Gallup Poll: Bush 52%, Kerry 44%

CNN, Late Edition

[JohnHuang2]

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

190 posted on 10/17/2004 12:31:46 PM EDT by Petronski (I'm not always cranky.)

[Petronski]

FROM DRUDGE:

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

[Nataku X]

Don't forget all the MSM hit pieces. I think it was NBC or ABC that did a piece on how Republicans want to keep blacks from voting last week. And they complain about one tiny documentary shown on one tiny network??

[Mo1]

I said it before and I'll say it again

People aren't going to vote for a man they don't trust ... AND THEY DON'T TRUST KERRY

[veronica]

I was polled by Rasmussen in 2000.

[zarf]

Actually if each candidate wins the same states as last year, except that Bush wins WI and Kerry wins OH, Bush would lose the election 270-268. So IMO Ohio is still the key.

FL WI give Bush give Bush so many options to win, I can't see Kerry pulling it off. WIth FL and WI all Bush needs is NM to guarantee a 269 tie and a win. Kerry would have to pull out all the other battleground states....doubtful

[whershey]

Yep. Bush has multiple ways of winning this election, Kerry's options are slowly dwindling.

[Timeout]

I walked a local neighborhood yesterday. We were registering voters, offering absentee ballots if needed, and arranging rides to the polls.

BUT, here's the best part.

I'm in a strong Bush state, but only an hour's drive from FLORIDA. I've been trying to get in touch with the GOP in FLA to volunteer. I happened to mention it in passing yesterday and another volunteer told me she knows someone who is desperately trying to sign up volunteers to help in Florida! She was going to call him last night and give him my number!!!

I was in Florida "demonstrating" in 2000 and I can't wait to go back! Yeaaaaahhhhh!

[mylife]

4 times? Oh ya Ohio! L0L

[Petronski]

DUmmies reporting this Gallup poll included 9% more Republicans than Democrats.

[miltonim]

lol

[Sea2ShiningSea]

Thanks for making my day! Ok, Ok, I know the polls are going to give us all ulcers before election day, but this still puts a smile on my face.
And lets work like were down by 10! I know I AM!

[denydenydeny]

Here's the entirety of an actual vanity post from DU, found at random:

Anyone to the right of McCain or Lugar should be considered ... treasonous, dangerous, a threat to our freedom, probably a radical religious fundamentalist, and generally not someone to turn your back on. And if they make any sudden moves, make it so they won't move again.

[dc-zoo]

This must be evidence of the "uptick" from an internal poll a reporter on Chris Matthews show mentioned friday.

[firewalk]

...the Kerry Campaign is IMPLODING!!!

yes it is...

[mylife]

DUmmies reporting this Gallup poll included 9% more Republicans than Democrats.

And they know this how?

[sirchtruth]

Hmmm. Tons of post this morning on the "WORLD" polls favoring Kerry, and now posts showing an upward push of Bush in a majority of polls...(Is that lyrical or sloganistic?)

I wonder if the MSM thinks a tidal wave is coming?

[rang1995]

these polls can make you crazy but a trend is definitly there--bush opening it up after the 3rd and last debate--only things outside his control can change it now--market,terror,etc

[CanadianYankee]

The wife and I just sent in our absentee votes from Canada back home to the Buckeye state. So as far as we're concerned W is up 2 to zip vs. sKerry. But we need MORE. So all you Ohio FReepers and other true-blue Americans get in this fight.

[Mo1]

If Kerry's internal polling shows anything close to these numbers, you can bet your house that it's going to get REALLY nasty these last two weeks

I'm betting they are a lot worse ... and that is why Kerry is out saying Bush is going to start up the draft and is at fault for the flu vaccine

[kesg]

If the story is true, it would seem that the historical pattern is holding once again, to the effect that a debate bump, if any, usually lasts only about a week or so, after which the race reverts to where it was prior to the debates.

[Petronski]

DUmmies are reporting this Gallup poll oversampled Republicans by 9%.