Posted on 08/06/2004 11:08:58 AM PDT by KQQL
John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.
In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.
These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida.
Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.
The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats.
LOL at the sampling.
LOL!
I would give the poll a bit more credibility if it counted only registered voters who are likely to vote.
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.
Yawn...
You beat me by 20 seconds.
You beat me by 20 seconds.
You beat me by 20 seconds.
ARG sauces their polls. Most of the time they don't agree with other polls taken at the same time.
Too many non-affiliates and Republicans under sampled. The poll stated interviewed and that worries me. It's an up or down question but with multiple Q/A could be slanted.
I see very FEW Kerry stickers on cars and MANY W-04's
(Oh, I'm in JAX)
And what you saw at the horse farm smelled better.
"These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida"
They probably hung up on the ones that said Bush.
I live in [overwhelmingly Republican] Western Maryland and in 43 years of life on this planet, not ONCE has any pollster ever asked me anything.
Apparently only the opinions of the counties surrounding DC and Baltimore matter.
About half of the residents of Florida are still up north this time of year.
Any poll that doesn't include the millions of snow birds that migrate to Florida in the fall (pre election), can't be accurate.
Most of the snow birds are retired, conservative, and pro Bush. And they do vote.
Ask anyone who lives in Florida (as I do), they'll tell you that many neighborhoods are ghost towns during the summer months.
But come late september, you'll see all the snowbirds moving back.
They vote here . . . their vote (and dollars in the local economy) make a big difference.
Telephone polls only prove that more democrats are sitting at home answering their phones all day. Republicans are less likely to answer the phone because they're at work or don't feel like talking to telemarketers.
ARG is consistently more pro-Kerry than other polls. I'll wait for Mason Dixon.
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