Posted on 09/23/2004 5:17:25 PM PDT by Libloather
Bush ahead in swing states, will defeat Kerry: Karl Rove
Thu Sep 23, 1:03 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - US President George W. Bush will defeat his Democratic rival, John Kerry, in the November 2 election because he is leading in the polls in the key US swing states, the president's top political adviser said in an interview.
Karl Rove, who has a Machiavellian reputation as a political mastermind, said in an interview with The Washington Times that many states "that were expected to be in close contention are floating out of contention" and into Bush's camp.
With the US electorate highly polarized and largely decided, there are only some 16 "battleground" states stretching from Oregon to Florida that are considered still up for grabs.
It takes 270 electoral votes of the 538 apportioned among the states and awarded in separate winner-take-all contests to win the election.
Rove told the newspaper that the swing states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are already in the Bush camp. The Republicans must now hang on to Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio, four key states that he won in 2000.
Nationally, Bush leads Kerry by five or six points, Rove said, citing internal campaign polls.
However, he warned about the debates the candidates have scheduled.
Kerry "will be the best debater the president's ever faced," Rove told the Times. "We underestimate Kerry at our peril. He is very good at this; he's an aggressor. He goes in there flailing."
But Rove believes that the biggest problem the Democrats have "is not getting Kerry's people to dislike Bush; it's getting (them) to like Kerry."
"Hatred is a powerful emotion, but it is not a very durable emotion. You cannot maintain hatred in your heart for another person and keep it for a long period of time," Rove said.
The November election is shaping up to be just as close as the 2000 cliffhanger in which outgoing vice president Al Gore won the popular tally but lost to Bush by five electoral votes.
"Hatred is a powerful emotion, but it is not a very durable emotion. You cannot maintain hatred in your heart for another person and keep it for a long period of time," Rove said.
I don't know, Karl. I'm starting to think I could feel this way about Kerry for a long, long time. Definitely the Swiftvets could.
"The November election is shaping up to be just as close as the 2000 cliffhanger in which outgoing vice president Al Gore won the popular tally but lost to Bush by five electoral votes."
In what fantasyland is this happening? From where I sit, George W is just about to put it away.
What is Rove up to now? You're right. That was my first question and I don't think I have ever been confused with a Rat.
Rove is trying to raise expectations for Kerry in the debates, making it easier for President Bush to win.
AS USUAL, the reporter displays his complete ignorance. NOT ALL of the states electoral votes are allocated in a "winner-take-all" fashion. There ARE states that allocate electoral votes according to other criteria--one state (don't recall which at the moment) having the electoral vote allocated by party majority vote in its Congressional districts, with two votes (representing the "Senatorial" electors) allocated according to the overall state majority vote.
I agree that we should NOT get too cocky or complacent. My past experience, however, has shown me that half the people the Dems sign up are disqualified and the majority of the remainder who do qualify don't show up to vote. The exception to this rule was in Florida, where the Dems in 2000 registered ALOT of Puerto Ricans in Central Florida and blacks throughout the state, the two demographics that made it so close, IMHO.
He's Lee Atwater II.
It appears that Florida, Nevada, and Ohio are in the Bush camp as well.
The campaign is being fought in the blue states. That's the death knell for the Kerry campaign, especially since Wisconsin is up 14% for Bush.
Confirmed by exactly nothing in the article.
he's no Lee Atwater, unless you think Rove is responsible for the swift boat vets. if Bush wins, they get the credit for cracking Kerry up.
This was posted about 6 minutes ago at DU from their timetag so about 9 minutes after posted here. It got their attention real fast.
Two states -- Maine and Nebraska.
In Maine the EV's get divided up in special cases.
The popular vote winner gets 2 EV's, the winner of Congressional District #1 gets 1EV and the winner of Cong Dist #2 gets 1EV. Bush is slightly ahead in Cong Dist #2 and slightly ahead, within margin of error in the state as a whole.
You have polls for the CD breakouts?
That much, I agree with. Almost every picture we've seen of Kerry throughout this campaign season bears this assessment out. Kerry is harsh, aggressive, and has body language that could be described as "flailing." However, I don't think that being harsh, aggressive and flailing necessarily equates to good. I think overbearing is more like it.
Thanks. I thought those were they, but was just too damned lazy at the moment to look'em up.
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