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HEADLINE: Bush Overtakes Kerry in Latest L.A. Times Poll
LA TIMES ^ | 8/25/04 | Ronald Brownstein

Posted on 08/25/2004 8:00:50 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants

WASHINGTON -- President Bush heads into next week's Republican national convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

For the first time this year in a Times survey, Bush led Kerry in the presidential race, drawing 49 percent among registered voters, compared to 46 percent for the Democrat. In a Times Poll just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry held a 2 percentage point advantage over Bush.

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error. But it fit with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

Although a solid majority of Americans say they believe Kerry served honorably in Vietnam, the poll showed that the fierce attacks on the senator from a group of Vietnam veterans criticizing both his performance in combat and anti-war protests at home have left some marks: Kerry suffered small but consistent erosion compared to July on questions relating to his Vietnam experience, his honesty and his fitness to serve as commander in chief.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; kerry; kewl; latimes; latpoll; poll
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To: pimpalize
the la times had arnold and that bustamante idiot neck and neck going into that recall election.

It was way worse than that. The LA Times poll on Aug 24 2003 had Bustamante up 35%-22% over Schwarzenegger. On Sep 12 it had him up 30%-25%.

On Oct 7 Arnold beat Bustamante by 16 points.

141 posted on 08/26/2004 12:48:41 AM PDT by Gideon7
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To: DB

THE KERRY CAMPAIGN
142 posted on 08/26/2004 12:55:14 AM PDT by One4Indictment
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To: DB

You could see it in Chris Matthews' approach these last two nights. He's lacking affirmations. Kerry needs to step up, and that's not happening.

The acolytes have whored their souls ... there's no Kerry backup whatsoever. He's a wraith.

He went on Comedy Central tonight!!!!

Let me repeat: He appeared on John Stewart's show on Comedy Central tonight! Hopefully he hit the Comedy West Southwest franchise while he was there. Fookin bizarre.


143 posted on 08/26/2004 1:00:20 AM PDT by Barlowmaker
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To: Barlowmaker

Take care of yourself and your family FIRST and ALWAYS! ;^) Right?


I do and always will. :)


144 posted on 08/26/2004 1:01:41 AM PDT by Lovergirl (Bush/Cheney / 4 more years)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
HEADLINE: Bush Overtakes Kerry in Latest L.A. Times Poll

And, "Unfit for Command" hasn't even hit the bookstores in California yet!
LOL!!!

145 posted on 08/26/2004 1:36:27 AM PDT by ppaul
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To: RightthinkinAmerican
Thanks for posting the sampling results. I refuse to register with them, so I was wondering if it was 14% Dim heavy like a few moths ago.

www.bugmenot.com is rather helpful when dealing with manditory registration sites, including the LA Times. With the firefox extension, it's even easier. (it opens a new window with the login information.)
146 posted on 08/26/2004 1:37:26 AM PDT by kingu (Which would you bet on? Iraq and Afghanistan? Or Haiti and Kosovo?)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
Man! Considering the left coast SLIMES is reporting this, the numbers must be even better for GWB!

Keep praying, working and giving $$ to the President's campaign, friends! Fight the good fight!!

147 posted on 08/26/2004 1:39:17 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: My Favorite Headache

+4 Wisconsin and Minnesota or possibly Iowa. Maybe MI if Kerry's support collapses to the high 30s.


148 posted on 08/26/2004 1:41:19 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Mad_Tom_Rackham

Kerry is like the picture of Dorian Gray. He is the picture.


149 posted on 08/26/2004 1:53:53 AM PDT by flaglady47
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To: lavrenti

O'Reilly on w/Ben Ginzberg was
utterly caught, fixated, in that
no-man's land of the "medal wars".
There was nothing too defensive &
smarmy for him to throw at Ben in
his desperation to save Kerry, no
characterization too low to make
of the SBVFT. The man has lost it.

Fighting the LAST WAR!

(As you well say...)


