Posted on 08/09/2004 7:34:59 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 97.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 94.5 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 71.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 63.8 | 6 | 0 |
California | 9.0 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 82.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 5.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 14.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 53.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 95.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 94.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 38.4 | 0 | 7 |
Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 92.0 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 83.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 27.0 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 15.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 30.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 33.3 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 57.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 52.0 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 38.0 | 0 | 4 |
New Jersey | 13.4 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 27.0 | 0 | 5 |
New York | 7.0 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 77.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 55.2 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 96.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 36.5 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 32.0 | 0 | 21 |
Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 96.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 68.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 83.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 25.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 52.0 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 42.0 | 0 | 10 |
Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 274 | 264 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 265.17 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
as before, it all comes down to FL. MO, NV, WV and OH. Interestingly, if GWB loses in WV, it ends in a tie....
This is going to be a nail-biter.
What would be funny (although I hope it won't have to come to this), would be for Bush to win all the states he is predicted to win but lose either West Virginia or Nevada. That would result in a 269-269 tie and the Republican House would elect George W. Bush. That would really make the liberals mad. And it's not totally unlikely to happen. It very well could. However, I do hope that after the RNC, Bush will open up a large lead.
Sorry about repeating the exact same thing you said, I didn't see it.
great minds think alike....
i find it incredible that WV may well hold the key to the presidential election. what's scary, though, is that it is a D state which happened to go for GWB last round.
when the race comes down to 5 states, it is also incredible that issues which may strongly resonate in those states but not elsewhere may decide the race. for example, i am inclined to think that although WV is Dem., is there really a big constituency for gay "marriage" there? obviously cuba is a big issue in FL.
i'm sure there are other even more local issues in these battlegrounds, also. the more local an issue becomes, the harder it is to manage, also...and the less likely that the national ops are going to understand it.
whoever masters the local politics in these five states will win. most other states aren't in play, at all.
the corner has been turned!
...and we're not turning back!
I don't quite understand that weighted probability thing, but you're projecting Bush loses? What do the weighted probabilities say about Kerry?
Unfortunately, if you look at the internals of the most recent Florida poll, that's the real danger point. Kerry has turned a corner there, and we've got to turn him right back around again.
This thing hasn't budged in months and not only that, besides NH, its the same results of 2000. I find that hard to swallow. This election will not be that close again.
Might result in a tie. Maine doles out it's electoral votes by district -- it is possible for one person to get 3 and the other to get 1 in Maine. I think there may be one other state (nebraska?) that also does that with thier Electoral votes.
It is also possible for an Elector to "switch" his/her vote though extremely unlikely.
I wish I could share your confidence. The latest Florida poll internals do not look good for W at all. I'm thinking about voting absentee at home and going down there to do GOTV work.
Sounds like Canadian politics. The urban, ultra-liberal multicultural hell-holes tell the rest of the country how to live.
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