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Terrorism Summary 9/10/04

Tomorrow we remember the third annversary of the terrorist strike on our country and the 3000 who died that day. Let us never forget how our world changed that day, and let us never allow those with “short term memory” from forgetting either . Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
9/10/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04

1. Attack threat windows
9/8/04 Primary Window: Between now and November 2nd. No change since 8/16/04. We are in a 60 days window before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year. Intelligence reported by many gov't officials and new media indicate the desire by OBL to launch an attack with the intent to disrupt/alter the results of our elections just like what happened in Spain. This window not only includes the US but also allies of the United States or supported the war in Iraq. According to Tom Ridge, Threat reporting over the last several months has been "consistent, general and credible" and indicated the al-Qaida network is trying to push ahead with its plans.
9/8/04 A tip through DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC (see #4 Attack Methods below)

Secondary window: (9/2/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.

2. Attack Indicators
9/10/04 Ayman al-Zawahri, released a video tape yesterday (9/9/04). This is significant in that in at least 5 out of the last 10 messages from Zawahri an attack has occurred. MSNBC reported the 5 attack occurrences:
* On Aug. 6, 1998, al-Zawahri sent a statement to a London-based Arabic newspaper saying, "We are interested in briefly telling the Americans that their messages have been received and that the response, which we hope they will read carefully, is being readied."
The next day, suicide bombers detonated bombs at the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, killing more than 220 people. Al-Qaida later claimed responsibility for the attacks.

* On Oct. 9, 2002, an al-Zawahri tape threatened attacks on the United States, its economy and its allies. "I promise you that the Islamic youth are preparing for you what will fill your hearts with horror," al-Zawahri said.
Three days later, bombs destroyed a Bali nightclub, killing more than 200 people, mostly Westerners. Officials in the United States, Australia — which lost many of its citizens in the attack — and Indonesia later said al-Qaida had financed the attack.

The other attacks that closely followed a statement by al-Zawahri are:

* A suicide bombing of the USS Cole in Aden harbor in Yemen on Oct. 12, 2000, which killed 17 U.S. sailors. The attack occurred three weeks after the release of a tape in which al-Zawahri, bin Laden and Rifai Taha of the Egyptian Islamic Group warned of imminent attacks.
At the end of the tape, al-Zawahri warned: "Enough of words. It is time to take action against the iniquitous and faithless force which has spread troops through Egypt, Yemen and Saudi Arabia."
* A suicide bombing of a bus carrying French naval experts in Karachi, Pakistan, on May 8, 2002, which killed 14 people. It took place three weeks after the release of a videotape in which al-Zawahri and bin Laden were seen speaking along a river in Afghanistan. Also seen on the tape were "martyr's wills" of previous suicide bombers.
* A suicide bombing attack on German peacekeepers in Kabul, Afghanistan, on June 7, 2003, which killed four and wounded 31. The assault came two weeks after an audiotape attributed to al-Zawahri aired on various radio and television outlets in the Middle East.
On the tape, al-Zawahri told Muslims to "burn the ground under their feet, as they should not enjoy your protection. … Expel those criminals out of your country." He concluded by promising, "The coming days will bring to you news that will heal your hearts."

In addition to those attacks, Zawahri was heard on a Sept. 29, 2003 audiotape calling Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf a "traitor" for helping U.S.-led forces topple the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, for considering a U.S. request to send peacekeeping troops to Iraq and for weighing diplomatic recognition of Israel. On Dec. 14 and again on Dec. 25, assassins believed to have been affiliated with al-Qaida attempted to kill Musharraf as he drove in his motorcade, first in Rawalpindi and then in Islamabad.

One U.S. intelligence official also told NBC News that a call to arms from al-Zawahri that aired Dec. 19 was a key in the decision to raise the U.S. threat level assessment from “yellow” — or elevated — to “orange” — or high — two days later.

callmejoe and others are working on a more detailed analysis of messages to attacks to try to identify any patterns.

