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Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Eighteen
BBC ^ | 8/25/04

Posted on 08/24/2004 8:58:28 PM PDT by nwctwx

Image Created By : TheCabal
Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat
Thread Eighteen
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The Threat Matrix

The title refers to a daily report given to the president of the United States detailing the most serious terrorist threats against the country. To tackle those threats, the government has formed a top-notch task force to infiltrate the terror cells and cut off the danger.

"Every morning, the president receives a list of the top ten terrorist threats - this list is known as the threat matrix."

We here at FR are trying to be in conjunction with the daily reports around the world that involve threats. We try to provide a storehouse of information that takes hours of research.

YOU be the Judge and get informed.

"I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat."

High alert after Russia jet crash

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the state security services, the FSB, to probe a plane crash, and another missing plane.

One plane with 42 people on board went down in the Tula region south of the capital, Moscow.

Meanwhile, air controllers say they lost contact with a second plane with 44 passengers on board, near the southern city of Rostov-on-Don.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: terror; threat; threatmatrix
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To: Oorang

Didn't the French make the stupid thong?

3,021 posted on 09/10/2004 4:31:36 PM PDT by JustPiper (Zell " We are LIBERATOR'S NOT Obstructionists!!!" Miller- OCCUPY THIS KERRY !!!)
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To: MamaDearest

Wish all the cameras downtown would track Obama and Richie Jr.!

3,022 posted on 09/10/2004 4:33:01 PM PDT by JustPiper (Zell " We are LIBERATOR'S NOT Obstructionists!!!" Miller- OCCUPY THIS KERRY !!!)
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To: ExSoldier; nw_arizona_granny

Ex-soldier or anyone I have a question between Russia and Georgia which one has the most military might? Which one of these would win an all out war?

Georgia slams Russia for Abkhazia rail resumption
10 Sep 2004 12:46:45 GMT

Source: Reuters

TBILISI, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Georgia strongly criticised Russia on Friday for resuming direct railway traffic with its separatist province of Abkhazia, saying it was an attempt by Moscow to "annex" the Black Sea region. The first train left the Abkhaz capital of Sukhumi for Moscow on Friday after an armed conflict between Georgia and Abkhazia in the early 1990s interrupted the Soviet-era link.

3,023 posted on 09/10/2004 4:46:25 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (Character exalts Liberty and Freedom, Righteous exalts a Nation.)
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Over 200 German tourists contract hepatitis A in Egypt

10 September 2004

BERLIN - Health authorities in Germany Friday said over 200 Germans tourists are now known to have contracted hepatitis A while staying at a hotel at the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Hurghada.

Issuing a national appeal, health officials called on persons who had stayed at the Siva Grand Beach Hotel in June and July to undergo tests for the highly infectious disease.

3,024 posted on 09/10/2004 5:01:20 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (Character exalts Liberty and Freedom, Righteous exalts a Nation.)
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Georgia is to Russia what Puerto Rico might be to America.

We have/had some troops there. AQ operates out of the Pankisi Gorge.

There is a risk of confrontation if we and Russia have a "failure to communicate". We need to start singing off the same sheet of music if we are now fighting the same enemy.

3,025 posted on 09/10/2004 5:04:10 PM PDT by callmejoe
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To: All

Sep 10 2004 1:33PM
Eight rebels killed in western Chechnya
KHANKALA. Sept 10 (Interfax) - Eight rebels have been killed in clashes in western Chechnya over the past 24 hours, Maj. Gen. Ilya Shabalkin, spokesman for the regional headquarters for the counter- terrorism operation in the North Caucasus, told Interfax on Friday.

3,026 posted on 09/10/2004 5:08:41 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (Character exalts Liberty and Freedom, Righteous exalts a Nation.)
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To: All
This is a follow up from yesterday. Has names in article.

Germans Arrested in South Africa on Nuclear Charges

A South African court on Thursday charged two German men who live in the country with illegally exporting equipment used to enrich uranium needed to make nuclear weapons.

Thursday's double arraignments came one day after Gerhard Wisser, 66, and Daniel Geiges, 65, were arrested by authorities. The men are alleged to have been involved in an international nuclear smuggling network linked to Abdul Qadeer Khan, the founder of Pakistan’s nuclear program. Last week a South African businessman was arrested on related charges.

