Posted on 09/10/2004 1:58:54 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
It is looking more and more like a shift to the right the last 2 cycle runs for these models. Looks like landfall from Naples to Sarasota...exiting northern Brevard/Volusia county.
Landfall a strong CAT 3 weak CAT 4...leaves the state a CAT 2 storm.
Watch the 5 pm track tonight...money on it says the storm will be projected 20 miles further south and across central florida.
I'm down here in the Lower Florida Keys, looking like this one gets us. Put up the shutters yesterday and sending the wife and dogs on the road today. Still have to clean up the yard and secure construction sites as I am a general contractor.
Haven't decided yet whether to ride this one out or get out of town myself.
Anxiety is high in these parts.
Man, let me tell you I'm keeping a close eye on that storm path! We weren't hit badly, we just lost power. I still know friends at work who are without any. One more hit for some of those people, though, I just don't know what we'd do. At least we have warnings enough to get out of the way.
Once this storm passes and I know I don't need my emergency supplies, I'm donating all of them. It's just that right now, I don't know if I'll be living off them in a few days myself.
Charlie spared Cayman but it looks like Cayman Brac and Little Cayman are going to be hammered by Ivan (the Terrible), with Grand Cayman about 100 miles out of the expected direct line of fire. Tourists are all quickly leaving the Island, leaving only the natives to weather the storm under piles of American cash.
Please be careful!
God help us.
We here in Citrus county Florida only had minor damage from Frances. Yet many trees were knocked down/flooding, many are still without electricity, schools were closed all week.
We just had our telephone service restored yesterday.
Personally, we had tree damage and a tree fell on our storage shed ruining everything in it.. I feel Blessed, as it could have been much worse.
Now we're bracing for Ivan. We all need to gas up now.
For all of you who have gone through any category hurricane, my heart goes out to you!
Stay safe and Godspeed!!
Hopefully, Ivan doesn't hit Florida. It's the last thing the state needs. But if it does hit Florida, landfall along the extreme SW coast wouldn't be too bad -- it's mainly Everglades National Park.
Ivan doesn't seem to like Fidel. Most of the projected paths take it within 50 or so miles of Havana.
Oh, lovely. Right over my house. And I just lost another of my giant pine trees yesterday morning because the roots couldn't hold in this soggy, sandy excuse for 'dirt' Florida has. It had already assumed a slight tilt from long-ago storms and Frances pushed it over to a 45 degree angle but just couldn't take it anymore after the gullywasher we had night before last. I'm going to miss the shade around here if we get whomped.
If anyone has a hurricane ping list add me, or if not, I'll start one.
Sad to say, I really can picture a Democrat like Kerry trying oh-so-seriously and sensitively to negotiate with an international council of hurricanes.
We're in Jax and there were quite a few folks who boarded up for Frances. We only took down 2 on the first floor. As crazy as this has been might as well wait. Some still without power. The schools here have been closed all week until today. It's hard to imagine how stressful it is on those who've been in the main hit from Charley and Frances.
You're so right. We've been praying every day for those south of us. It's hard to imagine. A friend in Orlando said so many feel like they can't bear anymore. Long lines, lack of supplies etc, he said looks of weariness on peoples' faces. It's going to be really devastating for another one to hit!
Whatever you do, keep yourself safe.
Get out! No way anyone can predict what damage or injury could happen. Not worth the risk imo.
ping
The envirowackos must be blaming these on Kyoto, whose "drop dead signup date" have officially passed.
SHEESH! It's almost like Ivan is pissed off that Charley missed Tampa/St. Pete and is going to give it another try.
Finished? I was down there last year for the first time since 92. I can't believe how some areas are still just as they were, save for being picked up of course.
Has Al-Quaeda claimed responability for the hurricanes, yet?
Went through one, but that was years back. My prayers and focus are on those of you in the here and now. STay safe!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.