Posted on 10/29/2004 3:17:38 PM PDT by kyperman
Check out the accuracy of Gallup polls since 1936, they have been close most years and even a little low. That means to me that Bush wins. Gallup has bush up 51 to 46. That tells me that Bush wins by 53 to 45.
2000 Bush 48.0 47.9 +0.1 Gore 46.0 48.4 -2.4 Nader 4.0 2.7 +1.3
1996 Clinton 52.0 49.2 +2.8 Dole 41.0 40.7 -0.3
Perot 7.0 8.4 -1.4
1992 Clinton 49.0 43.3 +5.7 Bush 37.0 37.7 -0.7 Perot 14.0 19.0 -5.0
1988 Bush 56.0 53.9 +2.1 Dukakis 44.0 46.1 -2.1
1984 Reagan 59.0 59.2 -0.2 Mondale 41.0 40.8 +0.2
1980 Reagan 47.0 50.8 -3.8 Carter 44.0 41.0 +3.0 Anderson 8.0 6.6 +1.4 Other 1.0 1.6 -0.6
1976 Carter 48.0 50.1 -2.1 Ford 49.0 48.1 +0.9 McCarthy 2.0 0.9 +1.1 Other 1.0 0.9 +0.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
I agree 100%!! I already voted absentee, but I'll be doing my part by driving my Wife and Mom to the polls and making sure theres 2 more votes besides mine for GWB!! My wifes parents are liberals and even she can't understand why. I've known my wife for 25 years and we've been married for 16 years. She's been a conservative for as long as we've been together, but then she barely tolerates her parents anyway. If they come to my house to visit I make sure I have my Bush/Cheney sign up and I make sure to compliment our President at least 3 or 4 times while they're here. They never say a word about it because I put down the law to them years ago that in my house, I'm king and their opinions they can just keep to themselves. And then I avoid going to their house like the plague. :) It's dysfuntional, but it works great for me! HAHAHAHA
I think we can be optimistic. Often the momentum on Friday leading into the final weeking is quite telling. Two years ago we were hearing that Republicans were pulling ahead, and they made gains in Congress. In 2000 it was obvious Gore was gaining speed after the DUI dirty trick. And 4 years ago at this time I remember the consensus being that the momentum had shifted, and Republicans would not make the big gains in Congress they expected. So with GWB up in every poll, I think unless the Dems pull some other dirty cr*p, we should be OK.
I think that happened in L.A. after Rodney King. Rob liquor stores, consume the beverage, and bravely go forth in that inspired mood.
You're right. I think each candidate will get a little less than that, I'm predicting Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.1, others 1.8.
Right. The one from Oct 28, 2000 had Bush up 52 to 39.
I agree, though we now have a huge late wild card thrown in, now that it appears as though Osama is alive (something I was wrong about) and has decided to emerge to taunt America once again. It will be very interesting to see what kind of impact this has over the next couple of days.
I'm guessing that there will be a record Republican turnout nationwide. Our President and our conservative values have constantly been trashed by the libs and their lackeys in the MSM for the past four years and beyond, and I'm tired of listening to their crap. Even though I live in California, which will probably go to Kerry, I'm pumped up to vote for the President. Keep confident out there. It's their side that is panicking and resorting to intimidation and vote tampering to win this election. Their man is going down in flames and they know it!
Praying for a Bush victory with a bigger margin than Clinton had over Dole. That would put a real knot in Kerrys knickers.
If you look at 2000 most polls got Bush right on the money. It was Gore they missed. Hopefuly this time they're more correct as Kerry rarely touched 49%
I agree with you...
for later.
Good point: Gore took many votes that were expected to go for Nader. Apparently, voters at the last moment changed their mind about voting for Nader and went for Gore when the last-minute polls showed it just about tied.
I HOPE EVERYONE IS GOING TO JOIN THEIR LOCAL 72HOUR GET OUT THE VOTE IN THEIR AREA
That's right. The big poll will be on Tuesday. Let's make sure Dubya comes out ahead.
So if you apply the 2000 numbers to 2004 (Bush for Bush, Kerry for Gore), the result is Bush 50.9, Kerry 48.4.
You're right. I think each candidate will get a little less than that, I'm predicting Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.1, others 1.8.
Reagan's 1980 landslide is in there. I think it was 50.8 in 1980. I hate to bust any bubbles but with the pure unadultrated hate on the Dims side, it is not going to be a landslide. I will be happy with a clean WIN by 3am 11-3-04.
I think a landslide would be a huge electoral college win.
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