I don't quite understand that weighted probability thing, but you're projecting Bush loses? What do the weighted probabilities say about Kerry?
Right now, the weighted probability graph has President Bush slightly behind Kerry. California, New York and Illinois may be skewing President Bush's numbers lower.
Kerry would get 538 - 265.17 = 272.83 EVs according to this view of the projection.
However, with the exception of 2 states, the Electoral Votes are winner take all, so if President Bush wins the blue states in the map on post #3, he wins the election.