150 posted on 08/26/2004 1:56:22 AM PDT by txrangerette
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To: Torie

>>He is bleeding just by being coy about the details

Bob Dole said tonight that Kerry is a lucky man! He said with the RNC
starting next week, THAT convention story will knock this one off
all the front pages.

Bob Dole also pointed out 2.5 million Vietnam vets feel
stabbed in the back by Kerry....

and then another thing I had never considered...
He said MILLIONS of Americans have honorably and proudly
served our country in the National Guard...
And when Kerry slams Bush over his national guard service
his is slamming all those others.


151 posted on 08/26/2004 1:59:04 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: alydar

The fool has no choice.


152 posted on 08/26/2004 2:09:30 AM PDT by RVN Airplane Driver (www.RealHeroesVoices.com....see the real John Kerry)
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To: swilhelm73; kattracks; Cincinatus' Wife; Jenya; Ann Coulter; Navydog; greyfox; Mr. Silverback; ...

Kerry (from Nebraska) said several nutty things today...
He said it is a very BAD idea to re-open this damn thing
now. [talking about our Vietnam anti-war debate]

...OH REALLY? I'm not so sure. People are able to review
our history now more rationally, and genuinely THANK those
vets who served honorably.

FINALLY, they may get the hero's welcome they were denied 30 years ago.
[and John Kerry definately is NOT one of them]


153 posted on 08/26/2004 2:13:07 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: Bogey78O
It seems to me like GOP voters simply are not being polled like they used to be. Perhaps because their social status tends to make them avoid telemarketers and phone calls from strangers.

We do not accept incoming calls from strangers but do permit registered "identifiable" number to leave messages. The others are an intrusion and technology has made it possible to "reroute" them elsewhere. I did receive a call from Gallup once during dinner about a year ago. I politely asked them to take us off their call list and not disturb us again. The man on the other line was in shock, even though I was being polite. We haven't been polled by anyone since.

154 posted on 08/26/2004 2:20:20 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Democrats.. Socialists..Commies..Traitors...Who can tell the difference?)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

155 posted on 08/26/2004 3:02:34 AM PDT by oblomov
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John Kerry would LIKE us to focus on his 1960's resume, instead of his anti-war protester years, or his Senator Do-Little years.

So WHAT ELSE is on Kerry's resume from the 60's... OK, here's one from Kerry's own website...
From the summer before his Junior Year in College...

EMPLOYMENT
MONTH AND YEAR NAME AND ADDRESS OF EMPLOYER REASON FOR LEAVING
FROM TO
June`64 July`64 First National Stores Inc.   Middlesex Ave
Somerville, Mass.
Uninterested in work

156 posted on 08/26/2004 3:17:14 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

So Bush gets a pre-convention bump... but will he get a convention bump? I think it depends on how negative he is. The more he attacks John Kerry on substantive issues (such as his non-attendance of Intel committee meetings), the bigger the bump he will get. If he plays nice, no bump. We already know what Dubya stands for, we aren't going to be surprised. He has to say, "vote for me because Kerry's not a credible candidate." That's the only message that can resonate.


157 posted on 08/26/2004 3:42:06 AM PDT by xm177e2 (Stalinists, Maoists, Ba'athists, Pacifists: Why are they always on the same side?)
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To: FL_engineer

This depresses me.

You all have a say in who the next leader of the Free World is, while we mere minions just watch in awe. Or shock. Or both.

I have enough to depress me right now. I really don't need the future of the free world, something I can do NOTHING about, to be another one of my worries...

Maybe if my Republican-voting, Freeper American husband was still alive... but he ISN'T. And I'm helpless. I don't need to be pinged to threads like these, please....


