Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Eighteen

BBC ^ | 8/25/04

[nwctwx]

Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

Thread Eighteen

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The Threat Matrix

The title refers to a daily report given to the president of the United States detailing the most serious terrorist threats against the country. To tackle those threats, the government has formed a top-notch task force to infiltrate the terror cells and cut off the danger.

"Every morning, the president receives a list of the top ten terrorist threats - this list is known as the threat matrix."

We here at FR are trying to be in conjunction with the daily reports around the world that involve threats. We try to provide a storehouse of information that takes hours of research.

YOU be the Judge and get informed.

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"I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat."

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Link to Thread Seventeen	Terror-Alert.com "Code Red Implications: Code Red - Stay Home and Await Word." From Tm'er and Freeper ~MamaDearest~	Cindy's Links of Interest
Threat Matrix "TM'er" Tips		ExSoldier's Invaluable Tips
TM Code of Conduct		Godzilla's Summaries
"TM's 'Be on the Lookout"		nwctwx's Highlighted Links

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High alert after Russia jet crash

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the state security services, the FSB, to probe a plane crash, and another missing plane.

One plane with 42 people on board went down in the Tula region south of the capital, Moscow.

Meanwhile, air controllers say they lost contact with a second plane with 44 passengers on board, near the southern city of Rostov-on-Don.

[JellyJam]

Just had to share this!

[Rushmore Rocks]

"First Base?"

HaHa.......no, but I was breathing hard.

Guess that didn't come across as I intended. Should have said ageing, I think.

[4thygipper]

COLCHESTER, Conn. -- St. Mary's Ukrainian Church on Route 16, also known as Linwood Ave., was flattened by the explosion just before 7 a.m., according to state police. (snip)

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ct--churchexplosion0910sep10,0,4682084.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

[null and void]

Cross dressing terrorists are the latest security threat

OooooooKAY!

[Labyrinthos]

Very funny. Would make a nice tee-shirt.

[Godzilla]

I'll submit my hypothesis for "peer review" after I sleep on it (if I don't first figure out where I went wrong). But I thought I'd throw it out there beforehand.

ping me when you do!

[Godzilla]

I didn't know you were a geologist. That is quite an admirable profession. I would say your views hold a considerable amount of weight.

We can be mighty dense. Get three of us together in a room and you'll get five opinions. All I can say for certain is that the reason we have gravity is because the earth sucks.

[liberallyconservative]

'Zilla, I know you have done some awesome summaries in the past, so I have an extra special personal request of you: can you please update me on what all has happened in the last 3 days?

I've been completely off-line since Tues. night due to yet another sinus surgery (wasn't planned, but kinda had to be done, and I've been "dopey" ever since...)

Any body else want to put in their 2 cents, It'd be much appreciated.

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Wouldn't it be something after all the way we've stuck our neck out for Israel that they, being they were caught spying on us here more than once, ally with our enemies? We truly then are screwed!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
You are right Piper. We live in strange times.

[flutters]

From Columbus, Ohio:

9 Arrested In Fake Documents Raids

State Worker Contracts Potentially Fatal Disease (Legionnaires Disease)

[Godzilla]

Great link!

[Godzilla]

Because of the up-tick in activity since my last summary, I'm working to pull together another summary for posting later today.

[liberallyconservative]

Thank you. I will be looking for it.

[MamaDearest]

I don't allow you to post here, you post here because you want to (and you know that). You also don't post here when you don't want to. No one gets rid of anyone at TM except for JR who bans them with cause (of his determination). You know full well that those of you who wish to post here can do so at any time and those who are angry and have issues with other TMers and who do not post here, cease to post of their own choosing. No one chases them away. If you want to see someone unbanned, I would think JR would be the person you want to address. I am only stating that events occurred that caused the problem and that if someone wanted to be unbanned, one would think they would take it up with the people responsible for banning them. I will not comment further on this issue.

[flutters]

I imagine this has already been posted...

Five U.S. Governors Get Booby-Trapped Mail

[Labyrinthos]

I am concerned, however, that the more GWB solidifies his lead, the greater the likelihood that AQ will lunch a major attack here on the home front to disrupt the election. If the polls are close, then AQ runs the risk that an attack would cause voters to rally around the President, rather than abandoning the President for failing to keep us safe. If GWB has a landslide type lead, then AQ has nothing to lose by attacking now. At worse (for AQ), Americans rally around a President who was about to win by a landslide anyway; at best (for AQ), the attack convinces voters to abandon the President for the Ketchup Boy.

