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Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in Florida (Kerry 50% W 43% Nader 2%)
americanresearchgroup ^ | 08/06/04 | americanresearchgroup

Posted on 08/06/2004 11:08:58 AM PDT by KQQL

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida.

Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2004; arg; kerrybounce; polls
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To: zarf
I think we are polled out. Most of this stuff is making about as much sense as the economy.

I think you are right! How you can take a poll of, say, "1600 voters nationwide" (which is not untypical), and then tout the results as indicative of any "trend" is just beyond me, even with adding in the "weighting" factors (which I'm as dubious about as the "sampling" much of the time, LOL!)...

41 posted on 08/06/2004 11:31:18 AM PDT by 88keys
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To: KQQL

39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats

So an accurate poll, riiiiiiight...


42 posted on 08/06/2004 11:32:26 AM PDT by RockinRight (Liberalism IS the status quo)
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To: William Creel
ARG seems to have an extreme Democratic bias.

That's what they are paid for.

43 posted on 08/06/2004 11:32:51 AM PDT by af_vet_1981
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Comment #44 Removed by Moderator

To: KQQL
Another bad poll for GWB - Obviously FL is key - I just can't see FL going for Kerry - but if it does this election will be over early Nov 2nd -

What surprises me is ARG is usually biased and not a poll I give much weight to - With that said, the weightings for this poll aren't all that crazy - A 6pt spread for the DEM's isn't that nuts (nationally that is about right - for FL that might be 2pts high) - But still a 7pt lead among LV sucks for us -

Here's hoping another poll comes out soon -

45 posted on 08/06/2004 11:39:34 AM PDT by POA2
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To: POA2

Who's doing the poll? Russert??


46 posted on 08/06/2004 11:42:56 AM PDT by Sacajaweau (God Bless Our Troops!!)
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To: KQQL

6% heavy on the Dims, sample of only 600. Real fair.


47 posted on 08/06/2004 11:44:22 AM PDT by RightthinkinAmerican (Democrats aren't playing with a full deck, they only use the race cards.)
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To: KQQL

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1186444/posts
Strategic Vision Poll Results: FL (08/06) - Bush Cheney 48% - Kerry—Edwards 47% - Nader-Comejo 1% (801 LV)


48 posted on 08/06/2004 11:45:27 AM PDT by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: KQQL

McBride leads Jeb Bush by 10 points in 2002.

Somebody bring the swift vets ad to florida.

We have many retired vets down here.

Kerry has zero support among the vets I have spoken to.


49 posted on 08/06/2004 11:47:02 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE!)
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To: KQQL
ARG is full of crap. A poll will say whatever the pollster wants it to say. Who you poll is the key.

Latest Conspiracy Guy Poll

Bush : 65%
Nader : 25%
Kerry : 2%
Kucinich : 8%
50 posted on 08/06/2004 11:51:01 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (They are where you least expect. Look around and you'll see them too.)
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To: finnman69

How accurate is Strategic Vision?


51 posted on 08/06/2004 11:51:08 AM PDT by BunnySlippers (Must get moose and squirrel ... B. Badanov)
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To: finnman69

Strategic Vision is a Republican polling outfit, should be taken with a grain of salt.
The truth is probably somewhere in between these two polls, i.e. Kerry is leading by 3-4% right now.
This is bad, but not too bad at this stage - I hope it is going to be tied after the convention, and then it may go for Bush by 1-2% in the best case scenario.

If Kerry still leads in FL (or OH, or MO) one month from now, then W is on his way out.


52 posted on 08/06/2004 11:53:48 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: Always Right
bingo.....believe it Kerry, don't campaign here

In florida I have seen many cars with Bush 04 and NONE with kerry

Jeb will loose big: Terry McAwful......right


53 posted on 08/06/2004 11:56:23 AM PDT by The Wizard (DemonRATS: enemies of America)
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To: Salamander
Apparently only the opinions of the counties surrounding DC and Baltimore matter.

Anne Arundel county went for Bush last Presidential Election. But admittedly PG, Montgomery, Howard and Baltimore counties kill this state politically.
54 posted on 08/06/2004 11:57:13 AM PDT by CollegeRepublican
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To: WoodstockCat

Just raise the number of demonrats and get any number you wish


55 posted on 08/06/2004 11:57:22 AM PDT by The Wizard (DemonRATS: enemies of America)
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To: adam_az

Two very recent polls show Bush increasing his lead in Ohio


56 posted on 08/06/2004 11:57:38 AM PDT by MrChips (ARD)
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To: BunnySlippers

Strategic Vision Poll is a REPUBLICAN pollster.

Only Mason Dixon and Insider advantage polls
are reliable in FL


57 posted on 08/06/2004 11:58:27 AM PDT by KQQL
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To: diamond6

the honest polls came out last week....this is one of the new improved polls.....


58 posted on 08/06/2004 11:58:54 AM PDT by The Wizard (DemonRATS: enemies of America)
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To: The Wizard

FAct:
IN Fl there are more reg Dems than Repbs


59 posted on 08/06/2004 12:01:01 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: The Wizard

I have seen two yard signs for sKerry/Backwards. One of them is a woman lawyer's home.


60 posted on 08/06/2004 12:01:59 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE!)
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