Skip to comments.
Rasmussen National Tracking Poll 9-2-04: Bush 49% Kerry 45%
Rasmussen Reports ^
| 9-2-04
| Scott Rasmussen
Posted on 09/02/2004 1:52:31 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41 next last
To: faithincowboys
No
Are you hoping Barnes will hurt Bush......and I see you still didn't answer me....about the polls.
21
posted on
09/02/2004 2:07:06 PM PDT
by
Dog
To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
Keep in mind that Rasmussen was way off in 2000.
22
posted on
09/02/2004 2:07:49 PM PDT
by
TigerDSL
To: faithincowboys
Since the story was covered and analyzed extensively by many in the MSM in 1999 and 2000, it is hard to imagine the story will have "legs". If anything, it probably lifts the spirits of the rabid leftists for a couple of days and then disappears again.
On the positive side, the RATs are having to use this "October Surprise" in early September, and it keeps the focus of the campaign squarely on military issues -- not exactly Fn"s strong suit.
To: TigerDSL; All
Hmmmmmmm.....if any one out there happens to have the stats of how Rasmussen, Zogby, CNN/USAToday, Gallup did with their 2000 Presidential Predictions this might be the time to post it....
24
posted on
09/02/2004 2:10:00 PM PDT
by
ConservativeStLouisGuy
(11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
To: comebacknewt
Good point -- Kerry wanted this election to be about (his) "military service" and now he's reaping the fruits of that. SwiftBoatVets and (conservative) talk radio have taken Kerry's admonition to "bring it on" seriously -- NOW Kerry can't handle the heat!
25
posted on
09/02/2004 2:12:20 PM PDT
by
ConservativeStLouisGuy
(11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
To: faithincowboys
What battleground states is Kerry doing well in? I read Bush is ahead in PA, NM, WI, OH and FL.
To: TigerDSL
Ras was way off in 2000. He has dramatically changed his polling approach since then, however.
If anything, his numbers so far this year have favored the RATs more than most of the other main-stream polls.
To: faithincowboys
Yah, yah yah, tie in Colorado, blah blah blah.
And Allard lost in 2002 by 5pts. That's what all the polls said.
To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
the DU is saying Bush dropped 2 or 3 point and it is now tied
29
posted on
09/02/2004 2:17:18 PM PDT
by
camas
To: camas
Funny how the DU can skew their "results" when they use a larger Democrat polling total than Republicans. The LA Times did that same thing a few months ago -- and then trumpeted their (biased) polling as "proof" that Kerry was moving up in the polls.....so sad to see those delusional people resorting to delusional (but predictable) tactics...
30
posted on
09/02/2004 2:20:10 PM PDT
by
ConservativeStLouisGuy
(11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
To: comebacknewt
Good to hear. I followed him closely in 2000 and was really disappointed with his results.
31
posted on
09/02/2004 2:20:21 PM PDT
by
TigerDSL
To: WildWeasel
Not to mention the Show Me State.
To: WildWeasel
Not to mention the Show Me State.
To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
Found this comparative table over here:
Which opinion polls predicted the 2000 Election best?
Which opinion polls predicted the 2000 Election best? |
|
|
FINAL PUBLIC OPINION POLLS: AMERICAN ELECTION 2000 |
|
|
Bush |
Gore |
Nader |
Buchanan * |
Lead |
Ave |
Media (Pollster) |
100% |
47.6% |
47.8% |
3.6% |
1.0% |
-0.2% |
Error |
CBS |
100% |
47% |
48% |
4% |
1% |
-1% |
0.30 |
Fox (Opinion Dynamics) |
100% |
48% |
48% |
3% |
1% |
0% |
0.30 |
Harris |
100% |
47% |
47% |
5% |
1% |
0% |
0.65 |
CNN/USA Today (Gallup) |
99% |
48% |
46% |
4% |
1% |
2% |
0.65 |
Reuters/MSNBC (Zogby) |
100% |
46% |
48% |
5% |
1% |
-2% |
0.80 |
Pew |
100% |
49% |
47% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
0.90 |
IBD/CSM/TIPP |
100% |
48% |
46% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
0.90 |
ABC |
99% |
49% |
46% |
3% |
1% |
3% |
0.90 |
Washington Post |
99% |
49% |
46% |
3% |
1% |
3% |
0.95 |
NBC/WSJ (Hart/Teeter) |
100% |
49% |
46% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
1.20 |
Newsweek |
100% |
49% |
46% |
5% |
0% |
3% |
1.40 |
Voter.com (Lake/Goeas) |
100% |
51% |
46% |
4% |
0% |
5% |
1.65 |
Marist College |
100% |
51% |
46% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
1.70 |
Hotline |
99% |
51% |
43% |
4% |
1% |
8% |
2.15 |
Rasmussen |
100% |
52% |
43% |
4% |
1% |
9% |
2.40 |
ICR |
99% |
46% |
44% |
7% |
2% |
2% |
2.45 |
Sources: AEI, PollingReport.com, WP,NYT,Gallup,TIPP |
|
|
|
|
Compiled by Robert M. Worcester |
|
34
posted on
09/02/2004 2:24:49 PM PDT
by
ConservativeStLouisGuy
(11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
To: happydogdesign
To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
Okay, so Rasmussen was a BIT off....let's hope that polling practices have improved in the 4 years since then....
36
posted on
09/02/2004 2:26:00 PM PDT
by
ConservativeStLouisGuy
(11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
37
posted on
09/02/2004 2:29:34 PM PDT
by
pgkdan
To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
Here's some more interesting poll predictions/reults:
Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 -- National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure (Previous years' polling by clicking on the link.)
|
Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure 2000-Preliminary
|
Gore |
Bush |
Nader |
Un- decided |
Other |
Gore- Bush |
Margin Error Poll - Elect |
Candidate Error |
Election Result |
48% |
48% |
3% |
|
1% |
0% |
|
|
Zogby |
48% |
46% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1.0% |
CBS |
45% |
44% |
4% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0.5% |
Harris (Phone) |
47% |
47% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
Gallup/CNN/USA Today |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
Pew Research |
47% |
49% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
IBD/CSM/Tipp |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
ICR/Politics Now |
44% |
46% |
7% |
1% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
NBC/WSJ |
44% |
47% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
ABC/WashPost |
45% |
48% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
Battleground |
45% |
50% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
-5% |
5% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. Error |
2.2% |
1.1% |
Alternative Methods |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Harris Interactive |
47% |
47% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
Rasmussen |
49% |
40% |
4% |
|
9% |
9% |
4.5% |
|
38
posted on
09/02/2004 2:37:01 PM PDT
by
ConservativeStLouisGuy
(11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
39
posted on
09/02/2004 2:39:48 PM PDT
by
Salvation
(†With God all things are possible.†)
To: All
Now....either most of the pollsters were WAY OFF in their polling samples or the voters' opinion of who they were going to vote for radically swayed one way or the other when they went in the polling booths on election day. The same sort of thing happened up here in Canada a few months ago: The Conservatives led the Liberals a month or two before the election, the Libs started running all sorts of scare ads, most of the voters got "scared" of what a Conservative government might be like, and the Libs won going away....I don't, however, see that happening here in the US this time around.
40
posted on
09/02/2004 2:41:52 PM PDT
by
ConservativeStLouisGuy
(11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson