Posted on 10/17/2004 2:05:36 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Bush 50%, Kerry 46% (Kerry -1% from yesterday)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Just out of curiosity:
WHERE ARE THE "BATTLEGROUND POLLS"?
As I recall, Battleground used to be all the rage. I can't remember the last time I saw one?
Last one 10/11-10-14 Bush +3
Here's the most recent that I've seen:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1240977/posts
Yes, agree. I don't see Bush getting under 50% of the popular vote. It'll be good for him that he has a mandate, and a strong one, too. About the Haters and "activists": let them do what they like. There will always be people like that. I'd rather have a strong President with opposition (both home & abroad), then one who plays "friends" with everyone.
It would, however, be a blowout if Bush got over 53%. It would be in the 340+ E.V. range.
See the CNN story on the Newsweek poll? The headline and the lead-in paragraph had the story about how close it was with Registered Voters.
Buried down at the end of the column was the fact that Bush was ahead 51-45 with Likely Voters. "Likely Voters" is the category that most experts are looking at for real predictive value during the September-October timeframe.
Blatant bias; it's disgusting.
See post 75, if that's right we may be o.k.
And this from Oregon: President Bush has opened a five-point lead on Democratic rival John Kerry in Oregon in the closing weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll of likely statewide voters conducted by a prominent Portland pollster.
http://www.kgw.com/news-local/stories/kgw_101704_news_riley_poll.a2a337c.html
I'm long GWB at an average of 63. Today's 3:00 p.m. quote, hot off the press is 54.4; up slightly from yesterday.
Florida is the one that really matters. I do a TS weighted average EV count for each state every day. The following, which is the Florida weighted average EV vote, is why I'm not worrying.
10/04 - 16.50
10/05 - 17.28
10/06 - 16.74
10/07 - 16.74
10/08 - 16.79
10/09 - 16.61
10/10 - 16.36
10/11 - 16.77
10/12 - 17.82
10/13 - 17.12
10/14 - 17.01
10/15 - 16.82
10/16 - 17.09
10/17 - 17.01
Florida is trading at 63 and strengthening, likewise Ohio, trading at 60. IA, of which I was nearly dispairing, has recovered well over the past two days, too. Looks like 291 EVs for GW to me.
If Kerry loses OR, he's done. He can't afford to lose any blue states. WI and IA are already in a dead heat (even though Rasmussen has Kerry with a slight edge).
Question: Have any of you ever been called by one of these pollsters?
I have never ever ever been called, nor do I know of anyone that has been called.
I think that is an important question. Who is it they call? I wish there was a way to see a list of names and their voting records....
That's a dam good question, I don't know anyone
who has ever been called either.
Zogby has Kerry "closing in" on Bush in today's poll
Released: October 17, 2004
Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Kerry Closes In On Bush Lead; President Loses 2 Points (Bush 46%- Kerry 44%); Race Remains Close, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals
It's plus or minus 3%.
Bush's range 53% to 47%, Kerry's range from 49% to 43%.
Could be a ten point lead for Bush or a two point lead for Kerry.
...And with Caller ID, people screen their calls. I don't answer any calls that I don't recognize. So, is it people without Caller ID, possibly seniors or lower income?? Who knows...
There's a lot of signs in even that corrupted MSM poll that are good for Bush.
Repubs are more enthusiastic for this election them dems, spelling into more likely voters for Bush (77% to 65%). Bush flipped the tables on Kerry concerning education, and again holds a strong lead in the natl security area.
The 52-44 LV spread makes it look like we're back in post-RNC, pre-debate territory.
I am truly baffled since Bush has always been way ahead of Kerry. However, the latest projection (Oct. 17) shows Kerry securing 318 EVs on election day and Bush just 220.
What is most suspicious is that the home page used to have a direct link to the Nov. 2 EV projection, which is updated daily. About a week ago I noticed the link disappeared. In order to see the new projections, I simply change the date to today's date in the URL, and the latest graph appears.
Has anyone else been following electoral-vote.com, as I have, and are just as perplexed?
If anything, the Bush numbers should be increasingly more favorable, not heading south.
Here's a quick comparison:
THIS SUNDAY (TODAY):
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 (as of Oct. 17, this Sunday): Kerry 318 Bush 220
LAST SUNDAY:
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 (as of Oct. 10, last Sunday) Kerry 203 Bush 316
Bush lost 100 EVs in their estimation, in just one week? That seems impossible.
The text below the Oct. 17 map reads, in part:
"The data are very noisy, so this map should not be taken too seriously." Then why have it?!
Any explanation, especially in light of very favorable numbers for Bush being released lately? I have no idea what's going on.
This is a liberal site that has been hacked with pro-Kerry results at least once to my knowledge. Pay no attention to electoral-vote.com.
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