Hurricane Ivan Upgraded to Category 5 Hurricane

NOAA National Hurricane Center ^ | September 8, 2004 | NOAA National Hurricane Center

[bd476]

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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.

Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.

Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.

Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[Gabz]

Did you see this thread?

High Storm Cycle is Here to Stay

[Howlin]

Just for you

[Poohbah]

CONN, SONAR, CRAZY IVAN!

All stop, quick quiet.

[Joe Brower]

Judging from the current tracking charts, Florida is going to get hit no matter where exactly this storm goes.

Florida Freeper

I'm compiling a list of FReepers in Florida for use in the upcoming elections.
If you want to be added, please FReepMail me.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Fries up real well and tastes a lot like chicken.

Hmmmmmm.... that's what they all say! Doesn't EVerything taste like chicken if you deepfry it? ;-)

[JellyJam]

Thanx for putting me on your ping list. This thread is very helpful in keeping track of things.

[bd476]

One ping only Vasily.

One of my Top Ten Favorite Books and one of my Top Ten Favorite Movies. Sean Connery is one of my Top 10 Favorite Actors.

Crazy Ivan - turning leftrightrightleft

[Howlin]

My Personal Favorite

[shield]

BMP

[Howlin]

Oh, gosh.....I thought it was the first of November!

YIKES.

What's our average now, once every two or three weeks?

[Gabz]

Oh, gosh.....I thought it was the first of November!

LOL - and I thought you were doing a play on the countdown to the election.....all the blowing in the wind being done by the dems.............

[bd476]

Twin2, as far as I know the following is not verified yet, but it's probably fairly accurate:

Grenada news from online blog

[shield]

Yucatan. That's where I'd place my money.

Conditions are telling a different tale. But I'm with you on that one!!!

[bd476]

Doggone and weatherfreak might know which models were most accurate in predicting Frances' path.

[bd476]

You're welcome JellyJam, glad to help out anyway I can.

[Strategerist]

Turned out to be LBAR (which is rare, it's usually terrible, especially as a storm gets North of 20N) and the GFS (despite the impression the GFS was terrible on Frances; near landfall the GFS had tracks into South Carolina, but for the first 2/3rds of the storm, it showed Frances heading west, as it actually did, while most other models showed Frances heading off to the N.)

[alancarp]

The one movie I can recall acting PAYING to see twice in a theatre!

[Strategerist]

Statistically, though, based on storm activity, on average the "halfway point" of the season is September 10th, or two days from now..on average, half of the hurricanes and tropical storms of an average season have occured by September 10th.

So were a little less than halfway done with the season.

[bd476]

A blizzard with horizontal snow where all you can see is a faint glow of a still working street light 20 feet above your car, it's 20 below zero, with a wind chill of minus 35, your car stalled, then you ran out of gas, ice is forming on the inside of your windshield, a 4 foot snow drift is blocking exit from your car, all you have to eat is a stale Twinkie and a stick of Juicy Fruit and you'd take that over 3 Hurricanes?

Shuddering more than ever about Hurricanes.

[Gabz]

I am quite well aware of the "halfway point" of hurricane season.........