Posted on 09/10/2004 1:58:54 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
Gitmo is on the far eastern end of Cuba. The storm is going over the western half.
Currently winds at 145mmph..moving at 12 knts.
Pressure slightly higher.
Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 33a
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004
...Winds should begin to increase soon in Jamaica...preparations to
protect life and property should have already been completed.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for entire Cuba including the Isle of
Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning for the South Coast of eastern Cuba
from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 16.8 north...longitude 75.8 west or about 85 miles...
140 km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr.
This motion is expected to bring the core of Ivan to near Jamaica
tonight or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over
elevated terrain. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during
the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure by a reconnaissance plane was 939
mb...27.73 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.8 N... 75.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145
mph. Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila
NOGAPS opens the window for another Camille.
WOW!!! GREAT INFO....boy are you good...finding this radar of Crazy Ivan....does this one keep updating?
Got Strongtie? ;)
Strong storms go where they want to go. Moving over Jamaica like Ivan, there has never been a strong storm turn radically north as would be required for Florida to come into play. Almost every time they keep plodding on their historical path with an upward move deeper into the Gulf toward Louisiana or a slight upward move ending up in N Mexico or Texas.
Now check this out. The water vapor image clearly indicates where Ivan has to go. He can't go into the dry high pressure ridges.
But look at the ridge expanding toward Cuba. Stay tuned.
South Florida is looking more safe and the panhandle is looking more vulnerable.
Exactly. and the projection's going to keep shifting westward, mark my words.
I agree, starting to look like it's headed right for Tampa Bay. We're getting nervous - my brother-in-law and family live just east of there and I can't imagine they will be evacuating because he works for CentCom. Hopefully they can at least go to the base.
Great link; looking at it 3:00 PM EDT on Friday September 10, it appears possible that the eye might slide by to the south of Jamaica. I think the Jamaicans would appreciate Ivan's forbearance if that happens.
OMG...your right...this may not hit Florida at all...PTL...
I am a dialup, so water vapor image is a little too big for me. Water vapor never lies, where does the water vapor take Ivan?
Sigh.
sigh.
But if that crazy ridge keeps expanding down to Cuba, it's going to force Ivan to make a left hand turn and head to the Yucatan. The map you can't download shows a lot of water vapor already choosing that fork in the road.
I guess I will defer to the experts who make this a Florida hurricane, and it surely will be one if the ridge doesn't make it to Cuba, but I'm far more uncertain this afternoon than I was this morning.
Look out, New Orleans!
OMG...can this be trusted...what say you???
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