For Wisser, it was the second arrest in one month's time. Officials first arrested him in Germany just over two weeks ago after the federal prosecutor's office in Karlsruhe said he was suspected of helping Libya acquire atomic weapons technology in 2001. He was later released on bail and allowed to return to South Africa, where he has been a longtime resident.,1594,1432_A_1324463_1_A,00.html?mpb=en
3,027 posted on 09/10/2004 5:13:43 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (Character exalts Liberty and Freedom, Righteous exalts a Nation.)
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To: callmejoe

Good research, callmejoe. Thanks for posting that. I look forward to your updates.

3,028 posted on 09/10/2004 5:25:58 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: British chick

Did you happen to see some of al-Qaeda Hunter's recent posts at It's Happening today? Some messages appear to indicate that the jihadis are peeved with al jazeera for not airing more of the tape. At least that is what I am garnering from the posts.

3,029 posted on 09/10/2004 5:30:32 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: null and void

LOL. Thanks for the smile, Nully.

3,030 posted on 09/10/2004 5:39:07 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: JellyJam

JellyJam, I did not know whether to laugh or cry at the new Florida postcard you posted, but I e-mailed it to family and friends!

3,031 posted on 09/10/2004 5:42:24 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: All

Warning of bomb in text message
By Marianne Kearney in Jakarta (Filed: 11/09/2004)

Indonesian police were warned about the bomb attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta in a mobile phone text message 45 minutes before the bomb exploded, Alexander Downer, the Australian foreign minister, said yesterday.

The message said a western embassy would be attacked unless Abu Bakar Bashir, the Islamic cleric being held on suspicion of involvement in terrorism, was released immediately.
Bashir, alleged to be the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah, the group behind the Bali bombings, is due to be put on trial later this month.

Mr Downer, who met President Megawati Sukarnoputri yesterday, said: "Terrorists need to know that the Indonesian and Australian governments, and others as well, will hunt them down until we catch every single one of them."

Indonesian police said they suspected Thursday's embassy attack, which killed at least nine people, was carried out by up to three people. "Militants arrested recently said there were three men who were ready to become suicide bombers," a police chief said.

© Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2004.

3,032 posted on 09/10/2004 5:43:07 PM PDT by penguino
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To: Donna Lee Nardo

Thanks for previous ping!

3,033 posted on 09/10/2004 5:46:20 PM PDT by penguino
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To: penguino

You are very welcome, penguino.

3,034 posted on 09/10/2004 5:47:41 PM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: callmejoe

This ROCKS joe, I'm going to be pondering it for a while.

3,035 posted on 09/10/2004 5:53:01 PM PDT by Godzilla (9/11 - Never Forget, Never Forgive)
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To: Admin Moderator

Oh goody. I got freepmail.

I love to get freepmail.

Off to my mail box.

3,036 posted on 09/10/2004 6:10:14 PM PDT by Calpernia ("People never like what they don't understand")
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To: All
Al Battar Issue No. 17
By SITE Institute
Published in: Al Battar September 10, 2004

The seventeenth issue of Al Battar focuses on the use of pistols, noting that, "The session explains the types of pistols, their mechanical systems, the shooting positions, and other useful information. It is extremely important for wars inside the cities."

An editorial by Al-Farouq Al-Aamri bashes the Saudi's latest disarmament campaign, in an effort to rid weapons from the kingdom. Al-Aamri writes, "Let us confront the disarmament campaign with one that calls for the spreading of weapons, and the alarming of the nation of the imminent danger surrounding it, and what needs to be done to confront it." Another commentary by Sheikh Abu Omar Al-Seif encourages joining the jihad, maintaining that "Jihad and Glory go together."

The news section recounts the martyrdom of several al-Qaeda supporters in recent clashes with Saudi security forces. It also discusses the hijacking of the Russian planes, the hostage crisis in Beslan, Russia, and highlights the claim that the Taliban have control over much of Afghanistan.

3,037 posted on 09/10/2004 6:24:50 PM PDT by Oorang (Intaxication:Joy at getting a tax refund, which lasts til you realize it was your $$ to begin with)
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To: callmejoe
Utter and absolute desperation can provoke reckless gambling - - actions that others would consider "madness".

Ahh, but then that increases their carelessness. However, I don't expect that kind of abandon soon, OBL has displayed great patience in the development and executions of AQ attacks.