158 posted on 08/26/2004 4:06:11 AM PDT by KangarooJacqui (http://www.RightGoths.com - Gothic. Freaky. Conservative. Got a problem with that?)
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To: dangus; Blood of Tyrants; randog; goldstategop; Reagan Man; over3Owithabrain; snooker; commish; ...
Normally one might expect that a MSM organization such as the LA Times would artificially push Bush's pre-convention poll numbers higher by over-sampling Republicans, first to minimize any post-convention bounce, second to make it appear that his numbers are going steadily south... However, it appears that the 'Swift Boat Vets for Truth' have had a large impact on Kerry's approval ratings in the national polls and it was suddenly necessary for the LA Times poll to shore up Kerry's poll numbers to keep him with in the margin of error of their August 21-24, 2004 poll.

Here are the LA Times August 21st-24th, 2004 published poll internal numbers for political affiliation for the three-way race between Bush, Kerry and Nader. These LA Times poll data are in a table format for easy reading.

This national three-way race poll which had 1,352 Registered voters, now shows Bush in the lead by 3% with Bush 47%, Kerry 44%, Nader 3%. The MoE is ±3.0% for this LA Times poll question number six.

Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll  Numbers
Favor  Bush 92.00% 14.00% 41.00% Bush: 47.00%
Favor  Kerry 4.00% 78.00% 40.00% Kerry: 44.00%
Favor  Nader 2.00% 3.00% 7.00% Nader: 3.00%
Other/UnDec 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% Other/UnDec 1.00%
Do  not  know: 2.00% 5.00% 10.00% Do  not  know: 5.00%
  100% 100% 100%   100%

Source: LA Times Presidential poll - August 21-24, 2004 PDF file, released August 25th, 2004: Question #6, page 9 of 25.

Here below is the distribution of the 1,352 registered voters necessary to recreate the numbers show in the table directly above. Remember that the numbers below must be rounded to NO decimal places to match the above LA Times published data.

Registered 1352        
Demographics Republicans Democrats Independents Total  Raw  Votes Poll  Results
Bush 399 80 151 630 46.60%
Kerry 18 432 146 596 44.08%
Nader 8 14 24 46 3.40%
Other/UnDec 0 0 8 8 0.59%
Don’t  know 7 29 36 72 5.33%
Won’t  Vote 0 0 0 0 0.00%
Total  Raw  Votes 432 555 365 1352 100%
Percentage: 31.95% 41.05% 27.00%   100%
           
Bush 92.36% 14.41% 41.37%    
Kerry 4.17% 77.84% 40.00%    
Nader 1.85% 2.52% 6.58%    
Other/UnDec 0.00% 0.00% 2.19%    
Don’t  know 1.62% 5.23% 9.86%    
Won’t  Vote 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%    
Total: 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%   Demographics


So the partisan affiliation weightings that were used by the LA Times are indicated in the table below. Remember, because of LA Times rounding of their poll numbers, the below breakdowns might have a ±1.2% variance. That being said, it appears that this latest LA Times three-way race presidential preference poll has 9.1% more Democrats than Republicans in its sample population. A 2%-3% advantage for Democrats over Republicans might be a more realistic set of demographic splits.

    Results    
    (Weighting)    
`        
  Republican 31.95% Republican  
  Democrat 41.05% Democrat  
  Independent 27.00% Independent  
         
    100.0%    
         


So what would the LA Times poll look like with a more reasonable national sample of say 35.1%(R), 37.1%(D), 27.8%(I)? Look below and you would see that Bush would now have a 7.8% lead, which would be clearly outside the 'Margin of Error' of the LA Times poll. Kerry has been sinking swiftly...

Adjusted  Numbers
49.3%
41.5%
3.4%
5.9%
100.0%
 
 
New  Weighting
 
 
35.1%
37.1%
27.8%
 
100.0%
 


Hope this helps...

dvwjr

159 posted on 08/26/2004 4:46:38 AM PDT by dvwjr
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To: HawkeyeLonewolf
He should get some pointers from Monica.


160 posted on 08/26/2004 4:50:33 AM PDT by ASA Vet (Tourette's syndrome is just a $&#$*!% excuse for poor *%$#** language skills.)
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