brethren do not have phones -- cannot speak for the Mennonites, but I grew up around the Dunkard Brethren in the Southwestern part of the State -- they were my neighbors and I was good friends with their children. Their votes in this election are not being factored in by pollsters.
Ohio will go Bush when a Cleveland Plain Dealer poll has him up by 3 points. The key is getting out the vote in the other 3/4's of the State which they are doing. Ohio has the BEST ground team in the Country for Bush-Cheney and a lot of those super heroes are Freepers!
This former Buckeye (now Sooner) would take it to the bank that come election day, President Bush will win Ohio. My Mom still lives in Ohio and Ohio will be BUSH COUNTRY on 2 November!
He hit one out of the park with his Columbus rally yesterday. The remark about one of the best reasons to give him four more years because it would make Laura first lady again was pretty funny too. I imagine terasuh was seething.
I thought Fox also had a poll showing Bush by three in Ohio. Has it not been officially released yet?
Can sKerry win without Ohio?
This is the poll Mort was talking about last night.
I noticed this too. One of two things has happened. Either the 3+ lead by Fox was part of the internals of its own +5 national poll (my guess), and that they didn't intend to release all the state #s, but to tease; or it was a leak of the MD poll that Fox wasn't supposed to release.
TIGHTENS????
I thought the last Mason-Dixon poll had Bush only ahead by 1.
(But I sure hope and PRAY that Karl Rove knows what he's doing here!!!)
Who knows about any poll right now? Any or all of them could be all wet. If this one shows undecideds breaking to kerry, then that's trouble. On the other hand, this was before Friday's performance by OBL which may be a big deal and may not be.
One thing is for sure. It pretty much comes down to Ohio. I've fooled with the EV calculator til I'm red/blue in the face, and it shows this: Assuming Bush takes FL (an absolute MUST), then with OH Bush is pretty much a shoo-in and without OH, Bush is likely to be toast.(Although there are a couple of long shot scenarios for Bush to still win.)
It should never have gotten to this point, but here we are. If the people want to take the advice of OBL and the NYT on who the President ought to be, then I guess they will deserve it. Of course, my grandkids won't deserve it, but that's what happens when you live in a country of 50.00001% wussies, dopes, dumbasses, and socialists.--if it turns out that way.
And then we're gonna party like it's 1699.
-Dan
I expect Kerry to be slightly up in most polls by Monday. Pollsters are now adding in the fraud factor.
Drunkards are for Bush? Now, I don't necessarily......oh, you said "Dunkard"....never mind.
Winning without Ohio isn't a long shot at all. If Bush takes Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico, all states in which he's been leading for some time now, it'll more than make up for Ohio's 20 electoral votes. If he takes Minnesota, where his odds are at least 50/50, all the better.
-Dan
Bush is gonna get taken to the cleaners in PA,AGAIN. They need to recognize that PA has become NY lite. I do believe in the end Bush will prevail in Ohio with the general uptick and him being an incumbent.
Look for W pick up's in Wisconsin and New Mexico as well as a bigger victory by 100,000+ more votes in Florida.
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