[Fitzcarraldo]

If Al Queda realizes how close this election is they will refrain from any attack before the election, IMO.

[Fitzcarraldo]

An estimate of the amount that an Al Queda attack will change the "percent chance to win" values for each state is needed. Perhaps if the "Bush has failed to protect us" message is loud and clear in the battleground states, an Al Queda attack would cause the voters to shift to Kerry.

In fact, Kerry is pushing such a message, and his advisors have apparently factored the effect of an Al Queda attack into their campaign strategy.

If Al Queda realizes that the Kerry campaign has studied this, they may be more likely to lauch a devastating attack, killing thousands if not tens of thousands of Americans.