Posted on 10/17/2004 9:06:04 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
Edited on 10/17/2004 9:35:17 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
FROM DRUDGE:
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President
Likely Registered
Voters Voters
Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon
Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004
Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?
For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.
Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President
Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings
Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush
Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views
Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views
Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40
end
I want Bush to win FL, WI and OH.
And I want the Dems to be on suicide watch starting Nov. 3rd.
If you were a Dem, you would qualify to vote again upon your demise.
Yup. And I bet that his Mary Cheney comment will spread like wildfire in the religious circles and make the evangelicals really, really, really mad. I know it made Mom mad, she was so insulted that he thought he'd stop her from voting for Bush if she knew Cheney had a gay daughter!! Remember 4 million didn't vote in 2000...
Compensating for the DemoRAT voting fraud, and your margin goes down by about 2%.
Bush 52%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%
This does it..I am into a deep depression with this gain for Bush..It is obviously meant to lull us into complacency....;)
NO COMPLACENCY!
He'll bring whirled peas? Really?
No Link, humor, imbrace the concept...;>)
Me.....Oct 3rd.....Battleground Poll.
We're over here now.......post anything you find here!
I live in NM and was polled by Gallup the week of Sept 11.
Very true; may be clique, but polls don't vote, people do.
Every day is an emergency until Nov. 3rd
"If Bush wins FL and WI; Ohio and PA are meaningless."
Actually if each candidate wins the same states as last year, except that Bush wins WI and Kerry wins OH, Bush would lose the election 270-268. So IMO Ohio is still the key.
First - Wolf followed this announcement saying that the race was incredibly close, go figure.... Wonder how many points Bush has to be ahead before the MSM acknowledges it...
Second - I don't really believe that Bush has an 8 point lead at the moment. Maybe 2 to 4 point, but 8 is probably not likely. However, I'll take the results because it will drive perception. Perception affects turnout and MSM coverage.
Still got to wonder if we are not being setup for another Kerry Comeback...
I was wondering because I know no one who has been polled that are registered
I'd like to see a bigger lead among registered voters.
Pray for W and Our Troops
I'm locked and loaded.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.