Posted on 10/29/2004 3:17:38 PM PDT by kyperman
What do you mean? Florida isnt even mentioned on the page I posted.
Thanks, I was wishing someone would do that.
Dan
Sorry, my bad. I've got too many browsers up on my computer at the same time.
People, please...at the risk of being flamed, POLLS MEAN NOTHING RIGHT NOW! Polls at this point are like looking at the point spread for a football game after the kickoff. It's time to call the plays and forget the predictions. Get everyone to the polls. I guarantee that high voter turnout favors President Bush.
I'm watching FOX and the are predicting liberal legal looting. I read the 269/269 story, a bleeding liberal simply whining in the Times.
How does Gallup account for the Kerry-Cheat factor.
I wonder if Detroit will burn again. If Bush wins NJ, I wonder if Newark will burn again. Or are those people a bit long in the tooth to throw a whiskey bottle full of gasoline and a rag stuffed in it?
Not to worry--I'm sure their progeny will be able to pick up the slack for them.
So is your premise that Bush beat Gore 48% TO 46% in 2000? I'm not familiar with these results. Please post a source.
Remember that winning the popular vote is fine, but is does not need to be by a wide margin. In President Reagan's stunning Electoral Landslide in his first election he only garnered 51% of the popular vote.
If we coast, were toast......
GET OUT THE VOTE..................
The first number in each case is Gallup's prediction, the second number is the actual results, followed by how much Gallup was off.
If we coast, were toast......
GET OUT THE VOTE..................
Bushies, Let's ROLL!
Don't lump all of the East side for Kerry. ;) Just make it the Metro Detroit Area. There are alot of Bush supporters in the rural areas--Lenawee county, Monroe County, Livingston is pure Republican.
If we could just have a blizzard drop over Detroit next Tuesday...
"Polls mean nothing right now!"
If we coast, were toast......
GET OUT THE VOTE..................
Bushies, Let's ROLL!
the msu side (western) usually goes conservative and the u-of-m side (eastern) usually goes liberal.
Polls mean nothing right now!"
If we coast, were toast......
GET OUT THE VOTE..................
Bushies, Let's ROLL!
2000 Bush 48.0 47.9 +0.1 Gore 46.0 48.4 -2.4 Nader 4.0 2.7 +1.3
Gallup has Bush up 51 to 46. That tells me that Bush wins by 53 to 45.
So if you apply the 2000 numbers to 2004 (Bush for Bush, Kerry for Gore), the result is Bush 50.9, Kerry 48.4.
"If we coast, were toast......"
Four more years, no more tears.........
In case any missed this from the Kerry Spot at NRO:
" THE WORD FROM A HIGHLY-PLACED SOURCE [10/29 01:24 PM]
I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.
Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...
So here’s the news for today.
Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.
There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?
In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.
In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.
In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.
In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.
Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later."
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