2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, August 9, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	97.0	9	0
Alaska	94.5	3	0
Arizona	71.0	10	0
Arkansas	63.8	6	0
California	9.0	0	55
Colorado	82.0	9	0
Connecticut	5.0	0	7
Delaware	14.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.9	0	3
Florida	53.0	27	0
Georgia	95.0	15	0
Hawaii	5.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	9.0	0	21
Indiana	94.0	11	0
Iowa	38.4	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	92.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	27.0	0	4
Maryland	15.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	30.0	0	17
Minnesota	33.3	0	10
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	57.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	52.0	5	0
New Hampshire	38.0	0	4
New Jersey	13.4	0	15
New Mexico	27.0	0	5
New York	7.0	0	31
North Carolina	77.0	15	0
North Dakota	96.0	3	0
Ohio	55.2	20	0
Oklahoma	96.0	7	0
Oregon	36.5	0	7
Pennsylvania	32.0	0	21
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	96.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	68.0	11	0
Texas	97.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	5.0	0	3
Virginia	83.0	13	0
Washington	25.0	0	11
West Virginia	52.0	5	0
Wisconsin	42.0	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		274	264

[COBOL2Java]

Hey, who knows? If the UN monitors our elections, Bush could probably win Illinois and Massachusetts handily, since the Dem machine won't be able to manufacture all of those votes for Kerry. I can dream can't I? :-)

[no dems]

I appreciate your hard work on this project. I always look forward to these posts. Having said that, I think that Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon and Wisconsin are closer than the chart indicates. If Michigan and Oregon have the gay marriage issue on the ballot Nov. 2, which it seems, as of now, it will be on the ballot in both states, it will be even closer.

[concerned about politics]

There's the convention bounce we can look forward to. Kerry has held the spot light long enough. Now it's our turn. We get equal time, and the press owes us "big time."

[Momaw Nadon]

I don't quite understand that weighted probability thing, but you're projecting Bush loses? What do the weighted probabilities say about Kerry?

Right now, the weighted probability graph has President Bush slightly behind Kerry. California, New York and Illinois may be skewing President Bush's numbers lower.

Kerry would get 538 - 265.17 = 272.83 EVs according to this view of the projection.

However, with the exception of 2 states, the Electoral Votes are winner take all, so if President Bush wins the blue states in the map on post #3, he wins the election.

[Fitzcarraldo]

How is the number "percent chance to win" estimated?

[concerned about politics]

Has anyone noticed the lack of Republican air time, and 24/7 Kerry news on FOX? The law says equal time.
It seems as though the Republicans been saving it up for a last minute slam dunk.
Any one else noticed this, or is it I'm just turning on the TV at a bad time?

[Fitzcarraldo]

If Al Queda realizes how close this election is they will refrain from any attack before the election, IMO.

[Momaw Nadon]

How is the number "percent chance to win" estimated?

This is determined by the price for the futures contracts on TradeSports.com.

The prices range from 0 to 100, signifying what the political futures traders think President Bush's chances are of winning the Electoral Votes in each state.

For example, a price of $53.00 for a Florida contract means the traders think that President Bush has a 53.0% chance of winning Florida.

[doug9732]

"I think that Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon and Wisconsin are closer than the chart indicates"

Michigan is full of Arabs; New Jersey is a hopelessly Democratic state. To be re-elected Bush needs Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and either West Virginia or Nevada. It's do-able, but no chip shot. People would like to punish Bush for invading Iraq, but once they comprehend what a jerk Kerry is they may decide to stick with Bush.

[Fitzcarraldo]

An estimate of the amount that an Al Queda attack will change the "percent chance to win" values for each state is needed. Perhaps if the "Bush has failed to protect us" message is loud and clear in the battleground states, an Al Queda attack would cause the voters to shift to Kerry.

In fact, Kerry is pushing such a message, and his advisors have apparently factored the effect of an Al Queda attack into their campaign strategy.

If Al Queda realizes that the Kerry campaign has studied this, they may be more likely to lauch a devastating attack, killing thousands if not tens of thousands of Americans.

[democrats_nightmare]

Your map shows why the electoral system is so important. If it weren't for that, a few states full of liberals packed together in their stinky nests like sewer rats would be choosing all our representatives for us. The middle states, the most of America, would have no say, and we'd be living in a liberal utopia - the U.S.S.A., or worse!

How true and the EC is in pretty safe ground for no way are 2/3 of the states going to change the constitution and give all the power to the urban left wing masses.

[jdege]

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7
07/26	43.4%	265.6	35.0
08/02	42.1%	264.3	34.7
08/09	42.9%	265.2	34.5

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!

[concerned about politics]

If Al Queda realizes that the Kerry campaign has studied this, they may be more likely to lauch a devastating attack, killing thousands if not tens of thousands of Americans.

Terrorist feel safer with a Democrat in the White House. Under Clinton, they killed indiscriminately. They bombed, Clinton threatened. They bombed, Clinton threatened. They bombed, Clinton threatened. They bombed, Clinton threatened.
They bombed under Bush, and he set out to kick their ass for it.
Like the Viet Cong beat the U.S. because of Kerry, the terrorist need Kerry to help them win as well. There's nothing a terrorist would like more than a kinder, gentler war on terror.

[Fitzcarraldo]

The standard deviation is large - this race is too close to call.

[no dems]

People would like to punish Bush for invading Iraq, but once they comprehend what a jerk Kerry is they may decide to stick with Bush. Hopefully. The uninformed, American public puts a lot of stock in a persons likeability.

[jdege]

this race is too close to call

No, it's not.

I put at 50-50.

50% chance that Bush wins by a wide margin, and 50% chance that Bush wins in an overwhelming blow-out.

[Meldrim]

West Virginia. Time to work on Wisconsin and shore up New Hampshire: Maine may be doable as well.

[Irene Adler]

I have lived in Iowa since 1974. Bush will take Iowa. Iowa is much less liberal, overall, than Wisconsin is; the old farmer-labor history exists in Iowa but nothing to the extent of its history in Wisconsin. Both houses of the legislature have Republican majorities, and the Rat-governor is, well, unimpressive would be one good descriptor. I believe that Republican Senator Grassley is up for re-election which should boost Republican voter turnout.

Bush will take Iowa before he takes Wisconsin. If Wisconsin is in play, then Iowa is definitely, definitely in play for Bush. Bush is just the sort of man, in so many ways, that many, many Iowans like (unpretentious, kind-hearted, honest and genuine, devout) while Kerry is just the sort of many that Iowans do NOT like (east-cast arrogance, cold fish personality, etc.).

Frankly, I don't think it will be all that close in Iowa, by Nov.

[BradyLS]

I actually like that chart. Bush was trending downward all through the Democrat Convention. Immediately following the Convention, his stock ticked UP!