Rasmussen National Tracking Poll 9-2-04: Bush 49% Kerry 45%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9-2-04 | Scott Rasmussen

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.

This is the first time that Bush has reached the 49% mark in the Tracking Poll since Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday (March 2). It's also the first time Bush has been up by four points since April 26.

Kerry reached 49% a few times following his convention but neither candidate has yet reached the 50% mark.

Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release favorable/unfavorable ratings for Bush, Kerry, McCain, Schwarzenegger, and Giuliani.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern and results are reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Last night, we began our fall schedule of interviewing 1,000 Likely Voters each night (up from 500 earlier in the year).

Three-quarters of the interviews for today's report were completed after Monday's Convention speeches by John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Half were completed after the Tuesday speeches by Arnold Schwarzenegger and Laura Bush.

Our pre-Convention Electoral College projection shows Bush with 213 Electoral Votes to 207 for Kerry. The magic number needed for victory is 270 Electoral Votes.

[Dog]

No

Are you hoping Barnes will hurt Bush......and I see you still didn't answer me....about the polls.

[TigerDSL]

Keep in mind that Rasmussen was way off in 2000.

[comebacknewt]

Since the story was covered and analyzed extensively by many in the MSM in 1999 and 2000, it is hard to imagine the story will have "legs". If anything, it probably lifts the spirits of the rabid leftists for a couple of days and then disappears again.

On the positive side, the RATs are having to use this "October Surprise" in early September, and it keeps the focus of the campaign squarely on military issues -- not exactly Fn"s strong suit.

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Hmmmmmmm.....if any one out there happens to have the stats of how Rasmussen, Zogby, CNN/USAToday, Gallup did with their 2000 Presidential Predictions this might be the time to post it....

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Good point -- Kerry wanted this election to be about (his) "military service" and now he's reaping the fruits of that. SwiftBoatVets and (conservative) talk radio have taken Kerry's admonition to "bring it on" seriously -- NOW Kerry can't handle the heat!

[WildWeasel]

What battleground states is Kerry doing well in? I read Bush is ahead in PA, NM, WI, OH and FL.

[comebacknewt]

Ras was way off in 2000. He has dramatically changed his polling approach since then, however.

If anything, his numbers so far this year have favored the RATs more than most of the other main-stream polls.

[zbigreddogz]

Yah, yah yah, tie in Colorado, blah blah blah.

And Allard lost in 2002 by 5pts. That's what all the polls said.

[camas]

the DU is saying Bush dropped 2 or 3 point and it is now tied

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Funny how the DU can skew their "results" when they use a larger Democrat polling total than Republicans. The LA Times did that same thing a few months ago -- and then trumpeted their (biased) polling as "proof" that Kerry was moving up in the polls.....so sad to see those delusional people resorting to delusional (but predictable) tactics...

[TigerDSL]

Good to hear. I followed him closely in 2000 and was really disappointed with his results.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

Not to mention the Show Me State.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

Not to mention the Show Me State.

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Found this comparative table over here:
Which opinion polls predicted the 2000 Election best?

Which opinion polls predicted the 2000 Election best?
FINAL PUBLIC OPINION POLLS: AMERICAN ELECTION 2000
		Bush	Gore	Nader	Buchanan *	Lead	Ave
Media (Pollster)	100%	47.6%	47.8%	3.6%	1.0%	-0.2%	Error
CBS	100%	47%	48%	4%	1%	-1%	0.30
Fox (Opinion Dynamics)	100%	48%	48%	3%	1%	0%	0.30
Harris	100%	47%	47%	5%	1%	0%	0.65
CNN/USA Today (Gallup)	99%	48%	46%	4%	1%	2%	0.65
Reuters/MSNBC (Zogby)	100%	46%	48%	5%	1%	-2%	0.80
Pew	100%	49%	47%	4%	0%	2%	0.90
IBD/CSM/TIPP	100%	48%	46%	4%	2%	2%	0.90
ABC	99%	49%	46%	3%	1%	3%	0.90
Washington Post	99%	49%	46%	3%	1%	3%	0.95
NBC/WSJ (Hart/Teeter)	100%	49%	46%	3%	2%	3%	1.20
Newsweek	100%	49%	46%	5%	0%	3%	1.40
Voter.com (Lake/Goeas)	100%	51%	46%	4%	0%	5%	1.65
Marist College	100%	51%	46%	2%	1%	5%	1.70
Hotline	99%	51%	43%	4%	1%	8%	2.15
Rasmussen	100%	52%	43%	4%	1%	9%	2.40
ICR	99%	46%	44%	7%	2%	2%	2.45
Sources: AEI, PollingReport.com, WP,NYT,Gallup,TIPP
Compiled by Robert M. Worcester

[BlueAngel]

LOL!!!

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Okay, so Rasmussen was a BIT off....let's hope that polling practices have improved in the 4 years since then....

[pgkdan]

bump

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Here's some more interesting poll predictions/reults:
Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 -- National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
(Previous years' polling by clicking on the link.)

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
2000-Preliminary

	Gore	Bush	Nader	Un- decided	Other	Gore- Bush	Margin Error Poll - Elect	Candidate Error
Election Result	48%	48%	3%		1%	0%
Zogby	48%	46%	5%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1.0%
CBS	45%	44%	4%	5%	2%	1%	1%	0.5%
Harris (Phone)	47%	47%	5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0.0%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
Pew Research	47%	49%	4%	0%	0%	-2%	2%	1.0%
IBD/CSM/Tipp	46%	48%	4%	0%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
ICR/Politics Now	44%	46%	7%	1%	2%	-2%	2%	1.0%
NBC/WSJ	44%	47%	3%	4%	2%	-3%	3%	1.5%
ABC/WashPost	45%	48%	3%	3%	1%	-3%	3%	1.5%
Battleground	45%	50%	4%	0%	1%	-5%	5%	2.5%
					Avg. Error		2.2%	1.1%
Alternative Methods
Harris Interactive	47%	47%	4%	0%	2%	0%	0%	0.0%
Rasmussen	49%	40%	4%			9%	9%	4.5%

[Salvation]

BTTT for all to see!

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Now....either most of the pollsters were WAY OFF in their polling samples or the voters' opinion of who they were going to vote for radically swayed one way or the other when they went in the polling booths on election day. The same sort of thing happened up here in Canada a few months ago: The Conservatives led the Liberals a month or two before the election, the Libs started running all sorts of scare ads, most of the voters got "scared" of what a Conservative government might be like, and the Libs won going away....I don't, however, see that happening here in the US this time around.