John Gizzi: Republicans Likely to Pick Up {Three} Senate Seats

Human Events Online ^ | 10-15-04 | Gizzi, John

[Theodore R.]

-- Republicans Likely to Pick Up Senate Seats by John Gizzi Posted Oct 15, 2004

With two weeks to go before voters go to the polls in 34 states to choose U.S. senators, prospects are good the Republicans will make a net gain of 3 seats.

Such a gain would increase their Senate majority from the current 51 to 49 (when Independent Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont is counted with the Democrats) to 54 to 46.

The Republicans appear poised to pick up seats in five states where Democratic incumbents are retiring--Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina

But they appear likely to lose only two seats held by GOP retirees--Illinois and Colorado.

In addition, the GOP should retain hotly contested seats in Oklahoma and Alaska (where appointed Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski will win a term of her own).

Here is my state-by-state analysis (incumbents' names are in bold face).

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Likely Republican Pick-Ups

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Florida Mel Martinez Betty Castor Former HUD Secretary leads in recent polls for seat of retiring Democrat Bob Graham Georgia Rep. Johnny Isakson Rep. Denise Majette Isakson is slam-dunk over Majette to succeed retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D). Louisiana* Rep. David Vitter Chris John, John Kennedy, others* Vitter could win 50% and avoid run-off to replace retiring Sen. John Breaux (D). North Carolina Rep. Richard Burr Erskine Bowles Burr has momentum over former Clinton chief of staff to replace John Edwards. South Carolina Rep. Jim DeMint Inez Tannenbaum DeMint holds constant lead to succeed retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D).

Leaning Republican Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski Tony Knowles Murkowski is over bad press for being appointed by her father, the governor. Oklahoma Tom Coburn Rep. Brad Carson Big Bush margin in Oklahoma should help Coburn edge Carson.

Certain Republican Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Alabama Richard Shelby Wayne Sowell Shelby has $11 million in campaign kitty and is the most popular politician in Alabama Arizona John McCain Stu Starky McCain is an institution in Arizona after 22 years in Congress. Idaho Mike Crapo Scott McClure Former Republican McClure is write-in candidate. Iowa Charles Grassley Art Small Since he entered state legislature in 1958, Grassley has never lost an election. Kansas Sam Brownback Lee Jones After two tough campaigns, Brownback will slam-dunk unknown Jones. Kentucky Jim Bunning State Sen. Daniel Mongiardo Bunning should roll to landslide over physician Mongiardo Missouri Kit Bond State Treasurer Nancy Farmer Bond coasting to third Senate term from Show-Me state. New Hampshire Judd Gregg Doris "Granny D" Haddock Gregg has no trouble in third-term bid against 90-something "Granny D". Ohio George Voinovich State Sen. Eric Fingerhut Voinovich leads 58% to 32% in Cleveland Plain Dealer poll. Pennsylvania Arlen Specter Rep. Joseph Hoeffel After near-defeat in primary, Specter now strong favorite for fifth term. Utah Robert Bennett Paul Van Dam Bennett will win third term in seat his father held for four terms.

Likely Democratic Pick-Ups

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Colorado Pete Coors State Atty. Gen. Kenneth Salazar Coors has been hurt by contrast between his conservative values and corporate practices. Illinois Alan Keyes State Sen. Barack Obama Convention keynoter Obama is already campaigning for candidates in other states

Leaning Democratic Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS South Dakota John Thune Tom Daschle Former Rep. Thune has given Daschle horserace, but lacks Daschle's endgame resources. Washington Rep. George Nethercutt Patty Murray Murray favored despite of hard-hitting ads featuring her praising Osama Bin Laden.