[callmejoe]

CNN International reporting that unnamed officials have unconfirmed reports new UBL video to be released soon officially declaring European truce over.

Wasn't there some earlier basis for speculating that the next series of attacks that end in America would start in Europe?

Reports also said the UBL video to be released immediately *after* coming attacks? The operation would then not just be *initiated* by a Zawahiri statement, but *bracketed* between a Zawahiri and a UBL statement.

*If* all this is so, the attack is imminent (hours or days)

(*Please* read disclaimer below lest I be misunderstood)

*This all depends on the reliability of each of these three assertions (UBL tape/video release, Europe first, attack precedes UBL tape/video)*

I'm not in a position to assess these three assertions.

[flutters]

http://www.nbc4i.com/news/3721420/detail.html

Powell Says Bin Laden Is Alive But On The Run

POSTED: 12:39 pm EDT September 10, 2004
UPDATED: 1:11 pm EDT September 10, 2004

WASHINGTON -- Secretary of State Colin Powell says he believes Osama bin Laden is on the run.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Powell says he has no evidence to back up his claim the al-Qaida leader is alive -- but he thinks bin Laden is still in hiding.

He says bin Laden "is not showing himself in a way that he can be captured." His comments come the day before the third anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

He also said while the United States has taken out al-Qaida's most experienced and accomplished leaders, the terror network still has "the capacity to regenerate itself."

CIA Thinks Al-Qaida Tape Was Authentic
The CIA said it's confident a tape showing al-Qaida's second-in-command is authentic.

In the tape, Ayman al-Zawahri said the United States will be defeated in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The tape was aired Thursday on the Arab television station Al-Jazeera. It's the second time in two years the terror network has released a video near the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

U.S. officials are also investigating what message the video might be seeking to convey -- and whether the videotape includes an older audio tape, now joined with images.

National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said the tape is further evidence the terror group remains a substantial threat to the United States.

Rice said she's not surprised about the timing of the release. She said al-Qaida released a video about this time last year as well.

She said it shows "they are still a very dangerous organization."

[callmejoe]

This is a draft timeline. I thought I'd post what I have now (even though I still need to research some final details) rather than waiting until tonight as I have to run some errands and get caught up before the day is over.

The "hypothesis" is that every single Zawahiri-related communications to this point has some correlation to either an attempted or successful major attack.

08/06/1998 Next day over 200 killed and thousands injured in Kenya and Tanzania

09/20/2000 Three weeks later the USS Cole is attacked

10/04/2001 Congressional and media Anthrax attacks unfolding (2nd wave of 9/11)

10/07/2001 Rockaway crash six weeks later; retaliation for Afghanistan threatened

11/07/2001 Two days after "Dawn" nuclear retaliatory threat - - "Dragonfire" scare

04/17/2002 Three weeks later 14 die in Karachi bombing targeting French officers

10/09/2002 Three days later more than 200 people die in the Bali nightclub bombing

05/23/2003 Two weeks later 4 killed 31 wounded in Kabul attack on German peacekeepers

08/03/2003 Two days later the Jakarta Marriott is bombed

09/10/2003 female Iraqi Governing Council member Hashimi assassinated on 9/20
(attempted UN car bombing on 9/22 as follow-up to devastating 8/19 UN bombing)

09/29/2003 Eleven weeks after this specific threat to kill him, two attempts against Musharraf; 10/5 Haifa bombing pinned on Hamas kills 19 and leads to first Israeli strike on Syrian territory (besides early 80s air battle) in three decades with prospect of regional war

12/19/2003? Two days later, America goes to "orange alert"

02/2?/2004 Three weeks later the Madrid bombing is worst terror attack on Europe

03/25/2004 Ten days later the first coordinated nationwide Iraqi uprising begins

06/11/2004 One month later, an operation against NYC/NJ/DC targets is detected

9/9/2004 Attempted attack likely in days or weeks

Last August/September marked the beginning of a "fall offensive" in Iraq.
March/April saw a global "spring offensive" with Madrid (3/11), Ashdod in Israel (3/14) which would have been the deadliest attack in Israeli history if it had worked and led to the assassination of Yassin, the leader of Hamas, and the Iraqi Sadr national uprising (4/4) - - all within little more than three weeks.

This may be the beginning of a global fall offensive - - Russia (plane downings and Beslan), Iraq (week of escalating national violence), Afghanistan (escalating over next four weeks as we head to the Presidential election), Israel (Beersheba bus attack has not yet seen the Israeli response), Europe (coming attacks as truce has long expired), and finally America (intended WMD attacks to surpass 9/11 and meet rhetorical Islamist expectations built over a year).