John Gizzi: Republicans Likely to Pick Up {Three} Senate Seats

Human Events Online ^ | 10-15-04 | Gizzi, John

[Theodore R.]

-- Republicans Likely to Pick Up Senate Seats by John Gizzi Posted Oct 15, 2004

With two weeks to go before voters go to the polls in 34 states to choose U.S. senators, prospects are good the Republicans will make a net gain of 3 seats.

Such a gain would increase their Senate majority from the current 51 to 49 (when Independent Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont is counted with the Democrats) to 54 to 46.

The Republicans appear poised to pick up seats in five states where Democratic incumbents are retiring--Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina

But they appear likely to lose only two seats held by GOP retirees--Illinois and Colorado.

In addition, the GOP should retain hotly contested seats in Oklahoma and Alaska (where appointed Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski will win a term of her own).

Here is my state-by-state analysis (incumbents' names are in bold face).

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Likely Republican Pick-Ups

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Florida Mel Martinez Betty Castor Former HUD Secretary leads in recent polls for seat of retiring Democrat Bob Graham Georgia Rep. Johnny Isakson Rep. Denise Majette Isakson is slam-dunk over Majette to succeed retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D). Louisiana* Rep. David Vitter Chris John, John Kennedy, others* Vitter could win 50% and avoid run-off to replace retiring Sen. John Breaux (D). North Carolina Rep. Richard Burr Erskine Bowles Burr has momentum over former Clinton chief of staff to replace John Edwards. South Carolina Rep. Jim DeMint Inez Tannenbaum DeMint holds constant lead to succeed retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D).

Leaning Republican Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski Tony Knowles Murkowski is over bad press for being appointed by her father, the governor. Oklahoma Tom Coburn Rep. Brad Carson Big Bush margin in Oklahoma should help Coburn edge Carson.

Certain Republican Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Alabama Richard Shelby Wayne Sowell Shelby has $11 million in campaign kitty and is the most popular politician in Alabama Arizona John McCain Stu Starky McCain is an institution in Arizona after 22 years in Congress. Idaho Mike Crapo Scott McClure Former Republican McClure is write-in candidate. Iowa Charles Grassley Art Small Since he entered state legislature in 1958, Grassley has never lost an election. Kansas Sam Brownback Lee Jones After two tough campaigns, Brownback will slam-dunk unknown Jones. Kentucky Jim Bunning State Sen. Daniel Mongiardo Bunning should roll to landslide over physician Mongiardo Missouri Kit Bond State Treasurer Nancy Farmer Bond coasting to third Senate term from Show-Me state. New Hampshire Judd Gregg Doris "Granny D" Haddock Gregg has no trouble in third-term bid against 90-something "Granny D". Ohio George Voinovich State Sen. Eric Fingerhut Voinovich leads 58% to 32% in Cleveland Plain Dealer poll. Pennsylvania Arlen Specter Rep. Joseph Hoeffel After near-defeat in primary, Specter now strong favorite for fifth term. Utah Robert Bennett Paul Van Dam Bennett will win third term in seat his father held for four terms.

Likely Democratic Pick-Ups

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Colorado Pete Coors State Atty. Gen. Kenneth Salazar Coors has been hurt by contrast between his conservative values and corporate practices. Illinois Alan Keyes State Sen. Barack Obama Convention keynoter Obama is already campaigning for candidates in other states

Leaning Democratic Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS South Dakota John Thune Tom Daschle Former Rep. Thune has given Daschle horserace, but lacks Daschle's endgame resources. Washington Rep. George Nethercutt Patty Murray Murray favored despite of hard-hitting ads featuring her praising Osama Bin Laden.

Certain Democratic Holds

STATE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT ANALYSIS Arkansas State Sen. Jim Holt Blanche Lincoln Lincoln holds massive lead in most polls over one-term State Sen. Holt. California Bill Jones Barbara Boxer Ex-Secretary of State Jones could not raise money against two-termer Boxer. Connecticut Jack Orchulli Christopher Dodd Dodd is shoo-in over clothier Orchullli. Hawaii Kam Cavasso Daniel Inouye 42-year incumbent Inouye has no trouble with GOP newcomer Cavasso. Indiana Marvin Scott Evan Bayh Bayh waltzing to second term over educator Scott. Maryland State Sen. E.J. Pipkin Barbara Mikulski Mikulski has 2-to-1 lead in most polls. Nevada Richard Ziser Harry Reid Reid so secure he has gotten Republicans to donate to him over businessman Ziser. New York Howard Mills Charles Schumer Schumer will beat Mills and Conservative nominee Marilyn O'Grady. North Dakota Mike Liffrig Byron Dorgan Dorgan looks like landslide winner against newcomer Liffrig. Oregon Al King Ron Wyden Wyden running far ahead of underfinanced ex-State GOP Vice Chairman King. Vermont Jack McMullen Patrick Leahy Leahy holds big lead for fifth term over businessman McMullen. Wisconsin Tim Michels Russell Feingold Former U.S. Army Ranger Michels waging a spirited race but Feingold will survive.

