Posted on 08/09/2004 7:34:59 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 97.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 94.5 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 71.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 63.8 | 6 | 0 |
California | 9.0 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 82.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 5.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 14.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 53.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 95.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 94.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 38.4 | 0 | 7 |
Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 92.0 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 83.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 27.0 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 15.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 30.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 33.3 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 57.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 52.0 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 38.0 | 0 | 4 |
New Jersey | 13.4 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 27.0 | 0 | 5 |
New York | 7.0 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 77.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 55.2 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 96.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 36.5 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 32.0 | 0 | 21 |
Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 96.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 68.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 83.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 25.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 52.0 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 42.0 | 0 | 10 |
Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 274 | 264 |
Hey, who knows? If the UN monitors our elections, Bush could probably win Illinois and Massachusetts handily, since the Dem machine won't be able to manufacture all of those votes for Kerry. I can dream can't I? :-)
I appreciate your hard work on this project. I always look forward to these posts. Having said that, I think that Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon and Wisconsin are closer than the chart indicates. If Michigan and Oregon have the gay marriage issue on the ballot Nov. 2, which it seems, as of now, it will be on the ballot in both states, it will be even closer.
Right now, the weighted probability graph has President Bush slightly behind Kerry. California, New York and Illinois may be skewing President Bush's numbers lower.
Kerry would get 538 - 265.17 = 272.83 EVs according to this view of the projection.
However, with the exception of 2 states, the Electoral Votes are winner take all, so if President Bush wins the blue states in the map on post #3, he wins the election.
How is the number "percent chance to win" estimated?
If Al Queda realizes how close this election is they will refrain from any attack before the election, IMO.
This is determined by the price for the futures contracts on TradeSports.com.
The prices range from 0 to 100, signifying what the political futures traders think President Bush's chances are of winning the Electoral Votes in each state.
For example, a price of $53.00 for a Florida contract means the traders think that President Bush has a 53.0% chance of winning Florida.
"I think that Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon and Wisconsin are closer than the chart indicates"
Michigan is full of Arabs; New Jersey is a hopelessly Democratic state. To be re-elected Bush needs Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and either West Virginia or Nevada. It's do-able, but no chip shot. People would like to punish Bush for invading Iraq, but once they comprehend what a jerk Kerry is they may decide to stick with Bush.
In fact, Kerry is pushing such a message, and his advisors have apparently factored the effect of an Al Queda attack into their campaign strategy.
If Al Queda realizes that the Kerry campaign has studied this, they may be more likely to lauch a devastating attack, killing thousands if not tens of thousands of Americans.
How true and the EC is in pretty safe ground for no way are 2/3 of the states going to change the constitution and give all the power to the urban left wing masses.
Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
Thanks jdege!
Terrorist feel safer with a Democrat in the White House. Under Clinton, they killed indiscriminately. They bombed, Clinton threatened. They bombed, Clinton threatened. They bombed, Clinton threatened. They bombed, Clinton threatened.
They bombed under Bush, and he set out to kick their ass for it.
Like the Viet Cong beat the U.S. because of Kerry, the terrorist need Kerry to help them win as well. There's nothing a terrorist would like more than a kinder, gentler war on terror.
The standard deviation is large - this race is too close to call.
this race is too close to call
No, it's not.
I put at 50-50.
50% chance that Bush wins by a wide margin, and 50% chance that Bush wins in an overwhelming blow-out.
West Virginia. Time to work on Wisconsin and shore up New Hampshire: Maine may be doable as well.
Bush will take Iowa before he takes Wisconsin. If Wisconsin is in play, then Iowa is definitely, definitely in play for Bush. Bush is just the sort of man, in so many ways, that many, many Iowans like (unpretentious, kind-hearted, honest and genuine, devout) while Kerry is just the sort of many that Iowans do NOT like (east-cast arrogance, cold fish personality, etc.).
Frankly, I don't think it will be all that close in Iowa, by Nov.
I actually like that chart. Bush was trending downward all through the Democrat Convention. Immediately following the Convention, his stock ticked UP!
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