Posted on 09/10/2004 1:58:54 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
You're not too far from me!
With the lines I saw today, I wouldn't be surprised if there was no gas tomorrow. People are really taking this one seriously.
But Charlie turned two hours before landfall, so you just never know!
Good luck! I'm going to bed now. My daughter has a friend sleeping over and they're still up! I'm getting beaten by a couple of six year olds!!!
This should prove interesting...
Fla. Man May Try To Reduce Ivan's Strength
Cordani Wants To Dump Absorbent Material From 747
POSTED: 4:14 pm EDT September 10, 2004
UPDATED: 4:18 pm EDT September 10, 2004
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- A South Florida businessman says he's going to try to reduce the strength of Hurricane Ivan by flying a Boeing 747 into the edge of the hurricane and dumping thousands of pounds of an absorbent material into the storm.
Peter Cordani of Jupiter plans to try to knock the storm down by one or two categories by dropping tons of powder that absorbs 3,000 to 4,000 times its weight.
http://www.local6.com/weather/3722239/detail.html
Very hard prediction for me to make, too, because that puts it heading right over me...
It doesn't really matter, though, since the tropical storm-force portion of Ivan is over 300 miles in diameter, with rain and light wind extending out at least 50 more in each direction. Larger than Frances and more powerful than Charley. Sucks. Really, really sucks.
BTW, sorry for the delay posting. My Internet connection is fritzing out on me again...
155... 156... that whole 1mph makes all the difference. Prayers tonight for Jamaica.
Forecasters say there's a very strong trough of dry air pushing down over Louisiana right now, and it will make Ivan turn north.
Good luck to you, Nauti, and to all our Florida FReepers!
I'll be praying for all of ya in church on Sunday.
Probably not.
Hurricane-fighting plan described as unrealistic
Weather experts say it's a plan that will never work.
I understand...thanks for that info....I understand it will probably go into that curve of Florida right by the Panhandle.
Yep, that's what I'm hearing. :-(
Off to bed, praying tomorrow will be a better day...
It doesn't really matter, though, since the tropical storm-force portion of Ivan is over 300 miles in diameter
No offense, but where are you getting 300 miles. I've been seeing hurricane force winds extend 60 miles from the center with tropical storm winds at 125 from that?
Has this thing not only gotten stronger but doubled in size?
Looks as if the eye's gonna skirt right around the southwest coast of Jamaica, which means that for the time-being Ivan should stay a bit more intense than it's been forecast. My personal intuition is that it's gonna wallop somewhere between Panama City and Pensacola, but that's not really based on anything much (except that the projected track keeps drifting westward).
From the center 60+125=185...each direction from the center...equals 370 miles across.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...
It's (60+175) x 2 = 470 miles as of the 11pm advisory.
Oh, wait! What was I thinking? You don't add the hurricane force and tropical storm zones together. They are overlapped. So, the tropical force winds extend out to 175 miles from the center, and so Ivan is 350 miles across.
Great....maybe I'll unboard my house by Christmas.
Leni
I wish it wouldn't hit any place...that's what I wish!! I wish it would fade AWAY!!!
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