New Poll out of CO - 47-47 Tie -(SUSA) -

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[POA2]

New SUSA poll shows CO a dead heat - 47-47 - (this is not good - another 2000 GWB State that is heading toward the toss-up catagory) -

Also new poll out of NV shows GWB up 49-46 -

And 2 other polls out of MI and PA that both show Kerry up by 4pts or more -

MI poll is 46-42 for Kerry (Strategic Vision)

PA poll shows Kerry 47-42 (Quinn) - PA has to now be considered solid Kerry - He has lead in the past 11 straight polls and in 20 of the past 22 polls out of PA -

This is getting late - GWB has to make a move now - an incumbent will not surge late and win - (past Sept 15th)

All these polls can be found on realclearpolitics site .

[comebacknewt]

Looks like a dead heat to me. I'm living on pins and needles. Hope we get a bounce from the convnetion.

One month ago, if you had told me W would be in a dead heat with Kerry immediately after the RAT convention, I would have been thrilled. We still get our shot.

If we still trail in mid to late September, then it is time to get very concerned.

[POA2]

Uh....when the interest rates go up, it's to stop INFLATION, not recession. That means the economy is strong

There is NO INFLATION - (any movement has been do to rising energy costs!! - and interest rates have no effect on those!) - Productivity has kept inflation in check for the past 10 years! -

Greenspan has been the common denominator of the past 2 recessions with his foolish interest rate hikes!! In both 1991 and in 2000! ( he raised rates 9 and 12 times during both!!) -

A growing economy does not need interest rates rising! - Reagan and the 1980's proved this!

[ultima ratio]

These state polls are full of it. All the polls had Coors neck-and-neck with his opponent a few days before the primary--but he won by 22pts. Besides, CO showed the same closeness in 2000--but W won comfortably.

[Sir_Humphrey]

For the record, there is no way in hell I'd vote for Kerry or any other Dem for president.

I wish I could share your optimism. Bush is in serious trouble and President Kerry is a probability unless we all do some serious get out the vote work. (Especially on election day)

After 9-11 I was very suspicious of all this "unity" talk. I trust libs as far as I can throw them and getting them to do more than give sanctimonious speeches was beyond their self centered being. When the rubber hit the road and sacrifices needed to be made they reverted back to their opportunistic ways. They would rather scare the people (especially the young) into voting for them than actually fighting Islamo-Fascism because that would involve asking people to make difficult choices. Liberals never want to face reality and make difficult choices.

Conservatives need a kick in the pants. Bush has a tough but necessary message to sell and we have got to be the ones to get the message out. Unfortunately I don't see the commitment to Bush (or against Kerry) like the Dems have against Bush.

[ZULU]

Precisely.

Greenscam created the recession which killed Bush I.

I think he's a stealth Democrat.

[wireman]

Let me get this straight...you know more about the economy than Mr. Greenspan and more about politics than Mr. Rove.

What are you doing wasting your time hand-wringing here? You belong on the national stage!

[comebacknewt]

CO polls also showed Allard losing by a 6-7 points to Strickland. How did that one turn out?

[Ravi]

Bush has opened up a 3 point lead in Nevada. Kerry was up 4 in the last Survey USA poll done 25 days ago. So in one poll, there has been a surge for Bush of 7 points in Nevada. That's good news.

In Georgia, Bush has opened up a 14 point lead in the strategic vision poll. That too is up from 11 points in the same pol. Again, our direction - good news. BTW, Isaakson is ahead 51 to 37 over Majette in same poll

In Wisconsin, it's tied 46 to 46 in strategic vision with nader included. Without Nader, it's Kerry 47 to Bush 46. That is an improvement of 2 points from two weeks ago in the same poll. Again trend in our direction.

Michigan is in striking distance now with Kerry up only 4 and our convention left.

Same colorado survey usa poll with bush and kerry tied shows Coors up one 48 to 47. That makes no sense - why would Coors have a higher poll number than Bush.

[blanknoone]

Re: DWI charge. The dems were behind it, specifically D operative Chris Lehane.

[VRWC_minion]

http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html

[POA2]

Precisely. Greenscam created the recession which killed Bush I. I think he's a stealth Democrat.

