Gallup Poll: Bush 52%, Kerry 44%

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

"I was wondering if the questions were loaded or leading."

I did not feel as though they were loaded questions, but one of the polls I took asked me a question about 2 animals (a pig and horse if I remember correctly). It asked which one I viewed more favorably. How this relates to an election is beyond me.

Every candidate/party is included in the poll... Const., Lib., Green, Ind., Dem., Rep..

If it looks hopeless to them, they're going to start getting violent...the enviro-wackos and the union thugs will come out breaking glass and rioting. They're going to get really really crazy.

We won't need any jihadists, our home-grown leftist terrorists will try to "Spain" us. And in some ways, they are more frightening, knowing the country as well as they do.

Sorry but can't find a source for this. anyone got a link?

I don't know. They supply no link.

Where would we be able to get the internals to verify?

How did it go? Did you have folks' interest, or did they slam doors on you? Please, Sir/Ma'am, a play-by-play report!

what a bunch of lovers those folks are.

Did I say lovers? 'cause I meant losers!

My sister just returned from England. She reports that all newspapers she read and the BBC have Kerry as sure winner.

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

"My guess (perhaps I could say my hope) is that they'll break for Bush, giving him a sizeable electoral college victory."

No expert here, but my understanding is that's exactly what happens in the end. Whereas, in Senate and House races, late deciders tend to go with the challenger.

R/D/I ratios don't apply to Gallup because they don't ask what party you register with, they ask what party do you identify with the best or something like that.

Let's not get complacent. Polls can swing back just as fast. Also, the results can easily be manipulated depending on the pollster.

I see one of the Kerry bums on DU posted that this poll has 9% more Republicans than Democrats, I assume they can't know this is true yet, correct? Anyone know the breakdown? I hope they are just making it up. Good news on this poll, I hope we're up 8 in all the polls the day of the election, and win by 8 I'll definitely take that!

The Dems may start concentrating on the Congress now. Tim Russert is really going after our guys.

That pathetic loser Kerry is going down.

Thanks.

The pig or a horse question is weird

Not to be cold water, but CAUTION and reason are advised before hasty celebration.

As dvwjr revealed Here Newsweek oversampled Republicans again.

Advise viewing the sampling and std. dev. error statements before placing much faith in this poll.

Sorry to be a bummer - I am confident (and have been for 2 months) W will win by 5-7%, but I smell the set-up before the attempted "October Surprise".

Potential hit is Troops Mutiny

I want Gallup to call me, so I can tell them they need to start exit polling the early voters. I cast my vote for Bush/Cheney yesterday. :o)

Me too. My wife and I voted for Bush yesterday...but we're in Washington, and to get Washington Bush will need to have 45 state blowout brewing. We'll get within five, but this is a really loony state.

DUmmies are reporting this Gallup poll oversampled Republicans by 9%.

Gallup just asks what party you associate with more not how you are registered. this could be a reflection of registered democrats that are voting for Bush because of 9/11.