*Under Louisiana law, candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot and, if no one has a majority on November 2nd, the top two vote-getters meet in a December run-off. John Gizzi is Political Editor of HUMAN EVENTS.

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[Theodore R.]

I think Gizzi is a little optimistic but in line with possibile election outcomes on Nov. 2. I am skeptical about his belief that David Vitter will win in LA though it is nearly certain that Vitter will poll more than 40 percent in the Nov. 2 senatorial "primary" in LA. I still think Breaux-Landrieu-Blanco will put Chris John over the top in the Dec. 4 "general election."

[Theodore R.]

I was not even aware that Bayh, Mikulski, Leahy, and some of the others were even on the ballot this year. The GOP gave many a free pass, but the Democrats contest most offices that they can.

[zbigreddogz]

We're gonna pick up 4 then, because we arn't going to lose Colorado.

[TJC]

I would switch LA and CO. I think Coors will win but Vitter will not get 50%+ and will not win the special election. Too bad.

[Timeout]

I think there's still a chance for Coors to pull it out. Would require good GOP turnout, but I wouldn't be surprised if he wins.

[Theodore R.]

Many of the poor and dispossessed in LA are "afraid" that Vitter will take food out of their mouths and will stick with the Chris John school of politics!

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

Just as well throw in South Dakota and make it 5.

[Redmen4ever]

The Democrat in this race is, of course, trying to take advantage of the Republican on the gay issue. They are shameless. The Democrat's strategy may be working with Gizzi; but, voters warm up to quasi-libertarian Republicans. The overwhelmingly majority of Americans actually think it is possible to treat all people with dignity AND uphold the family. Remember, Coors did unexpectedly well in the Republican primary, even compared to the last minute polls. He's already even with the Democrat in the polls, and can carry this state if we stand together. Don't let the Democrats split us up by playing the gay card

[ken5050]

Pete Coors should announce a "keg party" for the entire state if he wins..

[ModelBreaker]

We're gonna pick up 4 then, because we arn't going to lose Colorado.

Gizzi has no idea what's happening in Colorado. Our GOTV effort was shockingly effective in 2002 and we have three times as many volunteers this year. Coors GOTV in the primary is going to be in the 'how to run a campaign' textbooks for the next 20 years. Our internal polls are just fine. And, as long as we are even on election day, we will win by 5-6 points .

[eureka!]

"I think there's still a chance for Coors to pull it out. Would require good GOP turnout, but I wouldn't be surprised if he wins."

The GOP got a big old ground game going this year. Think 2002 off-season surprise. This year it is better....

[Texas Federalist]

Just as well throw in South Dakota and make it 5.

If that's the case, I'd rather kick Chafee out and make it 4.

[Woogit]

I pray that the good people of South Dakota will realize that, even though Daschle's clout may be good for bringing $$$ to their state, he is a huge hindrance to America as a whole. His hateful and obstructionist ways have been very hurtful to us as a nation.

[freepertoo]

Mikulski HAS to go...HAS to. She is horrible.

[TJC]

I could not agree more!

[Theodore R.]

People in MD would devote a holiday to Mikulski if given the chance.

[freepertoo]

Not this person in Maryland. Shudder.

[Renfield]

No, people in Prince George's County, Montgomery County, and Baltimore City would devote a holiday to her. The rest of us can't stand her.

By the way, E. J. Pipkin would make a great senator. He's the anti-Mikulski, a man who is right on just about every issue.

[RightWhale]

In Alaska both parties are accusing the other of failure in ANWR. Gov Murkowski is taking govern type action to get the state into ownership of the TransAlaska Natural Gas Pipeline, which may encourage building it, and to allow slant drilling under ANWR. This may make the points moot although gov't ownership of the projects are questionable on ideological grounds. Sen Murkowski and Tony Knowles are dead even, not a trend for the Rs.

[zbigreddogz]

You work for the Coors campaign?

Anyhow, yah, I agree. the GOP GOTV machine will push Coors over the top. Coors is either ahead or within the margin anyway, Allard was supposedly behind by like 6pts going into the election in 2002 and he won easy.