Agree - and I don't know Greenspan's politics - if he is either REP or DEM - but I do know he is an old-school inflation bogey man type econ thinker - and time has passed him by! - GWB should not have reappointed him -

[gswilder]

The state polls lag events and news by 3-4 weeks from what I have seen this year. So all of these are reflecting what little bounce Kerry got in July. Things do seem to being going Bush's way, but unfortunately, most of the polls are nowing showing signs of that. I think again that basically we are split 45-45 and that is hard core. The other 10% will determine the winner. As has been stated, msot undecideds break for the incumbant. But I think things have changed post 9-11. In the end, when people actually have to pull the lever, they are going to have to decide the future security of our country. I still believe Bush will win by a safe margin when all is said and done. And that is if there is no major gaff my Kerry or OBL is caught or another terrorist attack. And I do fell that Kerry is going to make a major public blunder before November; maybe in the debates.

[ilgipper]

We are between conventions, and the score is still tied. Kerry has made some progress in some of the state races. If they don't move back in the right direction after the GOP convention, then there might be reason for concern. Right now, my only concern is the number of people who have let the media war against Bush on Iraq/economy affect their opinions. The GOP has done a piss poor job since the 1st of the year with their message. Public opinion has been established by the opposition. Hopefully the convention will change that.

[POA2]

Same colorado survey usa poll with bush and kerry tied shows Coors up one 48 to 47. That makes no sense - why would Coors have a higher poll number than Bush.

Because Coors is a local type guy who people of CO probably like personally - Why does SD have two DEM Senators yet vote for GWB by 20pts???

[mware]

It could be worse you could live in New Jersey.

[concerned about politics]

Re: being suicidal. I don't know if I would go that far. But I will be very afraid for the future of our country. I will also be fearful of curtailments of free speech.

During the '90's, we were threatened with hate speech legislation if we disagreed with any of the members of the socialist revolution. Thank God their leader was impeached and disgraced.

[mondoman]

I gotta tell you, the GOP campaign here in Colorado does NOT impress me. I attended the GOP State Convention, signed up as a volunteer and the only contact I received was the standard President and First Lady photographic and ersatz signature thanking me for being a grassroots volunteer, and that was received in May.

No contact from the GOP since then. Zip. Nada. Nothing.

Moderate-to-right leaning talk show hosts like KHOW's Peter Boyles and even libertarians like Scott Redman, are coming out talking like they dislike Bush enough to support Kerry. Not good. Republican PR staffers on the air sound like political hacks.

While she was on the air, Enid Goldstein (liberal talk show host) was constantly announcing Democrat events, protests, rallies, mailing parties, etc. We are not going to win Senate and Congressional Seats, and maybe even lose the White House, unless the dedicated are mobilized to identify and persuade the Undecideds by all means possible.

Someone in the Campaign had better wake up soon.

mm

[WoodstockCat]

Your argument on the 24-hour news cycle would then seem to play to Bush who still has his convention and the debates to go.
I think it is much easier to make the argument that numbers like this would be more worrisome without the 24-hour news cycle.
It's just not logical to look at numbers when one party has had it's one week TV commercial and the other has not.
The debates are going to define Kerry as someone unable to take a position and keep it.
Watch him give three seperate answers in each of the debates to the same question.
Also read the Kerry spot stuff about Republican turnout and it's undercount in Colorado.
Polls are based on turnout models and I really believe that most major pollers are still using a 2000 model and not a 2002 model.
Things changed on 9/11, Don't believe the MSM hype.

[ultima ratio]

Read my post on yesterday's Gallup report which shows Bush momentum. He has narrowed the gap in the swing states and is comfortably ahead in all the red states he took in 2000. Much of this worry is needless. Kerry just hired a new team of strategists. If he were doing fine--why would he do this at this point and risk all the attendant confusion? One of the guys is supposedly an expert on developing grass roots support--which seems a little late to address in a presidential election. Bush has been developing the grass roots for four years--ever since the FL fiasco. I expect a Bush win by 57%.

[WOSG]

You are right on this ... and it is worrisome ... we need to come back strong on the economy ... the ECONOMY IS DOING GREAT:

We also need to defeat the *ideas* and *notions* of the other side -
1) Bush was and is honest on Iraq and on everything he is doing
2) The War in Iraq was the right thing to do
3) WE ARE WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR.
4) Kerry is the wrong man for leading the nation.

These notions need to be out there ... we need more letters to the editor, more media pushing on these issues ...

"We are in the 3rd year of growth - The economy has grown every qtr since the GWB tax cuts were implemented - That being the 3rd Qtr of 2001 - We are seeing growth rates not seen in over 20 years with regard to many economic indicators! - YET, the DEM's set the premise on the economy with the American public that the economy is "bad" - and from OCT 2003 until (now pretty much) we have had no coherent response on the success of the economy out of our side -"

Very true.

BUSH SHOULD WIN BY 8 POINTS OR MORE... THE POLLS SHOULD BE REFLECTING IT ALREADY.