Posted on 10/15/2004 11:10:39 AM PDT by Theodore R.
the only way that daschle will win now is fraud. thune cant
let that happen.
Considering RI went harder for Gore then any other state (well over 60% for Gore) in the union, Chaffee isn't really all that bad. He votes with us roughly 40% of the time. The other D there votes with us roughly 5%. Given the choice, I'd keep Chaffee.
It would be nice if GWB had a nice big fat lead right now so that he could more vigouously offer his coat tails to the struggling senatorial candidates........when he campaigned for them in 2002, my gosh, it was a beautiful sight!
My prediction is Nethercutt (who debates Murray tonight for the first time) wins a squeaker 50.5% to 49.5% Murray sues...election fraud by WA Dems is uncovered and we have the first WA senator from east of the Cascade Mtns in 84 years.
Wrong
Kind of. My wife and I are running a bunch of Jeffco Precincts for the 96 Hour Task Force and it's kind of one big family between us and the Coors folks.
But in 2002, our internal tracking polls were spot on--they showed us up 5%. National pollsters do really poorly in Colorado as a general rule.
Oh, how I wish I could believe this!
Unfortunately, Nethercutt can win every single county except King and still lose the election.
I'd love to get rid of Osama Bin Murray, especially seeming as how I'm a Washintonian, but in the end, I'd have to say that Nethercutt won't make it. He's just too decent of a guy for the screeching left in Seattle.
Is it possible for Nethercutt to win? Yes, but I'd give it a 20/1 shot at best.
Yah, he's got more money then he knows what to do with!
And in a state with a population of half a million, I think Thune shaking hands till his thumb falls off will have at least as much impact as money anyway.
In '94 against the Speaker of the House, George lost Spokane County and still won by 3500 votes. It can happen...and it will.
Vitter's fate will be determined by which Dem gets in the runoff with him. Chris John would likely lose the runoff to Vitter, as the minority voting block has already signed on to Kennedy, and its doubtful they would turn out again for a candidate they are lukewarm about as best. This wasn't the case with Landrieu in 2002, as minorities delivered big time for her. Also, if GOP control of the Senate is a done deal by the time of the December runoff, perhaps LA voters would for once wise up and send up a member of the majority party.
Keeping fingers crossed.
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Florida | Mel Martinez | Betty Castor | Former HUD Secretary leads in recent polls for seat of retiring Democrat Bob Graham |
| Georgia | Rep. Johnny Isakson | Rep. Denise Majette | Isakson is slam-dunk over Majette to succeed retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D). |
| Louisiana* | Rep. David Vitter | Chris John, John Kennedy, others* | Vitter could win 50% and avoid run-off to replace retiring Sen. John Breaux (D). |
| North Carolina | Rep. Richard Burr | Erskine Bowles | Burr has momentum over former Clinton chief of staff to replace John Edwards. |
| South Carolina | Rep. Jim DeMint | Inez Tannenbaum | DeMint holds constant lead to succeed retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D). |
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Alaska | Sen. Lisa Murkowski | Tony Knowles | Murkowski is over bad press for being appointed by her father, the governor. |
| Oklahoma | Tom Coburn | Rep. Brad Carson | Big Bush margin in Oklahoma should help Coburn edge Carson. |
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Alabama | Richard Shelby | Wayne Sowell | Shelby has $11 million in campaign kitty and is the most popular politician in Alabama |
| Arizona | John McCain | Stu Starky | McCain is an institution in Arizona after 22 years in Congress. |
| Idaho | Mike Crapo | Scott McClure | Former Republican McClure is write-in candidate. |
| Iowa | Charles Grassley | Art Small | Since he entered state legislature in 1958, Grassley has never lost an election. |
| Kansas | Sam Brownback | Lee Jones | After two tough campaigns, Brownback will slam-dunk unknown Jones. |
| Kentucky | Jim Bunning | State Sen. Daniel Mongiardo | Bunning should roll to landslide over physician Mongiardo |
| Missouri | Kit Bond | State Treasurer Nancy Farmer | Bond coasting to third Senate term from Show-Me state. |
| New Hampshire | Judd Gregg | Doris "Granny D" Haddock | Gregg has no trouble in third-term bid against 90-something "Granny D". |
| Ohio | George Voinovich | State Sen. Eric Fingerhut | Voinovich leads 58% to 32% in Cleveland Plain Dealer poll. |
| Pennsylvania | Arlen Specter | Rep. Joseph Hoeffel | After near-defeat in primary, Specter now strong favorite for fifth term. |
| Utah | Robert Bennett | Paul Van Dam | Bennett will win third term in seat his father held for four terms. |
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Colorado | Pete Coors | State Atty. Gen. Kenneth Salazar | Coors has been hurt by contrast between his conservative values and corporate practices. |
| Illinois | Alan Keyes | State Sen. Barack Obama | Convention keynoter Obama is already campaigning for candidates in other states |
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| South Dakota | John Thune | Tom Daschle | Former Rep. Thune has given Daschle horserace, but lacks Daschle's endgame resources. |
| Washington | Rep. George Nethercutt | Patty Murray | Murray favored despite of hard-hitting ads featuring her praising Osama Bin Laden. |
| STATE | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | ANALYSIS |
| Arkansas | State Sen. Jim Holt | Blanche Lincoln | Lincoln holds massive lead in most polls over one-term State Sen. Holt. |
| California | Bill Jones | Barbara Boxer | Ex-Secretary of State Jones could not raise money against two-termer Boxer. |
| Connecticut | Jack Orchulli | Christopher Dodd | Dodd is shoo-in over clothier Orchullli. |
| Hawaii | Kam Cavasso | Daniel Inouye | 42-year incumbent Inouye has no trouble with GOP newcomer Cavasso. |
| Indiana | Marvin Scott | Evan Bayh | Bayh waltzing to second term over educator Scott. |
| Maryland | State Sen. E.J. Pipkin | Barbara Mikulski | Mikulski has 2-to-1 lead in most polls. |
| Nevada | Richard Ziser | Harry Reid | Reid so secure he has gotten Republicans to donate to him over businessman Ziser. |
| New York | Howard Mills | Charles Schumer | Schumer will beat Mills and Conservative nominee Marilyn O'Grady. |
| North Dakota | Mike Liffrig | Byron Dorgan | Dorgan looks like landslide winner against newcomer Liffrig. |
| Oregon | Al King | Ron Wyden | Wyden running far ahead of underfinanced ex-State GOP Vice Chairman King. |
| Vermont | Jack McMullen | Patrick Leahy | Leahy holds big lead for fifth term over businessman McMullen. |
| Wisconsin | Tim Michels | Russell Feingold | Former U.S. Army Ranger Michels waging a spirited race but Feingold will survive. |
Does this include the one we're going to lose in Illinois?
what's your opinion on why the national polls do so poorly with Colorado? What are they missing?
That being said, if there is a runoff, the pubbies can kiss any hope of taking the seat goodbye.
They treat Colorado like an urban state. They don't understand how to model the rural vote, which is really big and really republican--at least that's what I've been told by those who ought to know.
Also, if GOP control of the Senate is a done deal by the time of the December runoff, perhaps LA voters would for once wise up and send up a member of the majority party.
That situation also applied in December 2002, but LA stuck with the familiar Democrat candidates.
No, the die is cast. It's Obama in IL and Osama Murray in WA. People "believe" in those two.
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