3,038 posted on 09/10/2004 6:25:00 PM PDT by Godzilla (9/11 - Never Forget, Never Forgive)
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To: DAVEY CROCKETT; judicial meanz; Godzilla; All
As far as I know, any military equipment in Georgia is from WARSAW PACT reserves left by Russia when the USSR was dissolved. That would include all the maintenance requirements and parts, etc. Also the training on the weapons systems was Russian in nature. Now, unless Georgia has managed to fill these gaps from other sources (who will undoubtedly want payment) I'd say that the fight will be lopsided in Russia's favor. Of course in any war, the will to win is nearly everything. Enourmous odds can be overcome if you're dedicated enough. Look at the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan during the Russian occupation of the 1980's. Yes we supplied a sum of STINGERS but the Muj had that already won using 18th century technology. IE Muzzleloaders at times.
3,039 posted on 09/10/2004 6:33:52 PM PDT by ExSoldier (M1A: Any mission. Any conditions. Any foe. At any range.)
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To: tmp02; Oorang; drymans wife; MamaDearest; nwctwx; Domestic Church; Rushmore Rocks; Labyrinthos; ...
Terrorism Summary 9/10/04

Tomorrow we remember the third annversary of the terrorist strike on our country and the 3000 who died that day. Let us never forget how our world changed that day, and let us never allow those with “short term memory” from forgetting either .  Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
9/10/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04

1. Attack threat windows
9/8/04  Primary Window:  Between now and November 2nd.  No change since 8/16/04.  We are in a 60 days window before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year.  Intelligence reported by many gov't officials and new media indicate the desire by OBL to launch an attack with the intent to disrupt/alter the results of our elections just like what happened in Spain.  This window not only includes the US but also allies of the United States or supported the war in Iraq.  According to Tom Ridge, Threat reporting over the last several months has been "consistent, general and credible" and indicated the al-Qaida network is trying to push ahead with its plans. 
9/8/04 A tip through DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC (see #4 Attack Methods below)

Secondary window: (9/2/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.

2. Attack Indicators
9/10/04 Ayman al-Zawahri, released a video tape yesterday (9/9/04). This is significant in that in at least 5 out of the last 10 messages from Zawahri an attack has occurred. MSNBC reported the 5 attack occurrences:
* On Aug. 6, 1998, al-Zawahri sent a statement to a London-based Arabic newspaper saying, "We are interested in briefly telling the Americans that their messages have been received and that the response, which we hope they will read carefully, is being readied."
The next day, suicide bombers detonated bombs at the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, killing more than 220 people.  Al-Qaida later claimed responsibility for the attacks.

* On Oct. 9, 2002, an al-Zawahri tape threatened attacks on the United States, its economy and its allies. "I promise you that the Islamic youth are preparing for you what will fill your hearts with horror," al-Zawahri said.
Three days later, bombs destroyed a Bali nightclub, killing more than 200 people, mostly Westerners. Officials in the United States, Australia — which lost many of its citizens in the attack — and Indonesia later said al-Qaida had financed the attack.

The other attacks that closely followed a statement by al-Zawahri are:

* A suicide bombing of the USS Cole in Aden harbor in Yemen on Oct. 12, 2000, which killed 17 U.S. sailors. The attack occurred three weeks after the release of a tape in which al-Zawahri, bin Laden and Rifai Taha of the Egyptian Islamic Group warned of imminent attacks.
At the end of the tape, al-Zawahri warned: "Enough of words. It is time to take action against the iniquitous and faithless force which has spread troops through Egypt, Yemen and Saudi Arabia."
* A suicide bombing of a bus carrying French naval experts in Karachi, Pakistan, on May 8, 2002, which killed 14 people. It took place three weeks after the release of a videotape in which al-Zawahri and bin Laden were seen speaking along a river in Afghanistan. Also seen on the tape were "martyr's wills" of previous suicide bombers.
* A suicide bombing attack on German peacekeepers in Kabul, Afghanistan, on June 7, 2003, which killed four and wounded 31. The assault came two weeks after an audiotape attributed to al-Zawahri aired on various radio and television outlets in the Middle East. 
On the tape, al-Zawahri told Muslims to "burn the ground under their feet, as they should not enjoy your protection. … Expel those criminals out of your country." He concluded by promising, "The coming days will bring to you news that will heal your hearts."

In addition to those attacks, Zawahri was heard on a Sept. 29, 2003 audiotape calling Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf a "traitor" for helping U.S.-led forces topple the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, for considering a U.S. request to send peacekeeping troops to Iraq and for weighing diplomatic recognition of Israel. On Dec. 14 and again on Dec. 25, assassins believed to have been affiliated with al-Qaida attempted to kill Musharraf as he drove in his motorcade, first in Rawalpindi and then in Islamabad.

