Ivan ping!
This is a short-term, medium-volume ping list. If you want on or off, simply FReepmail me.
BTW, does anyone know how to board up bay windows?
Posted on 09/10/2004 1:58:54 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
Include me if you start one.
Blame? They will relish in the fact that this is happening thinking somehow this "proves their point". Imagine, relishing in the destruction of people's lives so you can feel your right. They are pitiful.
repeating my offer to Freeper horse owners who are evacuating Florida,
I have a small pasture where you can primitive camp with your horses. Free.
I am near the Raleigh, NC area.
Freepmail me for more info.
Looking at this morning's sat loops it looks as if the eye is going through a cycle. He's disorganized right now, but that eye will come back and the intensity will increase (it looks like) just before the storm hits Jamaica. This new eye formation will take place in the daytime, not good.
Pray people, pray.
I have a friend staying with me here in DC. He has property in the lower Keys, and is trying to get as much information about the possible route of Ivan as he can.
Thanks.
Storm not expected until daybreak on Monday. I just have too many preparations to deal with. Got the rest of the day securing my construction job sites and a few mor things to clear up in my yard.
If I decode to leave I'll get out Saturday late.
The bad thing about leaving is you may not et back for a while, perhaps a week and that is leaning me to staying. I rode out Georges in 1998 that had sustained winds 115-120 and gusts in the 140's.
Hoping Cuba knocks this one down into that category.
Georges wasn't fun to say the least and there was massive damage to many structures, but I built my house in 1996 to withstand 175 ,mph winds.
It's a crapshoot right now. I am exchausted already after doing the shutters. Anxiety is rampant among the locals here.
It's all so depressing.
Hey your friend from DC with property down here in the Lower Keys is free to call me for info if he likes. Been here for 30 years and been through this more times than I care to remmeber.
305-744-7971
He tends to be a real worrier, so I am trying to focus him on the options he would have in case the absolute worst happens (the absolute worst, in my view, being total destruction of all houses from the 7 -mile bridge south to Key West, one or two breaks in US Route 1 between Key Largo and Marathon, another break or two in Route 1 between the 7 mile bridge and Key West, and no water, electricity, telephone service, internet service, or cable service in the lower keys).
He has a couple of friends who have decided to ride out the hurricane, and they live in a house near to his property.
I'll wait until he is a bit more calm before I give him your number ....
THANKS again....
The news media will report the negative numbers as due to the hurricane. No big deal.
hope it doesn't hit Sanibel yet again.
Please add me to ping list
It's a lot more than that now. Collier County is the fastest growing county in the nation by some measures.
For example, Naples - where I live.
These latest tracks are disturbing.
visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with Ivan does not appear as well organized as it was yesterday. However...there are plenty of banding features and well-established outflow. You can see the convective ring associated with the eyewall on high resolution visible images. Super rapid scan IR images show the very strong convective ring currently re-developing around the eye. Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the surface pressure has risen to 934 mb but the flight level winds remain at 144 knots. This supports an initial intensity of 125 knots. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Ivan moves near or over Jamaica where the effects of the high terrain may weaken the hurricane. It is possible that Ivan will re-strengthen some between the Cayman Islands and Cuba where the ocean is quite warm. Once in the Gulf of Mexico...the shear is forecast to increase and Ivan should gradually weaken. Ivan is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane until it reaches the United States.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 knots...steered by the subtropical ridge over the Bahamas. As the ridge weakens...the steering currents should weaken too...and the hurricane will likely continue on a west-northwest to northwest track with a decrease in forward speed. There is still high confidence in this early portion of the forecast but...it becomes uncertain after the hurricane crosses Cuba when guidance shows that the hurricane could continue over the Gulf of Mexico or could turn north-northeast over Florida. In fact...this has been the case for the past couple of days. The official forecast does not favor one scenario more than the other...and brings the hurricane northward over the Gulf of Mexico very near and eventually over Florida.
Forecaster Avila
Ivan ping!
This is a short-term, medium-volume ping list. If you want on or off, simply FReepmail me.
BTW, does anyone know how to board up bay windows?
I may or may not continue using it past Ivan - depends if we get more threatening hurricanes, which may be possible. {sob}
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 33
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 10, 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan gradually approaching Jamaica...expected
to move slowly between the Cayman Islands and Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the entire island and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...all warnings and watches have been
discontinued for the Dominican Republic.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 16.5 north...longitude 75.1 west or about 155 miles...
245 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr.
This motion is expected to bring the core of Ivan to near Jamaica
tonight or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over
elevated terrain. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during
the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...16.5 N... 75.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.