However, there are many who do not see this as the GO signal, citing that Zawahri has sent messages with OBL on the previous two anniversaries of 9/11. Secondly, there is still great expectation that the GO message will be from OBL himself. There has been nothing internally suggestive and so far the national alert status hasn’t been raised.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

Iraq
9/10/04 Two Italian women aid workers are still held by terrorists.
Iraqi government officials have announced the capture of AQ terrorists operating with insurgents. US forces are being challenged along the Syrian border in their effort to prevent the infiltration of outside terrorists.

Italy
9/10/04 Italy remains on a heightened state of alert since it has been the target of numerous threats over the past couple of months.

Afghanistan
9/10/04 Ongoing insurgent operations.

Pakistan
9/1/04 OBL is suspected to be under the protection of Paki tribes along the border of Afghanistan. These tribal areas are fiercely defended.

Israel
9/9/04 Following specific terror warning, Israelis warned to cut short Sinai holidays without delay and refrain from traveling to Egyptian peninsula. DEBKAfile adds: Sinai used by al Qaeda and Zarqawi as smuggling route for terrorists moving between Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq.

Syria/Lebanon
9/7/04 Hamas leaders have reportedly fled their headquarters in Damascus for neighboring Lebanon in the wake of the double suicide-bombing in the Israeli city of Beersheba on Aug. 31. Sixteen Israelis were killed in those the bombings of commuter buses.

Indonesia
9/10/04 Indonesian police were warned about the bomb attack on the Australian embassy in Jakarta in a mobile phone text message 45 minutes before the bomb exploded, Alexander Downer, the Australian foreign minister, said yesterday.
The message said a western embassy would be attacked unless Abu Bakar Bashir, the Islamic cleric being held on suspicion of involvement in terrorism, was released immediately. Bashir, alleged to be the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiyah, the group behind the Bali bombings, is due to be put on trial later this month.
9/9/04 Powerful car bomb targets Australian embassy in Jakarta, killing 11, injuring 170, including local staff and security guards. Blast, bigger than Marriott Hotel attack that killed 12, mangled steel embassy gates, wrecked facade and smashed windows of surrounding buildings. Indonesia police suspect Al Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiah. Timing believed connected to coming Australian election.
9/8/04 US State Dept. Warning - Indonesia will hold a presidential runoff election on September 20, 2004. Election-related violence is possible. Americans should avoid demonstrations and large gatherings, which could turn violent or cause unexpected traffic disruptions. The Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other similar terrorist groups might use these elections as opportune occasions to conduct attacks.

Australia
9/10/04 Australia's main political parties suspended election campaigning Friday following a terrorist attack on the country's embassy in Jakarta. The politicians want to avoid politicizing an outrage that underscores one of the biggest issues facing Australian voters today.

Saudi Arabia
9/8/04 Nothing hitting my radar screen.

Iran
9/10/04 US and allies are threatening to bring sanctions against Iran due to their nuclear program.

Russia
9/9/04 Weapons-explosives cache similar to arsenal used by Beslan hostage-takers discovered Thursday in basement of St. Petersburg cinema. Like the school, cinema was closed for construction work.
9/9/04 Ten of the militants who seized a school in southern Russia and took about 1,200 hostages have been identified, security officials said Thursday, with six coming from Chechnya, where insurgents have been battling Kremlin forces for five years. The other four came from Ingushetia, a republic neighboring Chechnya that saw brazen coordinated attacks against police in June, in which 90 people were killed.
The presence of Ingush raiders could threaten to inflame long-standing tensions between them and ethnic Ossetians, who are the majority in the republic of North Ossetia where the school was seized.

9/8/04 President Putin has now announced that Russia is "prepared to launch preemptive strikes on terrorist bases anywhere in the world". The immediate target is likely to be Chechnya. Prizes worth $10m are being offered by Russian security for leads for "neutralizing" Chechen rebel leaders Basayov and Maskhadov, accused of masterminding Beslen school siege. However, Moscow cannot be blind to the fact that support is likely coming from Iran, a country Russia has been in bed with for many years.

England
9/8/04 Police arrested four men Tuesday under the Terrorism Act in the port city of Southampton. The four, aged between 26 and 34, were being questioned, Hampshire police said. Police gave no further details about the men or what they were suspected of doing.

