Posted on 08/06/2004 11:08:58 AM PDT by KQQL
John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.
In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.
These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida.
Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.
The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
I think you are right! How you can take a poll of, say, "1600 voters nationwide" (which is not untypical), and then tout the results as indicative of any "trend" is just beyond me, even with adding in the "weighting" factors (which I'm as dubious about as the "sampling" much of the time, LOL!)...
39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats
So an accurate poll, riiiiiiight...
That's what they are paid for.
What surprises me is ARG is usually biased and not a poll I give much weight to - With that said, the weightings for this poll aren't all that crazy - A 6pt spread for the DEM's isn't that nuts (nationally that is about right - for FL that might be 2pts high) - But still a 7pt lead among LV sucks for us -
Here's hoping another poll comes out soon -
Who's doing the poll? Russert??
6% heavy on the Dims, sample of only 600. Real fair.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1186444/posts
Strategic Vision Poll Results: FL (08/06) - Bush Cheney 48% - Kerry—Edwards 47% - Nader-Comejo 1% (801 LV)
McBride leads Jeb Bush by 10 points in 2002.
Somebody bring the swift vets ad to florida.
We have many retired vets down here.
Kerry has zero support among the vets I have spoken to.
How accurate is Strategic Vision?
Strategic Vision is a Republican polling outfit, should be taken with a grain of salt.
The truth is probably somewhere in between these two polls, i.e. Kerry is leading by 3-4% right now.
This is bad, but not too bad at this stage - I hope it is going to be tied after the convention, and then it may go for Bush by 1-2% in the best case scenario.
If Kerry still leads in FL (or OH, or MO) one month from now, then W is on his way out.
In florida I have seen many cars with Bush 04 and NONE with kerry
Two very recent polls show Bush increasing his lead in Ohio
Strategic Vision Poll is a REPUBLICAN pollster.
Only Mason Dixon and Insider advantage polls
are reliable in FL
the honest polls came out last week....this is one of the new improved polls.....
FAct:
IN Fl there are more reg Dems than Repbs
I have seen two yard signs for sKerry/Backwards. One of them is a woman lawyer's home.
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