One U.S. intelligence official also told NBC News that a call to arms from al-Zawahri that aired Dec.  19 was a key in the decision to raise the U.S. threat level assessment from “yellow” — or elevated — to “orange” — or high — two days later.

callmejoe and others are working on a more detailed analysis of messages to attacks to try to identify any patterns.

However, there are many who do not see this as the GO signal, citing that Zawahri has sent messages with OBL on the previous two anniversaries of 9/11. Secondly, there is still great expectation that the GO message will be from OBL himself. There has been nothing internally suggestive and so far the national alert status hasn’t been raised.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

9/10/04 Two Italian women aid workers are still held by terrorists.
Iraqi government officials have announced the capture of AQ terrorists operating with insurgents. US forces are being challenged along the Syrian border in their effort to prevent the infiltration of outside terrorists.

9/10/04 Italy remains on a heightened state of alert since it has been the target of numerous threats over the past couple of months.

9/10/04 Ongoing insurgent operations.

9/1/04  OBL is suspected to be under the protection of Paki tribes along the border of Afghanistan.  These tribal areas are fiercely defended.

9/9/04 Following specific terror warning, Israelis warned to cut short Sinai holidays without delay and refrain from traveling to Egyptian peninsula. DEBKAfile adds: Sinai used by al Qaeda and Zarqawi as smuggling route for terrorists moving between Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq.

9/7/04 Hamas leaders have reportedly fled their headquarters in Damascus for neighboring Lebanon in the wake of the double suicide-bombing in the Israeli city of Beersheba on Aug. 31.   Sixteen Israelis were killed in those the bombings of commuter buses. 

9/10/04 Indonesian police were warned about the bomb attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta in a mobile phone text message 45 minutes before the bomb exploded, Alexander Downer, the Australian foreign minister, said yesterday.
The message said a western embassy would be attacked unless Abu Bakar Bashir, the Islamic cleric being held on suspicion of involvement in terrorism, was released immediately. Bashir, alleged to be the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah, the group behind the Bali bombings, is due to be put on trial later this month.
9/9/04 Powerful car bomb targets Australian embassy in Jakarta, killing 11, injuring 170, including local staff and security guards. Blast, bigger than Marriott Hotel attack that killed 12, mangled steel embassy gates, wrecked facade and smashed windows of surrounding buildings. Indonesia police suspect Al Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiah. Timing believed connected to coming Australian election.
9/8/04  US State Dept. Warning - Indonesia will hold a presidential runoff election on September 20, 2004. Election-related violence is possible. Americans should avoid demonstrations and large gatherings, which could turn violent or cause unexpected traffic disruptions. The Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other similar terrorist groups might use these elections as opportune occasions to conduct attacks.

9/10/04 Australia's main political parties suspended election campaigning Friday following a terrorist attack on the country's embassy in Jakarta. The politicians want to avoid politicizing an outrage that underscores one of the biggest issues facing Australian voters today.

Saudi Arabia
9/8/04 Nothing hitting my radar screen. 

9/10/04 US and allies are threatening to bring sanctions against Iran due to their nuclear program.

9/9/04  Weapons-explosives cache similar to arsenal used by Beslan hostage-takers discovered Thursday in basement of St. Petersburg cinema. Like the school, cinema was closed for construction work.
9/9/04 Ten of the militants who seized a school in southern Russia and took about 1,200 hostages have been identified, security officials said Thursday, with six coming from Chechnya, where insurgents have been battling Kremlin forces for five years. The other four came from Ingushetia, a republic neighboring Chechnya that saw brazen coordinated attacks against police in June, in which 90 people were killed.
The presence of Ingush raiders could threaten to inflame long-standing tensions between them and ethnic Ossetians, who are the majority in the republic of North Ossetia where the school was seized.

9/8/04 President Putin has now announced that Russia is "prepared to launch preemptive strikes on terrorist bases anywhere in the world".  The immediate target is likely to be Chechnya. Prizes worth $10m are being offered by Russian security for leads for "neutralizing" Chechen rebel leaders Basayov and Maskhadov, accused of masterminding Beslen school siege.   However, Moscow cannot be blind to the fact that support is likely coming from Iran, a country Russia has been in bed with for many years.

9/8/04  Police arrested four men Tuesday under the Terrorism Act in the port city of Southampton.   The four, aged between 26 and 34, were being questioned, Hampshire police said. Police gave no further details about the men or what they were suspected of doing.