Certain Democratic Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Arkansas State Sen. Jim Holt Blanche Lincoln Lincoln holds massive lead in most polls over one-term State Sen. Holt. California Bill Jones Barbara Boxer Ex-Secretary of State Jones could not raise money against two-termer Boxer. Connecticut Jack Orchulli Christopher Dodd Dodd is shoo-in over clothier Orchullli. Hawaii Kam Cavasso Daniel Inouye 42-year incumbent Inouye has no trouble with GOP newcomer Cavasso. Indiana Marvin Scott Evan Bayh Bayh waltzing to second term over educator Scott. Maryland State Sen. E.J. Pipkin Barbara Mikulski Mikulski has 2-to-1 lead in most polls. Nevada Richard Ziser Harry Reid Reid so secure he has gotten Republicans to donate to him over businessman Ziser. New York Howard Mills Charles Schumer Schumer will beat Mills and Conservative nominee Marilyn O'Grady. North Dakota Mike Liffrig Byron Dorgan Dorgan looks like landslide winner against newcomer Liffrig. Oregon Al King Ron Wyden Wyden running far ahead of underfinanced ex-State GOP Vice Chairman King. Vermont Jack McMullen Patrick Leahy Leahy holds big lead for fifth term over businessman McMullen. Wisconsin Tim Michels Russell Feingold Former U.S. Army Ranger Michels waging a spirited race but Feingold will survive.

*Under Louisiana law, candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot and, if no one has a majority on November 2nd, the top two vote-getters meet in a December run-off. John Gizzi is Political Editor of HUMAN EVENTS.

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[edchambers]

In order to help the Coors candidacy I pledge to drink no less than 1 six pack of Coors per day I may double up on that for the weekends though.Oh Oh, I'm behind schedule buurrrp.

[ken5050]

I don't know if you remember back in the 60-70..when Coors was a regional brand...it had a HUGE cult following back here in the east coast. Paul Newman loved the stuff..he'd send a truck out there once a month to bring it back to his house in CT...

[SoDak]

It's time

[zbigreddogz]

Blah blah blah. Oh no! One poll only had Bunning up by 9%!

Please, wake me up when something happens.

Seriously, don't worry about it. We arn't going to lose Kentucky. The only GOP incumbent that might lose is Lisa Murkowski. Nobody else is losing.

[edchambers]

I have heard that it was banned in some states for awhile but the reason was never clear as to why.Some say that it was because it was non union others say it was because it was not homogenized.My parents were so fond of it they would take cases with them when they traveled just in case they couldn't find it where they were going.

[zbigreddogz]

I wouldn't say 'any' hope, but yah, if it goes to a runoff, I'd have to say it's the Dems seat to lose.

It is worth noting though, that Landreu only won 52-48 in the runoff, and Suzie Terrell was a BAD candidate. Vitter is a great candidate, so I wouldn't write it off completely.

[isom35]

well, if john gizzy says so, it must be true. btw, who the heck is john gizzy?

[ken5050]

It's always what you can't have, you want the most. I rememebr in the 70's..there's a local NY breweruy..Gennessee...made a beer like warm cow piss....I was on a business trip to Minneapolis..we're out pubcrawling..this tavern has Gennessee at like $4 a bottle, back then...

[zbigreddogz]

Yah, it happened. East of the mountains, during the R's best year since 80, which was their best year since...Lincoln, after Foley sued his own constituents.

It's not the same thing. Foley had won close elections before in a conservative area, and finally lost one. Washington State isn't conservative, I know, I live 20 minutes from the heart of the best.

I'd love to think you are right, and I'd be out of my mind extatic if I am wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm not.

[edchambers]

I have heard that it was banned in some states for awhile but the reason was never clear as to why.Some say that it was because it was non union others say it was because it was not homogenized.My parents were so fond of it they would take cases with them when they traveled just in case they couldn't find it where they were going.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

Amen.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

The "larger picture" strategy you mention is exactly the point I tried to impress upon Mr. Thune on two occasions. From what I see of his campaign, he's not afraid of the strategy. I was very heartened to hear a commercial that mentioned "John Thune & President Bush" numerous times though it was sponsored by the Rep. Senatorial Cmmtt and not the Thune campaign. John Thune is doing well. I just listened to a part of a debate and had to laugh when Tom Daschle said John Thune is someone who turns away from a fight. Poor Tom can't help but be in this fight that John has brought to him.

[Woogit]

I certainly hope it gets impressed on the voters. I have added Mr. Thune to my prayers as I'm sure others have. I hope President Bush will have time to make a stop in South Dakota. A Thune win is so important for all of America.

[Pilsner]

Some years all the close races seem to go one way. '74, 80, '86, '94. Lets hope they all go the right way this year.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

Thanks for the prayers for our state's election. I am holding out hope that as things look more and more secure for the president, he will pay us a visit. Last election, I felt Thune wanted him at arms length, but this time he may be more open to a visit by the POTUS.