[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 265.17 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[dmc8576]

What would be funny (although I hope it won't have to come to this), would be for Bush to win all the states he is predicted to win but lose either West Virginia or Nevada. That would result in a 269-269 tie and the Republican House would elect George W. Bush. That would really make the liberals mad. And it's not totally unlikely to happen. It very well could. However, I do hope that after the RNC, Bush will open up a large lead.

[rushmom]

I don't quite understand that weighted probability thing, but you're projecting Bush loses? What do the weighted probabilities say about Kerry?

[concerned about politics]

I can't help but feel President Bush will win comfortably. There's the queer issue, and evangelicals will be running to the polls. Only 1 in 4 usually vote, but the churches are really pushing the truth about the liberal agenda like never before. Add moms and dads to that number. It's their kids future!
Vet's owe Kerry a pay back for cutting their throats. He hurt a lot of fine soldiers.
Our military would freak if Kerry won.
Kerry wants to tax the investor class, that means 401K people will get hit with a tax increase, and a lot of people depend on that investment for their retirement.

[no dems]

I appreciate your hard work on this project. I always look forward to these posts. Having said that, I think that Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon and Wisconsin are closer than the chart indicates. If Michigan and Oregon have the gay marriage issue on the ballot Nov. 2, which it seems, as of now, it will be on the ballot in both states, it will be even closer.

[concerned about politics]

There's the convention bounce we can look forward to. Kerry has held the spot light long enough. Now it's our turn. We get equal time, and the press owes us "big time."

[Fitzcarraldo]

How is the number "percent chance to win" estimated?

[concerned about politics]

Has anyone noticed the lack of Republican air time, and 24/7 Kerry news on FOX? The law says equal time.
It seems as though the Republicans been saving it up for a last minute slam dunk.
Any one else noticed this, or is it I'm just turning on the TV at a bad time?

[Fitzcarraldo]

If Al Queda realizes how close this election is they will refrain from any attack before the election, IMO.

[jdege]

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7
07/26	43.4%	265.6	35.0
08/02	42.1%	264.3	34.7
08/09	42.9%	265.2	34.5

[Irene Adler]

I have lived in Iowa since 1974. Bush will take Iowa. Iowa is much less liberal, overall, than Wisconsin is; the old farmer-labor history exists in Iowa but nothing to the extent of its history in Wisconsin. Both houses of the legislature have Republican majorities, and the Rat-governor is, well, unimpressive would be one good descriptor. I believe that Republican Senator Grassley is up for re-election which should boost Republican voter turnout.

Bush will take Iowa before he takes Wisconsin. If Wisconsin is in play, then Iowa is definitely, definitely in play for Bush. Bush is just the sort of man, in so many ways, that many, many Iowans like (unpretentious, kind-hearted, honest and genuine, devout) while Kerry is just the sort of many that Iowans do NOT like (east-cast arrogance, cold fish personality, etc.).

Frankly, I don't think it will be all that close in Iowa, by Nov.