Central America
9/3/04  Reports are circulating that Al-Qaida may have an alliance with a violent Central American gang that has established a presence near the Texas-Mexico border.   Mara Salvatrucha, an El Salvador-based gang, has allegedly met with AQ and may attempt to infiltrate the U.S. border.   El Salvadoran officials have told American officials that they have verified that al-Qaida has been active in these gangs.

United States
9/8/04  It continues to be assumed that AQ has entered a pre-attack phase with the orders and blessing already issued by OBL.  Media is making it clear that we are still a target rich environment for attacks like that which occurred in Russia.  
More concerns about terrorist infiltration along the border with Mexico, particularly in view of AQ contacts with narco-terrorist organizations.  

4. Attack method.
9/10/04  As has been discussed on TM and other places, the method of choice of AQ are bombs - the bigger the better.  With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used.  9/11 and the recent attacks in Russia do indicate that AQ can think out of the box and adapt its tactics to the group actually carrying out the attack(s). 

9/4/04  An anonymous tipster recently warned federal authorities Al Qaeda plans to use fuel-laden trucks to blow up the Brooklyn Bridge, the Empire State Building and one of the tunnels to New Jersey between Sept. 24 and Oct. 10.

5. Personnel
9/8/04 Assistant Attorney General Christopher A. Wray of the Criminal Division, U.S. Attorney Kenneth L. Wainstein of the District of Columbia, and Michael J. Garcia, Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), today announced the arrest of three Michigan residents on charges of running an alien smuggling operation that illegally brought citizens from Iraq, Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries to the United States. Defendants Neeran "Nancy" Hakim Zaia, age 50, Basima "Linda" Sesi, 59, and Basil "Jack" Yousif Denha, 54, were arrested this morning in the Detroit area. The three defendants are Iraqi-born naturalized U.S. citizens and residents of Sterling Heights, a suburb of Detroit." 

6. Significant meetings canceled:
9/3/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
9/8/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Other potentially targeted sites include - the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco are also potential targeted buildings. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings. 
9/8/04 Private security and law-enforcement officials in New Jersey were also contacted after the federal agency received the tip that Osama bin Laden's terror group aimed to strike at two New York landmarks (Empire State Building and the Brookland Bridge) as well as either the Holland or Lincoln tunnel..

GENERAL: Security in the NYC and surrounding areas is very tight.

8. Military operations. 
9/10/04 Only 4 carrier groups deployed, 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 back in port and 4 under going maintenance.

8/31/04 The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.

9. Dept of Homeland Scty.
9/10/04 Ridge told The Associated Press that information gleaned from "credible sources" suggests al-Qaida is keen to launch an attack within the United States between now and the inauguration in January.
Ridge said al-Qaida's intent is to "disrupt the democratic process." And he said that while that could be interpreted as meaning any time the business of the nation takes place, he said "most people think in terms of either the election or the inaugural."
Ridge said his people aren't obsessed with dates. Indeed, interrogations and terrorist chatter had earlier mentioned August or September as possible target dates.

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/9/04 At least five Western and Midwestern governors received envelopes in the mail rigged to ignite when opened today. In Montana, the envelope prompted the evacuation of part of the state Capitol. The envelopes, rigged with matches set to ignite when opened, were sent to the governors of Montana, Idaho, Nebraska, Washington and Utah. There were no reports of injuries.
All the letters appeared to have come from a maximum security prison in Nevada.
Glen Whorton, assistant director for the Nevada Corrections Department, said another letter also turned up at office of the state corrections director.

9/9/04 McALLEN, Texas McAllen police have alerted federal homeland security officials after the arrest of Massachusetts man 18-year-old Atbin Hoshang Forgotten of Canton, Massachusetts, on a burglary charge. K-R-G-V T-V in Weslaco reports police say their suspect is of Arabic descent and had just arrived in McAllen after a bus trip from Boston.
McAllen TX has had another suspicious incident this year
"Farida Goolam Mahamed Ahmed was arrested July 19th at McAllen-Miller International Airport as she tried to board a plane for New York"
In the words of another TMr (sorry, I forgot to clip the originator):
Folks, I'm a Texan, and McAllen is a fairly small, "middle-of-nowhere" type of town. You don't go to McAllen for the scenery. Strange coincidence for these two incidents to be happening there.

3,040 posted on 09/10/2004 6:38:08 PM PDT by Godzilla (9/11 - Never Forget, Never Forgive)
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