Little change here...
Posted on 09/10/2004 1:58:54 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004
REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
If you didn't live in Florida I would say that was mean...........
WalMart rules! LOL Maybe someone with a Sav will see the post.
Having to stock up on batteries, canned goods etc will have you looking for a deal. I got 4 packs of C and D batteries for $1 at the dollar store. Needless to say I think I have plenty of batteries. LOL
LOL
I'll email that to my Texas relatives!
It needs a "CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE" sign, but it's right on!!!
Glad to see you found a better site!
Still, one can't help...
It shows 130 kt (150 mph) winds, and a central pressure of 926 mb. A little slow on the uptake as far as the strengthening goes - waiting to see the discussion for the 11pm advisory. I think, though, with such a low pressure, Ivan is defintiely strengthening, and we may see it bumped up to a Cat. 5 with the 2am advisory...
That is sooo funny, Thanks!
The rumor about gas rationing had lines up to an hour at all the gas stations around me. I am north of Tampa.
Did it affect you guys too?
Grocery stores are getting bare and plywood is hard to find. A neighbor told me Lowe's only let him buy 15 sheets. He has the same model home as I do and we have 18 windows, three doors and three sliding doors on our houses!
Take care! GG
Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 35
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 11, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince. This
warning will likely be discontinued later tonight.
A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of Youth...
and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast
of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba. Hurricane
warnings may be required for portions of western Cuba on
Saturday...and tropical storm warnings may be required for portions
of central Cuba.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea...as well as southern
Florida...should closely monitor the progress of dangerous
Hurricane Ivan.
Hurricane center located near 17.6n 76.9w at 11/0300z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 926 mb
The latest IR loop shows some very high organization. Wow. Wish the visible could be seen. It looks like a more westerly course than was expected and Kingston is starting to get the worst of the storm (NE portion). I'm a little concerned that the eye will merely skirt the coast and not make landfall.
Developing...
{Always wanted to say that...}
I bought gas today around noon and the lines were not bad. By this evening, there were some lines but not long waits.
As for groceries, our stores, at least in Homestead have not fully stocked back up from Frances so supplies are harder to get then gas. I was able to find water tonight at BJ's but canned food and dairy products are hard to come by.
Home Depot had plywood but was limiting it to 10 sheets per customer.
Sounds like your neighbor should be at Lowes at 5am tomorrow looking for more wood.
You guys take care and keep safe through this...
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan nearing Jamaica...could reach category 5 strength before landfall...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince. This warning will likely be discontinued later tonight.
A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of Youth... and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba. Hurricane warnings may be required for portions of western Cuba on Saturday...and tropical storm warnings may be required for portions of central Cuba.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea...as well as southern Florida...should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 17.5 north...longitude 76.9 west or about 35 miles... 55 km...south of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease on forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring the eye of Ivan near or over the southern coast of Jamaica in the next few hours. The eye will then continue across the northwestern Caribbean to near the Cayman Islands late Saturday or Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph...250 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours... and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5 status before the eye reaches Jamaica.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km. Amateur radio reports indicate hurricane force winds over large parts of Jamaica.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb...27.17 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 76.9 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
$$
Thankfully, made hotel res four days ago. Nothing available now. Also filled four gas cans a couple of days ago. Pumps around here are either empty, or have lines wrapped around the block.
Still, 920 mb - damn!
I think they're nitpicking -- the term "nearly" is what keeps from being a 5.
Little change here...
Yeah. It doesn't make a difference in the amount of damage either - it's still the same wind speed!
Yeah. In my lap on Wednesday...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.