Skip to comments.Late Deciding Voters Prefer Bush (71% Decided Before Fall Campaign)
Posted on 10/26/2004 11:15:34 AM PDT by RWR8189
October 26, 2004--Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 12% decided about a month ago, 9% a week ago, and 5% in the past few days.
Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.
Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.
Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.
There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.
At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not vote).
That's the report I wanted to hear. Late deciders include the "undecided".
Like I've been sayin': Bush, 320 EVs. It won't be all that close.
The beat goes on....
(I wish Sonny was still here!)
Good find. Thanks!
I thought he said that USUALLY the late voters go for the challenger, but this election may be different. I may have heard wrong, but that's the way I thought he put it.
Zogby said it looks like we will rewrite history with this election.
But they like talking in circles, so I may have missed what you heard. They are good at "CYA".
What post #8 said is more accurate. It was in reference to late deciders.
They could go for the incumbend (which is indeed what they do) or they could just stay home, and I got the sense he thought they would do the latter.
Check this post. Rasmussen says the following about undecided voters:
"However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin."
That's pretty darn close to the 2 to 1 break you predicted based on past elections.
OH SH*T!!! Don't tell the DUmmies this!
The undecided voters are supposed to break for the challenger 2 to 1 according to them!
No suprise here. Once again history repeats itself.
If what Zogby is saying is true, then why does his own poll show a late movement to Bush?
To me, he's covering his butt. But hey, I COULD be wrong.
President's numbers not good for incumbent.
Rasmussen poll over the weekend was top heavy for Kerry....it will begin to get better for Bush as the week moves on. Zogby was implying in one of his last reports that maybe they are breaking for Bush. When you are alone in one of those booths and you aren't really for Kerry and don't hate Bush then you will probably vote for Bush. Gallops last was very good for Bush as was his Florida poll...Mason Dixon had it for Bush by 3 which is a very good polling firm...I think Bush will win here in Fl. by 4 because Kerry doesn't seem to get over 48%....The Tipp poll can not be ignored as it did a good job in 2000 and according to it Bush is way ahead...
"Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment."
Translation: Almost all of them broke for Bush, but we are not going to report that due to statistical error. We would only report something like that if potential voters were breaking hard for Kerry.
I was channel surfing this morning only to hear Timmy Russert telling Katie that of all those who just registered to vote 50% favored Kerry to 19% who said they would vote for Bush. He went on to say that this was not good news for the President.
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