Central America
9/3/04 Reports are circulating that Al-Qaida may have an alliance with a violent Central American gang that has established a presence near the Texas-Mexico border. Mara Salvatrucha, an El Salvador-based gang, has allegedly met with AQ and may attempt to infiltrate the U.S. border. El Salvadoran officials have told American officials that they have verified that al-Qaida has been active in these gangs.

United States
9/8/04 It continues to be assumed that AQ has entered a pre-attack phase with the orders and blessing already issued by OBL. Media is making it clear that we are still a target rich environment for attacks like that which occurred in Russia.
More concerns about terrorist infiltration along the border with Mexico, particularly in view of AQ contacts with narco-terrorist organizations.

4. Attack method.
9/10/04 As has been discussed on TM and other places, the method of choice of AQ are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. 9/11 and the recent attacks in Russia do indicate that AQ can think out of the box and adapt its tactics to the group actually carrying out the attack(s).

9/4/04 An anonymous tipster recently warned federal authorities Al Qaeda plans to use fuel-laden trucks to blow up the Brooklyn Bridge, the Empire State Building and one of the tunnels to New Jersey between Sept. 24 and Oct. 10.

5. Personnel
9/8/04 Assistant Attorney General Christopher A. Wray of the Criminal Division, U.S. Attorney Kenneth L. Wainstein of the District of Columbia, and Michael J. Garcia, Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), today announced the arrest of three Michigan residents on charges of running an alien smuggling operation that illegally brought citizens from Iraq, Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries to the United States. Defendants Neeran "Nancy" Hakim Zaia, age 50, Basima "Linda" Sesi, 59, and Basil "Jack" Yousif Denha, 54, were arrested this morning in the Detroit area. The three defendants are Iraqi-born naturalized U.S. citizens and residents of Sterling Heights, a suburb of Detroit."

6. Significant meetings canceled:
9/3/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
9/8/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Other potentially targeted sites include - the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco are also potential targeted buildings. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings.
9/8/04 Private security and law-enforcement officials in New Jersey were also contacted after the federal agency received the tip that Osama bin Laden's terror group aimed to strike at two New York landmarks (Empire State Building and the Brookland Bridge) as well as either the Holland or Lincoln tunnel..

GENERAL: Security in the NYC and surrounding areas is very tight.

8. Military operations.
9/10/04 Only 4 carrier groups deployed, 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 back in port and 4 under going maintenance.

8/31/04 The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.

9. Dept of Homeland Scty.
9/10/04 Ridge told The Associated Press that information gleaned from "credible sources" suggests al-Qaida is keen to launch an attack within the United States between now and the inauguration in January.
Ridge said al-Qaida's intent is to "disrupt the democratic process." And he said that while that could be interpreted as meaning any time the business of the nation takes place, he said "most people think in terms of either the election or the inaugural."
Ridge said his people aren't obsessed with dates. Indeed, interrogations and terrorist chatter had earlier mentioned August or September as possible target dates.

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/9/04 At least five Western and Midwestern governors received envelopes in the mail rigged to ignite when opened today. In Montana, the envelope prompted the evacuation of part of the state Capitol. The envelopes, rigged with matches set to ignite when opened, were sent to the governors of Montana, Idaho, Nebraska, Washington and Utah. There were no reports of injuries.
All the letters appeared to have come from a maximum security prison in Nevada.
Glen Whorton, assistant director for the Nevada Corrections Department, said another letter also turned up at office of the state corrections director.

9/9/04 McALLEN, Texas McAllen police have alerted federal homeland security officials after the arrest of Massachusetts man 18-year-old Atbin Hoshang Forgotten of Canton, Massachusetts, on a burglary charge. K-R-G-V T-V in Weslaco reports police say their suspect is of Arabic descent and had just arrived in McAllen after a bus trip from Boston.
McAllen TX has had another suspicious incident this year
"Farida Goolam Mahamed Ahmed was arrested July 19th at McAllen-Miller International Airport as she tried to board a plane for New York"
In the words of another TMr (sorry, I forgot to clip the originator):
Folks, I'm a Texan, and McAllen is a fairly small, "middle-of-nowhere" type of town. You don't go to McAllen for the scenery. Strange coincidence for these two incidents to be happening there.