2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, August 9, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	97.0	9	0
Alaska	94.5	3	0
Arizona	71.0	10	0
Arkansas	63.8	6	0
California	9.0	0	55
Colorado	82.0	9	0
Connecticut	5.0	0	7
Delaware	14.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.9	0	3
Florida	53.0	27	0
Georgia	95.0	15	0
Hawaii	5.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	9.0	0	21
Indiana	94.0	11	0
Iowa	38.4	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	92.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	27.0	0	4
Maryland	15.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	30.0	0	17
Minnesota	33.3	0	10
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	57.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	52.0	5	0
New Hampshire	38.0	0	4
New Jersey	13.4	0	15
New Mexico	27.0	0	5
New York	7.0	0	31
North Carolina	77.0	15	0
North Dakota	96.0	3	0
Ohio	55.2	20	0
Oklahoma	96.0	7	0
Oregon	36.5	0	7
Pennsylvania	32.0	0	21
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	96.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	68.0	11	0
Texas	97.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	5.0	0	3
Virginia	83.0	13	0
Washington	25.0	0	11
West Virginia	52.0	5	0
Wisconsin	42.0	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		274	264

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 265.17 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[ConservativeDude]

as before, it all comes down to FL. MO, NV, WV and OH. Interestingly, if GWB loses in WV, it ends in a tie....

This is going to be a nail-biter.

[dmc8576]

What would be funny (although I hope it won't have to come to this), would be for Bush to win all the states he is predicted to win but lose either West Virginia or Nevada. That would result in a 269-269 tie and the Republican House would elect George W. Bush. That would really make the liberals mad. And it's not totally unlikely to happen. It very well could. However, I do hope that after the RNC, Bush will open up a large lead.

[dmc8576]

Sorry about repeating the exact same thing you said, I didn't see it.

[concerned about politics]

Your map shows why the electoral system is so important. If it weren't for that, a few states full of liberals packed together in their stinky nests like sewer rats would be choosing all our representatives for us. The middle states, the most of America, would have no say, and we'd be living in a liberal utopia - the U.S.S.A., or worse!

[ConservativeDude]

great minds think alike....

i find it incredible that WV may well hold the key to the presidential election. what's scary, though, is that it is a D state which happened to go for GWB last round.

when the race comes down to 5 states, it is also incredible that issues which may strongly resonate in those states but not elsewhere may decide the race. for example, i am inclined to think that although WV is Dem., is there really a big constituency for gay "marriage" there? obviously cuba is a big issue in FL.

i'm sure there are other even more local issues in these battlegrounds, also. the more local an issue becomes, the harder it is to manage, also...and the less likely that the national ops are going to understand it.

whoever masters the local politics in these five states will win. most other states aren't in play, at all.

[Optimist]

the corner has been turned!

[Momaw Nadon]

the corner has been turned!

...and we're not turning back!

[dmc8576]

I think you're right about WV. Cultural issues will put Bush over the top there. I am more worried about Nevada. I don't know how much the media overplays the whole Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Site issue. That could potentially bring Bush down, or so the media says. But who knows?

I am getting more and more confident about Ohio and Florida each day. I really think Bush will hold onto those states. I think NH is lost, but Wisconsin is a potential pickup. Other than that, I think the states should stay the way they were in 2000.

Bush just needs to take care of WV or Nevada (preferably both). If he loses both states, I think he loses the election. If he wins 1, he will probably win. And if he wins both, I am confident he will get reelected.

[rushmom]

I don't quite understand that weighted probability thing, but you're projecting Bush loses? What do the weighted probabilities say about Kerry?

[concerned about politics]

I can't help but feel President Bush will win comfortably. There's the queer issue, and evangelicals will be running to the polls. Only 1 in 4 usually vote, but the churches are really pushing the truth about the liberal agenda like never before. Add moms and dads to that number. It's their kids future!
Vet's owe Kerry a pay back for cutting their throats. He hurt a lot of fine soldiers.
Our military would freak if Kerry won.
Kerry wants to tax the investor class, that means 401K people will get hit with a tax increase, and a lot of people depend on that investment for their retirement.

[LandOfLincolnGOP]

Unfortunately, if you look at the internals of the most recent Florida poll, that's the real danger point. Kerry has turned a corner there, and we've got to turn him right back around again.

[Jedi Jake]

This thing hasn't budged in months and not only that, besides NH, its the same results of 2000. I find that hard to swallow. This election will not be that close again.

[commish]

That would result in a 269-269 tie

Might result in a tie. Maine doles out it's electoral votes by district -- it is possible for one person to get 3 and the other to get 1 in Maine. I think there may be one other state (nebraska?) that also does that with thier Electoral votes.

It is also possible for an Elector to "switch" his/her vote though extremely unlikely.

[LandOfLincolnGOP]

I am getting more and more confident about Ohio and Florida each day.

I wish I could share your confidence. The latest Florida poll internals do not look good for W at all. I'm thinking about voting absentee at home and going down there to do GOTV work.

[doc30]

Sounds like Canadian politics. The urban, ultra-liberal multicultural hell-holes tell the rest of the country how to live.