Read my post on yesterday's Gallup report which shows Bush momentum. He has narrowed the gap in the swing states and is comfortably ahead in all the red states he took in 2000. Much of this worry is needless. Kerry just hired a new team of strategists. If he were doing fine--why would he do this at this point and risk all the attendant confusion? One of the guys is supposedly an expert on developing grass roots support--which seems a little late to address in a presidential election. Bush has been developing the grass roots for four years--ever since the FL fiasco. I expect a Bush win by 57%.
I'd like the outcome in your world. I think the best thing to keep in mind is that not all polls identify likely voters, which is key if the goal is to try to predict the outcome. Gallup can be good at calculating likely voters, although in the most recent all they reported were registered voters.
And like it or not, people lie about whether they vote. Remember Bennifer in 2000? He was huffing and puffing about algore and then it came that he could not show that he had ever voted in an election (which is great for us).